https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20908726
For those commenting that the discharge rate is too slow in the test, or the depth of discharge was fudged... the tests were run with a high discharge rate combined with 100% charge at storage.
> Figure 23 shows the projected fractional capacity of these NMC532/graphite cells as a function of time in years in a scenario where the cells are cycled once per day (100% DOD to 4.3 V) in a cycling event that takes 6 hours. It is also assumed that during the remaining time, cells are stored at full state of charge. It is clear from Figure 23 that these cells would provide an exceptionally long total driving range in an EV if the cells were maintained at an average tem- perature of 20°C. Even if the cells were continually at 40°C, 10 years of lifetime to 70% capacity and a total driven distance of 1,200,000 km is projected. It is worth noting that only 3650 cycles would be required for this total driven distance and 3700 cycles have been demonstrated in Figure 16.
> Most important to realize is that Figure 23 assumes 100% DOD cycling on every cycle and storage at full state of charge. If the reader reviews the literature data in Figures 1 and 2, the reader will realize that the lifetime will be much better in situations where the DOD is limited and in situations where cells are stored at lower states of charge. Admittedly, the projections in Figure 23 use the incredibly simple model described by equation 1. It is our opinion that more sophisticated models will lead to even longer lifetime projections.