Extremely unlikely. They won't even be allowed to clear Euros.
Stock options do the same, with a very flawed mathematics (assuming a random walk while having a fat tail distribution). Good luck.
No-deal would be so damaging that the markets don't think it's going to happen, and that props up the Pound. So it takes a lot of political madness to convince the market that the worst is happening, and that's when the Pound starts plumbing historical depths. Then the madness recedes, and the Pound bobs back up again.
Brexit is a whole great big seething can of uncertainty. Just look at the last few years.
How do you price in all those disparate outcomes into the same price?
[0] UKs own requirements for Brexit are mutually exclusive 1) No customs union, 2) No Northern Ireland border, and 3) No border inside the UK. These three can't exist in the same deal. The only real way to properly Brexit would be to cut Northern Ireland lose or risk reigniting the Troubles by violating the Good Friday Agreement.
Then you can't make the claim that the pound will continue to devalue. The pound is volatile, but you can't make predictions about the long term value with certainty.
Something being priced in requires there to be at least some certainty about what will happen.
Why on earth would that be when it has not come to pass yet?
OTOH, as there is considerable and evolving uncertainty about even the short-term Brexit prospects (as in, will the UK leave, and if so when and on what terms), estimates of the likelihood of various long-term scenarios are likely to also be in considerable flux,even before considering potential evolution in estimates of the effects of each potential scenario.
“The market knows the future and has already completely priced it in” is disproved every time the market moves, but people still like to treat it as some kind of deep wisdom.
Well at best you can know the future probabilistically. The fair price of flipping a coin and getting $2 on heads is $1, but once the coin is flipped, you have new information, and the fair price is either $2 (if it landed heads) or $0 (if tails).
Wait, someone finally proved P ≠ NP?
Conditioned on Brexit actually happening, a prediction of a weaker pound is reasonable.
You can also hide money in Switzerland, Liechtenstein or other offshore centers. But if you know the market, you know that it has gotten a little bit tricky, especially since last year.
the EU can ban EU firms from using LCH, but they can't stop firms outside the EU using Euros
it'll just end up in a situation like the eurodollar
1. Joining the EU
2. Making reforms (Thatcher)
3. Found oil in the Northern Sea.
The oil is gone and they leave the EU. Lets see how that goes.
Please also take this into consideration: https://hbr.org/2019/08/did-austerity-in-the-uk-lead-to-the-...
3. Found oil in the Northern Sea.
Could you elaborate on this or add a link to an article that explores this under-mentioned reason as one of the contributing factors for the UK's decision to pull out of the EU?
Were the oil revenues very significant in the previous decades? Have they tapered off due to the U.S. shale boom?[1] Did the UK see this development coming? [2]
[1] Shale gas in the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_in_the_United_States
[2] How The Shale Boom Turned The World Upside Down
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/04/21/how-the-shal...
I did not make this statement. But
1. I once saw a graph that showed that the re-rise of the UK strongly correlated with oil production. The correlation does not imply causation but it was quite stunning. I looked several times for the article but did not find it again. But it made me always doubt that it was only Thatchers reforms the reinvented the UK.
2. I did not say that the UK is pulling out of the EU because of sinking oil revenues. But please consider the article that I already posted: https://hbr.org/2019/08/did-austerity-in-the-uk-lead-to-the-...
UK Oil production: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_the_Un...
So there may be a connection (less social services, less income from oil, frustrated people). London voted to stay, it was poor areas that voted "leave".