Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill
scmp.com
scmp.com
Beijing specifically instructed Lam not to give in to any demands a week ago. Lam capitulating is Beijing capitulating, and Beijing is not going to capitulate with 70th anniversary coming up and activated mainland nationalism. Beijing is all in. For mainlanders, after how events have been portrayed by state media, Lam is basically acquiescing to terrorists. The situation is developing and I think there's a very narrow set of outcomes where this would not backfire spectacularly.
Forcing the issue this way may appear pointless, but it's the possibly superior option to sliding gently into that good night.
Lam’s family has British citizenship. That means she may be able to share her side of the story down the road.
Her situation might seem reasonable, forgivable, even, once she shares the facts. Activating the ERO, however, would be unforgivable.
If anybody ever sees her again, sure.
>The Chinese central government rejected Lam’s proposal to withdraw the extradition bill and ordered her not to yield to any of the protesters’ other demands at that time, three individuals with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
This is endorsed and approved by Beijing, she already declared the bill dead this is just a matter of wording. Legally it can be brought back as laws are always evolving and Hong Kong needs an extradition treaty with other jurisdiction including another system in its own country.
For Mainland Chinese citizen the narrative will be altered, but will still be seen as symbolic defeat and for Hong Kong Chinese citizens it will be a symbolic win.
As it is said in order to win larger battle one needs to lose smaller one, extradition bill was already dead, now it's withdrawn until it's introduced by someone else later. In larger picture it will be sacrificing pawn.
If the violent protest continue, then it will be seen as challenging one country two system as the Hong Kong CEO proclaimed in her pre-recorded message. She is just saying in an indirect way this is her last ditch effort to salvage the situation.
Hope this brings down the tempers and hopefully this put an end to violent protests, which has destroyed city and society. Violence can never be a solution, only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change.
Violence, sadly, is almost always the solution. A tough pill to swallow.
Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time."
All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun. All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to revolt and string up the members of an oppressive regime from lantern poles. The Founding Fathers understood that more than anything else. The First Amendment is worthless without the Second Amendment.
Violence should never be the first (or even second) answer, but it is the ultimate answer, and should never be excluded on principle.
It reminds me of this. https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-violence-that-help...
"...found that major nonviolent campaigns are successful 53% of the time, while violent campaigns are successful only 26% of the time."
The Protest Tipping Point (podcast): https://www.npr.org/2019/06/25/736007317/the-protest-tipping...
The Magic Number Behind Protests: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/06/25/735536434/the-...
MLK may have been the face of it, but the man that really brought the government to the negotiating table was Malcolm X... Because of the implicit threat that if non-violent resistance won't work, here's a guy that is perfectly happy to have his supporters sit outside congress, armed with assault rifles, exercising their second amendment rights.
Non-violent protest often wins because the powers that be want to avoid antagonising the violent arm of the movement.
Not really a non-violent protest wins because majority move away from a violent group to a non-violent group.
So it makes a violent person who already has fear, more scared of being left alone. Non-violent protests need to be planned and require strategy in such a way, it helps those non-violent protestors to self-defend with the use of non-violent means, i.e. using deterrents which create fear in aggressors mind on use of violence.
However, I will also agree that usually violence is involved, even if one side doesn't participate. Gandhi referred to the people who participated in non-violent protests as soldiers because he knew that many would die.
I don't think violence is the ultimate answer. The ultimate answer is the answer that works. There are many paths to the same location. It's probably best to review your options before you decide which ones to exclude.
Mostly self-governing colonies with Parliament exercising some limited control over them turn into mostly self-governing states with a Federal government exercising some limited control over them.
Pretty much the only things that changed short-term were foreign policy and what kinds of imported goods were taxed.
It was the first successful war of independence [3], lead to establishing the modern elected head of state, outlawed explicit nobility, and inspired fanatical devotion to an earthly cause.
For the previous hundred years, Jacobite rebellions in Europe had been crushed, seemingly due mainly to tactical failure (e.g. Culloden, the last pitched battle in Britain).
But then, a few years after the American Revolution, the French: guerilla warfare, beheaded head of state, banished nobility, fanatical devotion to an earthly cause.
(Interestingly, the French Revolution occurred right around the time they hit 50% literacy [4], increasing the viability of written propaganda.)
Then Haiti launched the second successful independence war in 1791, kicking off centuries of decolonization.
The American Revolution was a break from history.
We haven't cycled back to pitched battles, if anything guerilla warfare is still under active development and experiencing significant growth. Propaganda, as an instrument of war, is only becoming more important. And colonial aggressors continue to lose when on someone else's home field.
1. https://archive.org/details/indiantreatiespr00vand/page/78
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Join,_or_Die
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_of_independence
4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy#/media/File:Illiterac...
A non-violent protestor is a person who does not fear anything, and the person who doesn't fear is the most powerful one.
Violence is a result of fear, that's the reason need to use weapons and aids to fight back to increase the chances of survival. A true warrior is a fearless person who respond to violence with non-violence and make violent person ashamed of themselves.
It's very easy to fight violently, every animal do it including us. We are at least evolved to tame our violent urges and that's what makes us a human.
> All political power emanates from barrel of gun
This is the famous quote of Mao Zedong (毛泽东). "Power flows from the barrel of gun"
You might believe in it like every violent protestor. I don't. I believe power flows from the depth of heart and mind based on our connection with universe, nature and our endeavor to keep it balanced without resorting to violence.
> Second amendment
It's not a sacred thing, there are many places in this world way more safe and peaceful without the second amendment.
It's a beautiful idea really. But when you are given no option other than to fight, do you think it's wrong for them to do so? Jewish, Armenians, Chinese under Japanese occupation? Might have not mattered, might have. I guess it depends on the person. An exaggeration of course compared to the issue at hand, but it seems wishful idealism. In some cases, yes, it works. But when your adversary doesn't care, it's quite ineffective. Game-theory wise I think equal repercussion works quite well, where violence is met with violence in order to prevent it from happening. Sure not always, but if there is no punishment it's simply much too advantageous to use violence if it solves the problem.
I mean school bullies probably won't stop unless you hit them or they get some sort of punishment. Sure you'll feel probably mighty wise if you don't resort to violence or any kind of resistance, but it's unhelpful if it doesn't stop it. And in the meantime you'll be suffering tremendously.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2014/07/24/the-proven...
The circumstance where non-violent behavior works is very specific and is best when there's:
A) much stronger opponent (British Empire, Chinese government)
B) level of civilization where both parties do not want to engage in violence (the majority of modern civilizations)
C) good chance for massive unrest if violence were to happen (no ruler wants to deal with domestic terrorism and internal squabbles, unless of course your regime is breaking up already and that's the only way to keep control)
The more primal the opponent, the worse are your chances. Aztecs would have welcomed non-violent behavior with open hands, they would have cheerfully enslaved people who didn't put up a fight. The reason why they stopped was basically the destruction of their civilization by the Spaniards. But maybe I'm mixing here war with protesting, which is a more of problem after you have lost and are under the oppressive regime. Then your options are limited: it's either violent insurgency or non-violent protesting. In modern world luckily we have electronic mass-media that helps immensely with the non-violence.
“A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.”
That's the part you got right: https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cxz64b/300_uncut_...
But to just speak of violent protestors, while ignoring the triads and people with odd markings doing odd things, the police brutality, and things like this, is also not even close to a complete picture: https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cv9y4c/protesters...
> A true warrior is a fearless person who respond to violence with non-violence and make violent person ashamed of themselves.
You cannot make a person have empathy, you can appeal to it, where it exists. Otherwise, you have to defeat them. Not "crush" them, but disarm them and establish boundaries. Without military defeat of Nazi Germany, anything like reflection or reconciliation wasn't even thinkable. As a matter of fact, without their military defeat, we wouldn't know most of what we know about their atrocities today, they were set to purge all evidence as thoroughly as they had exterminated people.
Factual reality, which is at stake, is something even more important than peace -- in the same way atoms are more important than water or orange juice, without atoms, you can't have either. Peace can always erupt again, but destroyed facts remain destroyed, and that being done well enough, can make genuine peace impossbile. A static state of submission is not peace, peace without truthfulness is not peace, and low-intensity people getting disappeared, not asking what happened to your neighbour, is not peace.
ignorance
doesn't hurt anybody
with the exception of those
who can be hurt
because nobody knows about it
Violence is a means to enforce ones will on another. It is only one of such means. It is the mean by which the entire legal system falls back on. It is the mean by which Americans won their independence. It is the mean by which bad people do evil things.
>This is the famous quote of Mao Zedong (毛泽东). "Power flows from the barrel of gun"
And it is the truth, especially if we see take this to be an analogy for strength (before guns, it was swords, before swords it was sticks, before sticks it was fists, these days it might not be guns at the national level, and one day it may be something else entirely).
>It's not a sacred thing, there are many places in this world way more safe and peaceful without the second amendment.
Generally with the backing (perhaps unwillingly) of the nation that has the second amendment, and even those places still use guns to enforce their will on those who do not play along. The smarter areas use it as a last resort and not the first response, but they still use it.
The US Revolution truly began forming after British soldiers started gunning down colonial civilians. For example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Massacre
>"John Adams wrote that the "foundation of American independence was laid" on [the date of the massacre], and Samuel Adams and other Patriots used annual commemorations (Massacre Day) to encourage public sentiment toward independence.
The colonists didn't just shoot the evil British tyrants telling them to go away because of their oppressive policies. They probably would have lost the war if that's how it started. That's not how you start a revolution. It started because the British fired the first unfair shots (or at least that was the perception).
Some protestors have been quoted saying they want a protestor, or a police officer, to die and become a martyr for either side so that a true revolution can begin. While the citizens of Hong Kong absolutely deserve democracy and civil rights, wishing death is not the way to do it. If the government does start the violence towards civilians of their own accord, with cruelty and brutality, perhaps reciprocal violence in self-defense may at some point become justifiable, but this is a very fine line and only a hypothetical scenario to be considered in response to grave danger, not something anyone should ever wish for.
Just an ordinary citizen, whose opinion can be disregarded.
Connection with the universe does not change political structures.
Regardless, violence is relatively at a historically all-time low[1].
[1] https://stevenpinker.com/pages/frequently-asked-questions-ab...
The post you responded to did not say "don't resist". It said "don't use violence".
Peaceful protest has some track record of bringing down systems, ending regimes, and enacting lasting change. Violent protest has a worse track record; it mainly alienates the man on the street and it cannot build consensus.
War can bring about lasting change, but only if your side wins. The difference between war and violent protest is that war implies two sides, each of which has a strong consensus. Violent protest only implies factions. Eliding this difference is a mistake.
This is not to say that violence is unjustified, just that violent protests almost never enact lasting change (because they do not create consensus).
> All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun
All political power emanates from consensus. Violence and coercion can only replace consensus for short periods of time. Consensus can be established and maintained through propaganda and brainwashing - which is frightening and complicates the picture.
If Mao was right then there would be no difference between a gunman and a police officer with a gun. Of course there is every difference in the world between those two figures, a fact proven by how differently we react to them.
> All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to revolt and string up the members of an oppressive regime from lantern poles. The Founding Fathers understood that more than anything else. The First Amendment is worthless without the Second Amendment.
I agree: sovereignty is defined by the ability to make exceptions. Citizens are only sovereign insofar as they can choose to remove themselves from their obligation to their nation.
My sense is that peaceful protests are the best way to bring about lasting change in China. What the anti-PRC groups need to do is build consensus. Once they've done that, if change does not follow, then war is on the table. But until consensus exists, I believe that violence will fail spectacularly.
The 2nd Amendment was never (and still isn't) meant to ensure the right of people to violently resist or overthrow the government. The way to influence the US government is to become involved in the process, not (threaten to) shoot people. If that's ever not the case, you don't have a country, you have a failed state.
It's a persistent myth that this is not the case. The US was born in revolution and the founders were very concerned about the possibility of a tyrannical government.
Nah, this is totally wrong. The Constitution explicitly gives Congress power over state militias to suppress insurrections:
"The Congress shall have Power To... provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions" [1]
Further, the Militia Act of 1792 allows the president to take control of State militias, and this was famously used by George Washington himself to quell the Whiskey Rebellion.
> Madison famously wrote that state militias would keep a federal army in check.
He did, yes, but he was talking about States vs. the Federal government. He also later saw how bad militias were at being an army (a point Washington argued over and over again) in the War of 1812 and changed his position in favor of a strong, standing, Federal army. And FWIW, we put the question of States keeping the Federal government in check to bed in the Civil War.
[1]: https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcri...
Whether or not Madison (or Washington or whoever) changed his mind at some point does not change the fact that this is the purpose of the Second Amendment. No other laws (like the ones you cited) change this fact, nor does the Civil War.
You can argue that this interpretation is obsolete, but it's the interpretation that was predominant when the Constitution was ratified. Denying that is ahistorical.
Militias were explicitly under the control of both Congress and the president, by law and the Constitution. And militias were used to quell rebellion, not to serve it. These are facts. I understand they're counter to your and others' interpretations, but that doesn't make them any less factual.
And when you consider:
- 2A only applied to militias
- Any "security from tyranny" was States being free from Federal tyranny
- the Civil War erased any doubt about the States rebelling against the Federal government
- The last Militia Act in 1909 made militias into the _National_ Guard
then you have to concede 2A is just a relic from a time when the US had neither the resources nor the political will to create and maintain a standing army.
But as soon as that contract breaks down, i.e. the government stops listening to you, then that contract is breached and generally trouble starts. It gets (arguably) even worse if the government falls entirely, because then you get the kind of lawless marauding you had before any government.
Obviously it's and absolute last ditch, not taken lightly and very undesirable. But, to have the option, is true sovereignty to me.
Basically, the idea that 2A would let us protect any semblance of our current way if life is fantasy. The most you could hope for is to join a resistance and dig in for a generations long, probably species destroying authoritarian regime to run its course.
My understanding is another bill would need to go through the original process that first introduced it which is a longer process.
>For Mainland Chinese citizen the narrative will be altered, but will still be seen as symbolic defeat and for Hong Kong Chinese citizens it will be a symbolic win.
Any other time and I would agree, but Xi just scored "people's leader" on August 25th, 70th anniversary is on October 1st, "symbolic defeat" is not in the cards. Together with rejection of Lam's proposal and effort to appease protesters as little as last week, I think we can either view this development as Beijing dealing with Lam cracking without warning. Or this as a calculated ploy to justify ERO on the assumption that the olive branch will not be well received by protesters. Lam's speech politely but explicitly said 4/5 demands would not be met.
That’s facially not true. The American Revolution, the French Revolution, the Bangladeshi War of Independence, Irish independence, etc. History is full of examples where the right to self determination had to be vindicated with guns.
Categorically delegitimizing violence against an oppressive state is a bad precedent. Obviously it should not be accepted as routine. But it is an important safety valve. The Irish won their independence, after hundreds of years of oppression at the hands of the British, by starting a shooting war that the British could not put down while maintaining appearances among the community of nations. If violence had been categorically delegitimized in the early 20th century, the British could have used more heavy handed measures to put down the Irish Revolution while the community of nations looked the other way.
Now, whether Hong Kong wants to or has the capability to do that against China is an entirely separate matter.
Peaceful protests can work sometimes. Other times they do nothing. Same with armed resistance. Declaring one or the other to be the only possible way to bring about change is in direct contradiction to the facts.
Can you give an example? Every example I can think of right now that had a massacre of innocent protestors and no armed struggle either led to some change later down the road (eg. galvanizing the movement, reforms, or total collapse of the opressor), or became a major problem for the oppressor later down the track. A massacre is not that easily forgotten.
Just some random examples: The Polish protests of 1970, resulted in 42 people killed and protestors were overpowered by tanks and military, but the killings arguably accelerated the popularity of the movement. Look up the story of "Janek Wiśniewski" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janek_Wi%C5%9Bniewski
The protesters in late 1980 might have been larger and more popular, but if the Soviet unreleased it might, it would not have mattered.
Of course, the other motivating factor was that the economy went to shit. People were hungry and tired of waiting in long queues with shelves at the stores almost empty. Nothing to do with "discussions and political institutions the elites were working in" though.
Hope doesn't work if there are tanks who shoot at you. The people in Poland were not braver then those in China or those in Hungary. The difference is that in those cases the political system had the will to oppose them with the force required.
Unarmed protestors simple can not win against an army. Its pure idealism to believe that.
The aftermath of a massacre comes down to the government’s willingness and ability to control the narrative and suppress further dissent. Some governments can be quite successful at this. There’s absolutely no guarantee that a massacre of protestors results in anything beyond dead protestors.
Prague Spring lead to reforms and set the inspiration for the next generation that ended in victory (source https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr...) .
Rabaa, the situation is still ongoing, and unfortunately it's not a completely peaceful movement right now as it escalated to insurgency... (Source https://timep.org/esw/non-state-actors/revolutionary-punishm... )
The Prague Spring’s reforms were quickly reversed and the country was communist business as usual for decades afterwards. Crediting it for the fall of communism in 1989 seems like quite a stretch; for any successful protest, there will be failed ones that came before and provided influence. Does that mean that all protests are successful by definition when you look at a long enough timeline? Seems like a highly pointless metric if so.
CCP is still grappling with it.
Quote "As foundational as the crackdown at Tiananmen may have been to the CCP’s current strength, it remains largely invisible to the people. Despite claiming the moral high ground against what it calls a “counter-revolutionary” rebellion, the Party is still sensitive to the fact that its slaughter of students and laborers put a stain on its legitimacy."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5600363/china-tiananme...
Sorry, but you can't just burry a massacre, especially if it's been well documented.
> Does that mean that all protests are successful by definition when you look at a long enough timeline?
They may also look like separate events on the timeline, but still part of the same overall movement. Change doesn't happen overnight.
No, it's certainly not visible to the people. If you are talking about Chinese people, not HK people.
It began the process of deterioration of relations between the PRC and the Western democracies, a process that has continued to the present day. People began to realize that China may not liberalize on its own the way Taiwan did—that the government of the PRC is often hostile to liberal democracy. One of the consequences of this realization is in fact these Hong Kong protests. There are numerous other consequences of this cooling in relations too—for example, protectionist tariffs against a country seen as hostile to Western values are easier to sell politically in the West. Tariffs obviously impact China.
Tiananmen didn't achieve what the protestors wanted, but it's clearly a significant historical event.
- On June 9th this year, a million people joined a peaceful march fighting this bill. Carrie Lam's response? Go ahead with the Second Reading anyway.[1]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_Movement
[1] https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201906/10/P2019061000710...
So far, it seems like it helped to inspire the current protestors, and they're much better organized this time round.
Revolutions, specially non-violent once succeed if the political establishment does not have the will or tools to resist.
The protestors in Europe and China were probably equally as brave. While in the Soviet system the elites had already divided and paralyzed themselves, that was the fundamental condition that allowed protest to be successful in eastern Europe.
The people in China, were simply shot down and 30 years after the CCP is in control still. The exact same thing could have happened in the Soviet Union, if the elites had not already crippled themselves.
Governments with modern arms don't fall to rebellions unless some significant part of the elite is either at least passive or actively supporting the revolution.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2014/07/24/the-proven...
[2] https://www.fastcompany.com/3040831/peaceful-protest-slow-an...
I think that's the exception rather than the rule. More societies have gained independence through being a perpetual thorn in the side of whoever is subjugating them than any other way. If you make subjugating you an expensive road to nowhere they will eventually screw off. With the unanimity of opposition to mainland rule HK stands a pretty good chance. Imagine the troubles but without local opposition stabbing the IRA in the back at every turn. That's the kind of fight the PRC is in for if the situation spirals into a full blown shooting conflict.
The bill in question is now at the Second Reading stage, specifically at the "[Reading] may be resumed on notice by the Member or public officer in charge of the bill" step. The "House Committee" debate was basically skipped.
[0] https://www.legco.gov.hk/general/english/procedur/content/pa...
China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires, HK will fully accept the China way of life. Lam backing down is an easy way to defuse the situation for now and they can try again later.
I expect to see this cycle of peace, then protest, then peace again continue for years - each time, HK will lose a few more rights they used to have.
Especially after the ‘67 protests, that resulted in 51 deaths.
China is hoping the next generation will be more friendly. Like how the people of Macau are.
Happy people don't protest as frequently. People who feel they have dim future prospects do.
(Simply from a realpolitik perspective)
I wonder what kind of formal logic is this.
Very likely. Sucks for HK people though :(
Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example.
As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game
As for the values of the CCP, consider them like the Constitution in the US or the values of the "founding fathers". People don't get to change those either in any direct democratic way (but through a slow, ideological and legal process).
Besides, 1 party vs 2 parties alternating seems hardly much of a difference...
I’m not talking about changing the constitution or policy in a direct democratic way, changing them in a representative way through Western style democracy would be a vast improvement. Because the constitutions of Western governments still leave a lot of political room to manouver, such as taxation. In the US, stuff like that was left out of the constitution because the founding fathers knew they didn’t have all the answers, no one does. Especially not the CCP. Instead, things like basic human rights such as the right to not get locked up and brainwashed because of your religion is enshrined in the constitutions of Western style democracies because unlike taxation or government ownership of enterprises that is really important to make sure all individuals matter.
And yes, changing the constitution is very slow, but if you have a multitude of differences with the government and the majority population, you can still progress politically and change one thing about the constitution where you do find common ground if you’re a competent politician. That’s far faster, more efficient and meritocratic than having to share the vast majority of policy with just one arbitrary party leadership to even be elligeble to run.
All of these advantages are still present even with a two party system, but I prefer the multiparty, parliamentary system we have here in the Nordic countries.
1) In America, I can just decide to run for office. Especially at the local to state level, independent candidates can be totally viable. Random everyday people cannot run for office in China. The party selects candidates to stand for election, and they generally run unopposed, or opposed by someone who is nearly a perfect mirror on policy.
2) In America, I can run on values that are against the Constitution or the founding fathers. How many people run on platforms of curtailing or amending the second amendment? You see that all the way up to candidates running for the Presidency. You will not see candidates run on policies that are opposite of the CCP in China.
One party that controls which candidates can run means they are effectively just appointing people to positions, while giving the illusion of choice or citizen impact on elections. There's a lot about the US system of representative democracy that could be justly criticized and would be improved by reform, but acting like it is even remotely similar to China is absurd.
so, while indirect, there does seem some nominal way to disagree as you say
While there are local elections, there's usually no right to stand for elections. These so-called elections, generally has only 1 candidate, or a few that are all communist members, with pretty much the same views. "Elections" where people can't stand to be elected freely are not elections, they are just some elaborate ceremony to rubber-stamp government official appointments.
that is unfortunate, it seems anywhere you go people try to subvert democracy (to different degrees of success)... i guess that’s why they call it “eternal vigilance”
> PRC has no legal vehicle for citizens to disagree with the state.
Yes that's true. There should be one. People in Beijing and Shanghai and everywhere else deserve leaders that actually represent them too. Do you think otherwise?
You can run for office. If you find no parties that share any of your values, form one.
You can raise the issue in the media which would pressure the government. You would probably not get kidnapped while on vacation in Thailand, and then get locked up without a trial and a forced confession through torture, just for criticizing the UK government.
If it's something that affects an entire class of people, such as a certain profession, you could organize something like a labor strike or a protest.
And if all else fails, you could actually just break an existing law you think is unfair. You would get an actual trial administered by an independent justice system where you get to defend your actions, you can then argue that the law is unfair and restricted your life in a cruel way. Sadly, it had to come to measures like this for LGBT rights to improve in the UK.
You also mentioned "but the people I live around don't". In China it wouldn't matter if everyone around you care about the issue, something will only happen if the CCP deems it necessary.
Because in the West you can form a party even if you fundamentally disagree with the parties already in power. If you go back a few decades the green parties and the nationalistic parties as we know them today didn't exist in most of Europe and were formed as reactions to feeling of the government not sharing the same fundamental values.
https://safeguarddefenders.com/en/file/472/download?token=Bd...
> Every single day in China, depending on which statistic from the Chinese government is used, an average of 16 to 76 people are placed into the new liuzhi detention system and, by definition, disappeared.
[..]
> For decades, the Chinese Communist Party’s powerful anti-graft watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), used the shuanggui detention system to hold suspects for up to six months without charge. Enforcers were not answerable to any state laws. The use of shuanggui has been a strictly internal affair for the members of the CCP, it is completely separate from the state or judicial system. The meant that the normal protections afforded to those detained within the judicial system and rights, such as access to legal counsel, were not available to shuanggui detainees. Once in these facilities, you have no right to have your family informed of your whereabouts. You simply disappeared.
> At the National People’s Congress in March 2018, China introduced a constitutional amendment to establish the National Supervision Commission (NSC), based on the new National Supervision Law (NSL), effectively replacing shuanggui with liuzhi. In practical terms, the biggest change was the NSC has authority over not just the 90 million or so CCP members but state employees and anyone working for an organization that manages public affairs or is involved in public affairs in any manner, right down to the village level. The style of Investigation and detention, despite the change in name, remain the same.
Except in Tunisia, which is the one success story from that time period. It's now a functioning democracy. Of course the real test is how it does over the long term, but at least so far it's an example of real change in the region.
No, if it was a failure the previous system and people would have remained in power. Though some did, there was an irrefutable change - whatever qualms one might have with the new regime.
> And in any case the reasons behind it had nothing to do with a desire for democracy
Each person has their reasons. The Group of Nine would certainly disagree with your claim.
This is prior to the Article I branch of government, Congress, abdicating much of its power and creating this myth of coequal branches of government, and when House districts were a lot smaller, and you and your neighbors has to decide between yourselves who was in charge of certain functions of keeping society going. You know, who was going to be the local Sheriff, who was going to run the local court, who was going to deliver the mail and so on. Many of these jobs were boring and without glory, but someone had to do them.
Had Madison’s Virginia Plan been implemented in full and the Connecticut Compromise wasn’t implemented, it would likely have been more democratic still.
Structurally, the United States constitution is overwhelmingly democratic, and especially for the time it was written and ratified. If it has grown less democratic at all, it is due to factors the signers and ratifiers of the Constitution could never have predicted that occurred in the 230 years since. No one could have foreseen Congress would abdicate much of it’s power and responsibilities in the 20th Century, or that the Industrial Revolution would lead to the single greatest explosion of the human population in history, or that we would choose to let in so many foreigners. Nobody thought each House member would be representing a district in the hundreds of thousands at a time when they thought one House member per 50K might be too few.
Is it democratic? Oh yes. It is the most democratic document of its time, and few legal documents written since then could plausibly claim to be more so.
My point was it is closer to the ideals.
TIL we coronated King George Washington I and established yet another divine monarchy.
I mean sure, the colonies ended up directly translating to states, and (some of) those colonies happened to have bicameral legislatures with a lower house consisting of elected representatives, but that's about where the similarities between the colonies and resulting states end. Any existing leadership that continued to lead during/after the revolution did so by democratic rather than autocratic means.
> it was a rebellion rather than a revolution.
Those terms are not mutually exclusive. It was a revolution implemented by rebelling against the British Crown.
I mentioned this already in my comment, but to clarify/reiterate:
- Governors (AFAICT) were not democratically elected (they were - if I recall correctly - appointed by the Crown, as was standard for colonial governments)
- The only democratically elected legislators (in the colonies that even had legislatures) were in the Lower House of each colony; the governor typically (if not always) appointed the Upper House's legislators himself (reflecting British Parliament and its House of Commons v. House of Lords, respectively)
Very different from how things operate post-Revolution, what with democratically-elected governors and state senators. If any of the former colonial leadership prevailed as the new state leadership, it was by democratic rather than autocratic means.
Definitely fair to draw comparisons, though; you're right that there are structural similarities on a state and federal level to the old colonial and imperial governments (respectively). My argument is that how the legislators and executives of those governments are appointed (i.e. democratically v. autocratically) is the big change, and one that would make the American Independence movement more of a revolution; the polities themselves were outright replaced, at least nominally, as the existing polities were rooted in the Crown's authority.
Contrast this with Canada or Australia, where (last I checked) the British monarch is still formally the head of state despite them being sovereign nations with independent governments and separate heads of government. I suspect that's closer to what you're envisioning (i.e. colonial governments continuing to exist as-is after gaining political sovereignty).
You're absolutely correct!
In case I was unclear eariler, I was strictly addressing questions of structure. Please accept my sincere apologies for my failure to make my self clear.
In more modern times, revolutions have pretty much resulted in more democracies than at any other time period.
If it's a domestic dictatorship, it will usually evolve into a democracy on its own.
If it's a foreign power oppressing an inherently democratic nation, a revolution might have good results. This is one way to think of the American Revolution, as well as the Eastern European liberation.
You should read up on the French Revolution. It led to phenomenal amounts of tyranny and war. The small flickers of democracy were soon extinguished.
Napoleon was, to put it somewhat mildly, not much of a democrat.
there have been quite a few "successful" revolutions.
When I say that "Revolutions don't produce democracies", I'm talking about violent revolutions. A "non violent revolution" is a contradiction on terms to me.
European history is not a secret. It was mostly gradual reforms over decades, ending in women's vote around 1920.
On another level, you can think of it as a rising middle class demanding and getting political influence proportional to their economical power.
I mean, we still celebrate July 1st as Canada Day. I like to joke that it’s “Dependence Day” since it celebrates the signing of the British North America Act, which, and I’m paraphrasing here, says “this whole Queen thing is working for us let’s keep it going.” As compared to the Declaration of Independence, which, well, you know the rest.
Almost a decade later, possibly the cops on the beat shakedown situation has improved but general man on the street economic conditions are not improved in Tunisia. It is not apparently (yet) a success story.
As long as they have food, water and the will to fight. They can play the long game too if they are so inclined. Eventually the CCP will get tired of the expensive, resource sucking bridge to nowhere. Sure, China could carpet bomb HK but the more you destroy it the less it's worth and the harder it is to justify involvement.
Far better for them to lose HK and be condemned globally than lose the all of China.
The further the CCP goes the more they risk deepening the resolve of your opponent (especially with a highly united population as in the case in HK). So far it appears that all escalations have done just that. The crux of the issue is that the people of HK do not want to be ruled over by the iron fisted CCP that drives tanks on people. Any escalation by the CCP confirms to the people of HK that the CCP is in fact the iron fisted CCP that drives tanks on people, not the new friendly CCP that does not drive tanks on people. So what does the CCP do then? They either back down or try to up the violence hoping it'll be too much for them. By upping the violence the CCP is gambling that they draw throw in the towel before HK does. At some point (only recognizable in hindsight) the line between protests/riot and open revolt will be crossed. Beyond that point it's fundamentally a gamble that a strong majority of people in HK would rather accept subjugation than die. Since this is somewhat an existential issue for them they may very well choose the latter. How does the CCP "win" against that? People who accept that they are probably going to die resisting are un-govern-able. Your soldiers can patrol the streets and they will still take pot-shots at you. Every time you get one another will pop up. There is no way to "win" against that unless your definition of "win" includes complete eradication. The only historical occurrence I can think of where a people who had resigned to death wound up surrendering involved strong central leadership telling them to surrender.
Obviously it's a shit situation no matter how you look at it with outcomes ranging from bad to worse in the short and medium term.
There's no good way out at this point. Somebody is gonna lose.
This cascades into a lot of different things, but ultimately collapses down into trust. Just as the Cold War did.
Counterparties and potential allies are less likely to ally themselves with you, if they see you're intractable even with your own people. What does that say about how you would treat an ally or trading partner?
Furthermore, China is also attempting to integrate itself into the existing multinational trading and governance frameworks. That depends on votes from non-Chinese-controlled sovereign states. Being an international pariah makes that a lot more difficult.
Additionally (although somewhat tangentially), China would really like Taiwan back without having to invade it. It doesn't matter much in the global scheme of things, but it's been a splinter in the CCP's claim to legitimacy and supremacy ever since it was created as an independent government.
Oppressing Hong Kong makes peaceful Taiwanese reunification increasingly unlikely. On a decades / generations time-frame.
That's one hilarious characterization of a government.
As for political trust, difference in values and great power security competition with US means the west is broadly not going to trust China regardless. China's revisionist vision for existing framework is to pivot away from rules and values (that benefit the west) and focus on mutually beneficial development. It's an extension of old ASEAN tributary philosophy, get rich, try not to meddle in other's internal affairs. And I think the lack of response on XinJiang means that pivot is working. Regardless, Chinese trade-GDP is only 18% (~14% accounting foreign value-add), it has not been an export economy since late 2000s, apart from select strategic products like airplane engines and silicon, China can survive without Western trade.
I think the real issue is Taiwan, and on that front the damage has already been done, which is the real loss to CPC. China wants Taiwan by 2050, I think HK removed cultural reunification off the table. There's only economics or war now which is concerning.
I think the intent of SCOTUS was originally to decipher laws into a workable framework - given that some laws could potentially interact weirdly with decade or century old laws... and to help highlight incongruities in laws that law makers may have overlooked during their original writing in an effort to spur congress to correct said law.
This is especially challenging when cleaned-up platforms are immediately seized upon by parasitic short-term political animals to bodge on quick wins that they successfully trumpet as solely due to their leadership, and the claim works on the stakeholders. This is a problem as our civilization grows larger and more complex. Sustaining the ever-increasing complexity requires the biological equivalent of continuously performing the grunt work cleaning up the free radicals that are making the system inefficient, and re-asserting not just repaired core DNA, but an expressed DNA adapted to changed conditions.
For worse.
that said, i'm not optimistic that communist china will reform any time soon.
However, it's not even a real backdown though. She just announce to start a motion to backdown, but it was still the decision of parliament to withdraw the bill, and the parliament was controlled by pro-Beijing parties. Practically even pro-Beijing parties care the voter's view so it may withdraw the bill, but it was uncertain whether there were an order from Beijing to vote down withdrawal after the protest was over, so still many uncertainty right here. Not to mention police brutality was not addressed.
Go look at how Stalin did the Collectivisation in Russia.
There were multiple slowdowns and removal of some of the harshest demands, but after a couple of months or years they came back, sometimes this happened multiple times. The amount of violence was also regulated up and down.
That said, the opposition defiantly helped, and in the End even Stalin did not get close to as far as he had hopped to get.
Edit: Its same user id, probably this user just cross-posted.
Why they would not have endorsed this - for the CCP maintaining authority is the paramount objective. At no point can the Party "lose face" by giving in to external demands because that would erode the Party's authority. Any erosion of authority (the thinking goes) could eventually lead to a catastrophic collapse of power leading to civil war like in 1911-1949. This was Deng Xiaoping's overriding concern during his time as paramount leader and he made sure his successors learned it as well. For example, even when the students in Tiananmen Square offered to leave in exchange for some paltry concessions he denied it and cleared the Square with the military. In his opinion and the Party's opinion, negotiating with students would have eroded Party authority irreparably, even if no actual concessions were made. For similar reasons, Lam's request to withdraw this bill earlier this summer was denied by the Party.
If Beijing endorsed this, then it could mean the Party playbook on unrest is being modified as we speak.
If Beijing didn't endorse this, then Lam will now suffer a fate similar to Zhao Ziyang, the Premier during the Tiananmen Square incident. He broke with the other Party leaders and supported the students, leading to his house arrest till his death in 2005.
Formal withdrawal of this bill will at least meet a huge demand of the general public. As to other demands, the support will be waning. That would be what the central government wants.
Hopefully it will lead to a real election to elect a leader that truly represents the citizens rather than special interests.
It's possible Lam going rouge would allow Xi and Co to possibly save some face ... while giving them time to subvert the protester's cause in less obvious ways.
It is possible they simply want to back away for a bit, and deal with things more quietly.
This news has been censored in the mainland press, so no one there is reacting to it either way.
Xi used the word "struggle (斗争)" 58 times in his speech yesterday at the Central Party School.
http://xinhuanet.com/politics/2019-09/03/c_1124956081.htm
-
Another important thing is the collapse of Chinese pork industry due to African swine fever, unlike other monoculture diseases such as mad cow and banana Panama disease, it has no cure and prevention, it's doomed in the foreseeable future.
It hit China particularly hard because pork is their cheapest(by a large margin) and main red meat, compounding it is that China can't deign to import cheap NA feed crops and pork coz America is the enemy now, price is now around 3 dollars per 500g, pricier than imported Australian beef (Chinese beef is usually twice the price of pork), and is expected to hike even more during holiday season and Chinese new year, maintain a high level after that.
Chinese people don't care about politics, but pork prices will push basically everything more expensive and force them to care, and that's dangerous for the party.
China 54,070,000 America 9,452,000 Brazil 2,811,000
It's estimated that the supply gap will be 20,000,000 tons in 2020, I don't think Brazil can supply that even if they ditch pork.
The whole planet can't supply it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/237619/export-of-pork-in...
Now they are looking pretty silly with vastly less pork being produced domestically.
There's a great Freakonomics about the history of supermarkets which turns out to have been a major force in the cold war. USDA pushed and supported cheap mass production and even transportation, making what we now expect in a big, well stocked market with low prices and wide selection. We set up modern demo markets in the Ukraine which probably hit home, literally, because the Soviet markets were bare and droll. This tech was even studied by the Soviets but they couldn't reproduce it.
It seems hitting the stomachs was just as important as hitting the minds and the missiles.
Internal edicts of the government leak all the time, but they also not far from official PR. Officials themselves have to decipher party's esoteric slang.
At that point, the pro-Beijing LegCo member can reject such motion and continue the third reading of the bill and Beijing win.
The other possibility is where we, the Hongkonger, continue demanding the rest of the four major demands, and CCP and Lam got so annoyed and trying to order a curfew. Again, this is not something any of us want.
What are the LegCo rules of procedure around this? Is there something we can read in English translation?
Whether or not a motion is required seems a major point.
Before update:
Today's press release [1]: "The Secretary for Security will move a motion according to the Rules of Procedure when the Legislative Council resumes."
The relevant official text of the above chinese link: Rule of Procedure of the Legislative Council (LegCo) 64(2) and (3)[2]: "(2) The Member or public officer in charge of a bill may, by an announcement made in Council at the beginning of proceedings for the resumption of the second reading debate on the bill, withdraw the bill if -
(a) the purpose of the resumption is for making such an announcement; and
(b) such purpose has been so stated in the notice of the resumption of debate given under Rule 54(5) (Second Reading). (L.N. 74 of 2005)
(3) The Member or public officer in charge of a bill may, in making an announcement for the withdrawal of the bill under subrule (2), address the Council on matters relevant to the withdrawal but no debate may arise on such an address. (L.N. 74 of 2005)"
So no motion/debate/vote is needed. People are saying the Article 23/national security bill in 2003 was withdrawn by simple gazetting, without any motion or debate. This is the equivalent press back then [3].
[1] https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201909/04/P2019090400666...
[2] https://www.legco.gov.hk/general/english/procedur/content/pa...
[3] https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200309/05/0905155.htm
[4] https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1478843-20190905.h...
五大訴求，缺一不可。
No seriously, these demands are a joke and not constructive. If anything it's just being used as an excuse to cause more chaos.
I'm trying to keep this comment as a logical opinion since I know hn isn't a place for flamed political views
From the article:
“Apart from the formal withdrawal of the legislation, the protesters have asked for the government to set up a commission of inquiry to investigate police conduct in tackling the protests, grant amnesty to those who have been arrested, stop characterising the protests as riots, and restart the city’s stalled political reform process.”
All that said, this is just a slogan. Different protesters put weight on different elements of this menu. Each concession takes people off the street. Given how reasonable many of the demands are, it makes sense for someone to be an adult in the room to Xi’s pettiness.
Fifth, I can understand and dialogue can start and bickering in legislation, whatever, depending on definition this is achievable, but if you expect a democracy overnight then I have a strong urge to post a link to a music video.
Hense, as per my comments below, demanding all five demands to be satisfied is not constructive and to some degree immature.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz2dba/hong_kong_...
- https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/czgvb7/emily_lau_...
- https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz93rd/suspected_...
- https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz797d/man_punche...
- https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz4fjm/why_contin...
But categorizing 2 million people who participated in the protests (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48656471) as rioters is ridiculous.
- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-back...
- https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/19/asia/viral-photo-hong-kong-pr...
> The alternative is an ever escalating oppression-protest cycle.
Anyway, I don't believe recreating June 4 is a wise move for PRC at this time. The whole world is watching.
If the protestors are prosecuted for what they did, but the police get to walk away, it's unacceptable to them. They won't accept it.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_Hong_Kong_Polic...
Full democracy is a legitimate demand but one that you need to be extremely optimistic, to say the least, to believe that the central government will agree to budge on.
On the other hand, demands regarding rioting are unreasonable. There objectively has been rioting going on and no government will accept to send the message that it is acceptable to throw petrol bombs or to ransack government buildings, or to use violence in general. The only leeway in these cases is usually the penalty courts hand: Very heavy to send a message or relatively light to appease.
If the economy suffers too much, there will be real internal pressure against protesters, especially against any violence.
If the bill is indeed withdrawn it allows protesters to stop while claiming a victory. This does not mean giving up on broader democratic demands but allows them to catch their breath and ponder a long term strategy.
I believe most protesters would agree with that. The fear is authorities using riot laws against peaceful protesters.
In this, again, there is reasonable compromise.
Rioting involves violence and I don't see the government budge on that. The fact that the protesters' demands mention a blanket amnesty and use the term 'riot' makes the demand unpalatable.
Regarding illegal assemblies there might be leeway in how strictly people are charged, or whether charges are dropped in many cases.
Beyond the obvious lack of trust the issue with such treaty is the procedure. Indeed it could give a say to HK courts or it could simply create a simple procedure where HK courts have no say beyond checking that the right forms were filled. I don't know how the bill was drafted.
In general, it is not unreasonable for HK to have extradition procedures with the rest of China at large (mainland, Taiwan, Macau) but again, the devil is in the details.
(Note that HK is formally part of the PRC, so saying "HK extradition to China" may ruffle some feathers).
Few, and with strict legal and political supervision [1]. The proposed law would have single-handedly smothered Hong Kong’s rule of law and stability. It was a stupid, unnecessary move pursued solely for Xi’s political concerns.
> HK is formally part of the PRC
Hong Kong is Chinese territory from a military perspective. Civically, legally and administratively, it is separate.
Hong Kongers used to identify as Chinese. But due to Xi’s hamfistedness over the past few months, that is no longer the case.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_law_in_China
HK is part of the PRC, that's what many people miss. It is granted special status within the PRC by a national law. Hence the official name "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China".
This is quite different from what, e.g. British people might expect. For example HK was never part of the UK and Gibraltar today is not part of the UK.
The point being that opposing "HK" and "China" as is often the case in western media is inaccurate and perhaps not productive as it sometimes seems intended solely at annoying the Chinese government.
This seems enough reason to me. Did you ever read about their antics in regards to Taiwan? They deserve everything that’s coming to them.
The strict supervision is the key here - there could not be true supervision of an extradition treaty with China when the executive is appointed BY mainland China.
No it doesn't. It's ridiculously easy to be charged for rioting. Here's the legal definition: http://www.hklii.hk/eng/hk/legis/ord/245/s19.html
"when a person reasonably believes harm will be caused, or is likely to be caused, to a person or in his presence to his property, or a person is in fear of being harmed through an assault, affray, riot, unlawful assembly, or some other form of disturbance" [1]
This is legal speak to mean violence against people or property.
- Violence doesn't have to be actually carried out.
- Once a "breach of peace" is declared, everyone in the general vicinty can be charged with rioting.
If you take part in a riot/violent protest you may be charged with a criminal offence.
This is the way it works in most countries, including the UK. There is nothing extraordinary there.
Being arrested or even charged is also not the same as being convicted.
Note that the definition also includes unlawful assembly, so the people involved would already be in the wrong.
I think some people are trying a bit too hard to excuse violent protests as if HK was somehow a special case.
That being said, again let's also see who ends being convicted.
With prior cases as precedent, and with how loosely the law is written, the chances of them not being convicted after being charged is slim.
Without details your claims do not make much sense, including your claims about precedents and likelihood of conviction.
Arrest of social worker:
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news.php?id=134091&si...
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/09/02/catastrophe-hong-kong-...
I might be misremembering the likelihood of being convicted with "riot", but from what I can remember, several people were convicted with riot in the 2016 unrest; they were later acquitted several years later through costly appeals.
Let's see how many gets convicted this time.
How else are you supposed to fight against a dictator for life in a system that's not a democracy?
Part of Hong Kong Basic Law (their Constitution, which was adopted during the handover process) stipulates that "the ultimate aim" is elections by universal suffrage for both the Chief Executive as well as the Legislative Council. So the demand for universal suffrage is simply asking the government to make good on their promises from 1990/1997.
One of the reasons that the extradition bill caused such an uproar in the city is that Hong Kong citizens are protected by rule of law in a way that doesn't exist in China. The law has clear definitions and punishment for rioting, and the actions of some protesters could very well fall into that category. So to ask for all rioting charges to be dropped is asking for the government to give in to mob rule. (Caveat—I don't think the rioting charge would be as big of a deal as it is if it didn't carry a 10 year prison sentence. But it's hard for the protesters to ask for anything less than blanket amnesty... Without looking at a specific case, where do you draw the line? What sort of punishment is reasonable?)
2. A commission of inquiry into alleged police brutality
3. Retracting the classification of protesters as “rioters”
4. Amnesty for arrested protesters
5. Dual universal suffrage, meaning for both the Legislative Council and the Chief Executive
from https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/czhs4q/the_five_d...
Another thread discussing the demands, though I'm sure there's more on that sub: https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cqnxh9/the_5_dema...
五 5 大 big 訴求 demands 缺一不可 fixed expression “none is dispensable” (缺 lack 一 one 不 no 可 can/possible)
The five demand in question are the ones there is broad consensus on, see other threads.
The Hong Kong protestors have five demands.
According to this subreddit post (https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/czhs4q/the_five_d...) the five demands are:
1. Full withdrawal of the extradition bill 徹底撤回送中修例
2. A commission of inquiry into alleged police brutality 成立獨立調查委員會 追究警隊濫暴
3. Retracting the classification of protesters as “rioters” 取消暴動定性
4. Amnesty for arrested protesters 撤銷對今為所有反送中抗爭者控罪
5. Dual universal suffrage, meaning for both the Legislative Council and the Chief Executive 以行政命令解散立法會 立即實行雙真普選
There's the usual boilerplate about releasing arrested demonstrators, arresting the cops who bashed them up, and sacking the government.
There are two big demands. The first is withdrawing this bill, which has reportedly been granted. That's a big deal. The communists have let the "terrorists" win.
The second demand is Australian quality democracy in Hong Kong. If they get that, it will be a massive, world historical deal.
At least everyone now has an excuse to stop throwing Molotov cocktails.
With how the English language media is reporting, I would have thought the Yellow Vest protests are over.
At their highest the HK protest had like half the population in the street.
I've always wondered about public support, is this 1% based on substantial polling?
Additionally, from what can be read in various updates from the protesters, the person who will be tasked with the "looking-into" will be a Hong Kong government official, and the public will not be invited for enquiry.
Fellow citizens,
For more than two months, protests arising from the Fugitive Offenders Bill have continued. Our citizens, police and reporters have been injured during violent incidents. There have been chaotic scenes at the airport and MTR stations; roads and tunnels have been suddenly blocked, causing delay and inconvenience to daily life. Visitors wonder whether our city is still a safe place for travel or business. Families and friends have been under stress, and arguments have flared. We have also seen abuse and bullying in some schools and on the Internet. For many people, Hong Kong has become an unfamiliar place.
Incidents over these past two months have shocked and saddened Hong Kong people. We are all very anxious about Hong Kong, our home. We all hope to find a way out of the current impasse and unsettling times.
Of the "five demands" raised by the public, we have in fact responded on various occasions:
(i) First, on withdrawing the Bill. On June 15 I announced that the Bill was suspended and later reiterated that "the Bill is dead" and that all the legislative work had come to a complete halt;
(ii) Second, on setting up a Commission of Inquiry. The Government believes that matters relating to police enforcement actions are best handled by the existing and well-established Independent Police Complaints Council (IPCC), which was set up for exactly this purpose. In addition to handling complaints against individual police officers, the IPCC has undertaken a fact-finding study, under its powers, on the handling of large-scale public order events that took place after June 9. One focus will be the Yuen Long incident on July 21 which attracted serious public concern. The study aims to ascertain the facts, to assess the police handling of protests, and to make recommendations to the Government. The IPCC has established a panel of international experts to assist in its work and will make its findings and recommendations public;
(iii) Third, on the matter of the protest being a riot. We have explained that in fact there is no legal effect on how such incidents are described or categorised. The Department of Justice has assured the public that each and every prosecution decision is based on the evidence collected, and is in strict accordance with the relevant law and the Prosecution Code;
(iv) Fourth, on dropping charges against protesters and rioters and shelving prosecutions. I have explained that this is contrary to the rule of law, and is not acceptable. It also goes against the Basic Law, which states that criminal prosecutions must be handled by the Department of Justice, free from any interference;
(v) Fifth, on implementing universal suffrage. Indeed, this is the ultimate aim laid down in the Basic Law. As we said before, if we are to achieve this, discussions must be undertaken within the legal framework, and in an atmosphere that is conducive to mutual trust and understanding, and without further polarising society.
Our responses to the five demands have been made with full consideration of different constraints and circumstances. I recognise that these may not be able to address all the grievances of people in society. However, should we all think deeply whether escalating violence and disturbances is the answer? Or whether it is better to sit down to find a way out through dialogue.
Many would say that we need a common basis to start such a dialogue, and that this has to start with the Chief Executive. I now present four actions to initiate this dialogue. First, the Government will formally withdraw the Bill in order to fully allay public concerns. The Secretary for Security will move a motion according to the Rules of Procedure when the Legislative Council resumes.
Second, we will fully support the work of the IPCC. In addition to the overseas experts, I have appointed two new members to the IPCC, namely Mrs Helen Yu Lai Ching-ping and Mr Paul Lam Ting-kwok, SC. I pledge that the Government will seriously follow up the recommendations made in the IPCC's report.
Third, from this month, I and my Principal Officials will reach out to the community to start a direct dialogue. People from all walks of life, with different stances and backgrounds are invited to share their views and air their grievances. We must find ways to address the discontent in society and to look for solutions.
Fourth, I will invite community leaders, professionals and academics to independently examine and review society's deep-seated problems and to advise the Government on finding solutions. After more than two months of social unrest, it is obvious to many that discontentment extends far beyond the Bill. It covers political, economic and social issues, including the oft-mentioned problems relating to housing and land supply, income distribution, social justice and mobility, and opportunities for our young people, as well as how the public could be fully engaged in the Government's decision-making. We can discuss all these issues in our new dialogue platform.
Fellow citizens, lingering violence is damaging the very foundations of our society, especially the rule of law. Some people, though not many, attacked the Central Government's office in Hong Kong and vandalised the national flag and national emblem. This is a direct challenge to "One Country, Two Systems". Both have put Hong Kong in a highly vulnerable and dangerous situation. Irrespective of our grievances, or the depth of discontentment towards the Government, we cannot agree or accept that violence is a solution to our problems. Our foremost priority now is to end violence, to safeguard the rule of law and to restore order and safety in society. As such, the Government has to strictly enforce the law against all violent and illegal acts.
My team and I hope that the four actions just announced can help our society to move forward. Let's replace conflicts with conversations, and let's look for solutions.
There's an important political figure in the history of modern China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yat-sen
He studied medicine in HK. He lived in Hawaii for a time [1]. He had a political philosophy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Principles_of_the_People
To my surprise I found Sun Yat-sen is still revered in China. He was Cantonese, like many of HK people. He has a University in GZ named after him!
If you would like to learn more about history of China this professor is fantastic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Baum, in particular, The Fall and Rise of China The Teaching Company, 2010 is really good. It's on audible.
[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20131016060255/http://media.nara...
He has a huge mausoleum in Nanjing.
His portrait used to be where Mao's is now on Tiananmen. And his portrait is still displayed in Taiwan's parliament (the Republic of China's parliament).
It certainly helped his official standing in mainland China that he died in 1925, i.e. only soon after the Communist Party was founded and before the bulk of the civil war.
He was one of the most important figures that helped to end the Qing Dynasty. Of course he's revered by communists.
Doesn't that imply legitimacy to the three principles?
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLhyKYa0YJ_5AsEQ8iuHDn...
What does that even mean? He's a dialect? Sun Yat-sen is widely regarded as the founding father of modern China(as apposed to Qing dynasty). This is beyond political differences. That's why he's highly regarded on both sides. And believe or not, Kuomintang started out as a left wing party as well. They received tons of aids from Soviet Union when they were initially founded.
I can see where the protestors are coming from, for them, its like living in a world you increasingly don't understand and is alien. But at the same time, I think internally they have to know this protest is just an outward manifestation of fatalism, "shattering like a jewel". If I were a youth in Hong Kong, I either find a way to immigrate or find a way to integrate.
Nah, the worst case is that some of the protesters acquire nuclear weapons, threaten mainland China with them, Xi calls their bluff and moves in, it wasn't a bluff, Xi blames America, nuclear World War 3 starts.
Or perhaps this peaceful protest gets quashed, and a violent insurrection that lasts decades begins. Beijing has a lot of places to hide IEDs.
But it is possible that this dies down and Hong Kong peacefully submits to communism.
People have the power to make a change no matter how impossible the situation seems to be.
Dunno, but graffiti is a pain to wash off the walls.
The "five demands, no less" itself is impossible for HKG. EB itself is already dead months ago. This will only embolden they rioters.
10 dollars on 0907 will be even worse.