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Comment by ralfd | Hacker News Reader

> If one were to run the numbers of just 2% of the population in China owning some fraction of Bitcoin, this could raise the single Bitcoin price to above $10,000.

I mean ... faulty reasoning or not: Bitcoin is currently at $10,240.

Of course I guessed he didn't believe his own reasoning, as when the article was written in November 2013 Bitcoin was $600 and he could have tenfold and more his own money.

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It's also been at $20k. You could basically throw a dart at a wall and hit a price that bitcoin has been at some point. Just a coincidence you read this today.

Not if you hit $30k, $50k, $100k or any of the other prices bitcoin has never been traded for.

.. not yet. I'm sure it'll hit all of those numbers for at least a few minutes in the future.

On my wall the numbers only go up to the actual values bitcoin has traded at. And $10k today is only half the peak.

Anyway, the point is, it is a coincidence, nothing more.

It might be a coincidence, but it's not the kind of coincidence where you can give a number that sounds like a legit prediction but is sure to be correct at some point in time. Which you seem to have implied in your post.

Had he given a number above $20k he would't have been right at any point in time. And bitcoin might have never hit $10k, which would also left him being wrong.

Which is less than half of the peak value, I don't know what your point is? If we were having this conversation a year ago or a year from today, his guess would have been way off. That's why its a coincidence.

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