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Comment by meitham | Hacker News Reader

He would be safer though in Russia. It is far easier for the CIA to kidnap him illegally out of France, if they fail to extradite him legally. France might protest such an event a lot but it will unlikely lead to a military confrontation. The US would never likely do this in Russia.

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but it will unlikely lead to a military confrontation

You're saying if the CIA does so in Russia, it would lead to military confrontation?

Ed Snowden is a card to play for Russia but a quite small one.

Actually, the biggest risk he is facing is the same as Julian Assange. At some point, a change in policy in Russia (eg getting something back in return from the US) can lead to him being extradited to the U.S.

As for the U.S, I think it's not a big deal as well. His damage is done. All the incentive the U.S has in this case is to make example of him.

There is little political incentive for politicians to follow. Maybe some PR for the president who manages to get him back, but aside from that, Ed Snowden is not a big incentive for anyone at this point. No way anyone is going to war for him.

Russia doesn't give a shit about Snowden, of course, but Putin cares a lot about his own image of power. Such event would be a huge slap in the face for both the country and him personally - it would make Russia look weak and that's of great importance for their internal politics and Putin's ability to keep the public support and stay in power. So it wouldn't go unpunished, you can bet on that, he would be forced to demonstrate the power somehow... not for Snowden, but because of his voters...

Putin is free not to tell anything to his voters, as always. See Smolenkov, a high profile spy who safely left Russia. Voters don’t care much.

Someone voluntarily leaving (even illegally) is not in the same class as public figures being kidnapped off the street. One is an individual matter and the other makes everyone feel unsafe.

Again, the biggest problem for Ed Snowden is when Putin decides to hand over Snowden.

Snowden is a card with an expiration date. Sooner or later Russia will try to use it to get something back.

If they really wanted to they could. They exfiltrated a spy[1] who was reluctant to leave in 2017.

[1]https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/09/politics/russia-us-spy-extr...

Exfiltration is different than kidnapping. Presumably the alleged spy wanted to leave Russia, in order to avoid extensive torture. Snowden wouldn't leave Russia just to receive extensive torture.

But yet somehow this involuntary thing would be possible in France, yet apparently unlikely in Russia? It’s not as though once in France he’d realize, “Yeah, I don’t mind, let them kidnap me, I’ll make it easier on them here in France.”

In most locations, one doesn't have a choice when faced with armed police. In France, those police who are on USA payroll don't have to be subtle about that employment. In Russia, they really do have to be subtle.

Unfortunately there is a list of European nations who were either complicit in CIA kidnappings (forced renditions) or where the criminal persecution for such events was ineffective lacking the political will to offend the US. Take this case for example

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Omar_case

What would be the consequences of the US illegally deporting Snowden from France like that? What would be printed in the newspapers?

"Snowden goes missing while hiking in Alps; assumed to be buried in glacier crevasse"

Presuming he does something stupid like that, and this cover would ruin US goal of making an example.

He wouldn't have to choose to go hiking, or even venture within 100 km of the mountains, in order for that headline to be reported.

USA has plenty of whistleblower examples anyway. We've tortured Chelsea Manning for years. Others who have been punished, to varying degrees, include Bill Binney, Reality Winner, and John Kiriakou. Presumably there are others of whom we're not aware. These people have done really small things to rouse the ire of the TLAs. How could they punish Snowden in a proportional fashion, anyway?

Oh there would be terrible outrage. And then people would get on with their lives. Whistleblowers get thrown under the nearest bus, it is a law of nature.

"CIA apprehends former NSA contractor charged with espionage" would be a factually correct headline.

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