Once Apple supports WebM.
Once chipset manufacturers produce WebM optimized hardware decoders.
Once handset, set-top, etc. manufacturers purchase and integrate those WebM hardware decoders.
Once handset, set-top, etc. manufacturers develop or license software players that support WebM encoded video and file format.
Could happen the other way around. But it ain't likely.
Google drove the cost of smartphone OSes down to as near to zero as patent law will allow.
I'd say that is a game changer.
How much does WebM cost?
With Apple, the product is the device and you are the buyer. With Google, the product is you and the advertiser is the buyer. They are each winning their respective games. Superficially they are competitors, but if there is a winner, then there's a loser. How can you look at either company and consider it the loser?
Actually the more I think about it the more non-sensical your original statement and this conversation becomes. ;)
With only three or four percent of the market, Apple swallows up more profit share than the largest three phone makers combined (in the neighborhood of 40 percent). That's an astounding number, and it doesn't even include non-phone devices. At the same time, Android had tremendous growth in 2010, inevitably passing Apple in unit sales rate. It's a bit glib to simply say Google therefore beats Apple in 2010. There is nuance, and either company can be painted in the foreground.
Both companies seem to be doing wildly well with their respective mobile strategies.
Also, not to nitpick, but 'Java variant' seems inaccurate. Code is written in actual Java (not a variant, as far as I'm aware), and compiled to bytecode to run on the Dalvik VM (not a JVM variant).