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Comment by woutr_be | Hacker News Reader

> With some guns, some tanks, some international support, and the right leader, Hong Kong could win their independence from the monsters who run China.

First of all, that's not what they're protesting for at the moment. All they want is to maintain their autonomy without interference from China, which was promised for 50 years. Most people know that Independence isn't feasible. (Both politically and geographically)

The moment people start using guns, will also be the moment when HK is completely over. China knows how important their international image is, which is why they won't send in the army any time soon. But the moment things get seriously out of hand, I'm fairly certain they'll send in everything they got, and end HK as we know it once and for all.

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>None of them compared to the freedom fighters in Hong Kong. They do the things that Americans are too cowardly to imagine, like shutting down airports and transit.

Because the Hong Kong protests represent the entire cross section of society. It has been a very, very long time since there was a protest inducing issue in the US that came close to that.

>The moment people start using guns, will also be the moment when HK is completely over.

It took the Brits a long time to get the IRA off their back and that was with little international support for the IRA and patchy local support for the IRA. If this spirals into a shooting war the unanimity with which HK opposes being subjugated by China will make this a very tough occupation for China.

The UK is not a police state China is.

> the moment things get seriously out of hand, I'm fairly certain they'll send in everything they got

I'm not so sure: they wouldn't want to be seen internationally as the 800-Lb gorilla. I suspect they'll impose sanctions and start making food and other essentials hard to obtain.

> I'm not so sure: they wouldn't want to be seen internationally as the 800-Lb gorilla.

China didn't have any issue with being the gorilla in cases like Tibet. So, no real reason why HK would be any different.

Sure there are. Tibet isn’t a global financial and commercial hub with a history deeply rooted in the west.

China hasn’t forgotten the brutal economic sanctions and political isolation it faced in the wake of Tiananmen Square back in ‘89. A similar event in HK would certainly result in sanctions, which a struggling Chinese economy can’t handle.

The contrast between political fallout from an HK crackdown vs Tibet is vast, they aren’t very comparable situations.

> I'm not so sure: they wouldn't want to be seen internationally as the 800-Lb gorilla.

Of course not, which is why they still haven't done anything drastic, even though online commenters constantly keep saying this will be Tiananmen 2.0 or that tanks will roll in soon. China has been building it's international profile, and one wrong move with HK will destroy everything.

But I do suspect that they'll be willing to sacrifice a bit of their reputation, if things seriously get out of hand, I do think they'll eventually send in the PLA, on request of the HK government. While that will quell the unrest, it will seriously damage HK's reputation as a safe financial city. Even the recent protests has caused companies to start looking at other nearby cities, Singapore probably being the nearest one.

Tourism and property sales has already taken a massive hit, and will likely put a lot of people out of business by the end of the year.

But with that said, the only thing that can resolve this is for the government to do whatever it takes to stop the protests. Like it or not, HK is quickly losing its appeal to international businesses and travelers.

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