If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say the conditional move means that both next values are prefetched into cache, whereas a branch means that fetch doesn’t happen until the comparison is made.
Conditional moves create a data dependency, and thus do not involve speculative execution. While the program can explicitly try to preload both possible values (and can benefit from doing so) the processor doesn't ever do this automatically. Other instructions can still be executed (out-of-order) but the path of execution does not change.
With a branch, rather than waiting for the results of the comparison to be known, the processor guesses at the result and chooses a path of execution. It thus executes the fetch immediately, but (about) half the time it's the wrong fetch. If after the original load completes it realizes that it guessed the wrong side of the branch, an 'exception' occurs, the speculative work is thrown away, and the execution begins again with the correct branch.