Most Canadians Are Now Better Off Than Most Americans
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
[1]https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/24/canadas-household-debt-level...
https://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-GDP-canadian-import...
If you don't work and spend 30k on rent, food, utilities, etc., then you get 30k deeper into debt every year. Even if there's no tuition.
Why not compare public to public?
https://www.insider.com/college-canada-us-differences-2018-1...
Who sells them housing? Other Canadians.
Why do they go into so much debt? Because the nature of housing is that rising prices will squeeze out every last cent of saved money from the pockets of people trying to buy their first house.
It boggles my mind that the average house in Vancouver or Toronto costs ~20 years of average wages (Assuming you don't eat, sleep under a bridge, and don't pay any taxes.)
20 years worth of labour sure as hell did not go into building it. It's all land speculation.
In the meantime, inflation-adjusted housing prices more than doubled. Pretty much everyone and everyone would have been better off not following your advice.
And today, in 2019 there is still no clear transition path out of the current horrorshow that is the property market. Prices are not coming down, nobody sees any mechanism by which they might come down, and too many people have too much invested in land for the government to ever encourage prices to come down.
When you rent, you are seriously gambling that property prices will not keep rising. When you own, you are seriously gambling that property prices will not fall.
The thing is, there are enormous political and economic pressures to create policies that prevent property prices from falling. As a renter, you are placing a bet against these incredibly powerful forces. It doesn't even matter if you're right - the markets may remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Edit: Obviously there are complications to this. Buying and selling a house is stressful, time-intensive, and expensive. If you're only going to be in an area for 5 years, it's not as smart an idea as buying one with the intent to stay for 45 years. Obviously, it's possible that a generational shift in demographics will result in a property crash... But it's just as likely that increased immigration will offset that shift. Obviously, your city's financial situation, and likely future changes to property taxes will have an effect... The list goes on.
Housing, on average, rises at the rate of inflation (it's closely linked to the cost of new construction), per Robert Shiller's research. Even if the housing market explodes in one area, there's almost certainly another area where it hasn't (normally one without restrictions on new construction-San Fransisco being a prime example of a place where housing prices have skyrocketed due to such restrictions).
> Housing, on average, rises at the rate of inflation
I don't care about the price of the average house in the country. I care about the price of a house within a commuting distance of where I can find gainful employment.
Right now, the prices of homes in those areas are skyrocketing, while the prices of homes in areas that don't have gainful employment are nosediving. Take the average, and you'll find that it tracks inflation... And is a worthless metric.
> Even if the housing market explodes in one area, there's almost certainly another area where it hasn't
Yes, and none of those areas are ones where young people can make a living.
The socially optimal thing would of course be for retirees to consider selling their million-dollar coastal metro homes and move to cheaper areas, like the interior. But as long as they have access to HELOCs, they don't feel any pressure to do them. They can just borrow money against their million-dollar home, instead of downsizing. This is also not going anywhere. It would be political suicide to force grandma and grandpa to move to the boonies, just so that their grandkids, who need to work in the city could afford to live in it.
I really didn't like it for several reasons, but not too long ago I briefly lived inside the DC beltway and had a 10 minute commute to work, and paid $1000/month for half a 2 bedroom apartment in a mid-rise that was pretty decent.
In seriousness, not all metro areas have seen the same huge rise in rents and property values. I can personally vouch that the Baltimore-DC region offers relatively high paying jobs and housing that is adorable given those incomes. I've heard San Antonio, TX is also good on the jobs to housing costs front.
I hope you end up in a place where you can start building some financial security.
Also, run the numbers on long term renting in areas where housing prices are high. There's sometimes a high opportunity cost to having a ton of your savings stuck in the down payment for a house when you could otherwise have it invested in low cost index funds or something similar.
Where I live, my rent was essentially 2/3rds of my gross income, but I found a place to buy for about 5 times my yearly wages and either way, I'm under 10 minutes from work.
BoC staff add that, “Home equity extraction may also be concealing emerging financial distress if borrowers are taking equity out of their homes to manage other debt obligations or to finance their daily expenses because they lack other sources of funds.”
[1]https://www.ratespy.com/heloc-growth-isnt-what-everyone-thou...
Young people are screwed by having to go into debt to buy overpriced homes from retirees who are selling (or people selling their starter home, to trade up.)
Retirees who aren't selling are using the equity in their overpriced homes to live lavishly. Their debt isn't a social problem, because they never intend to pay it down while they remain in their home. Instead, they will die or downsize, their home will be sold, and the HELOC will be paid off.
The former group is getting screwed, and is going heavily into debt because of land speculation. The latter group is living it up, and reaping the windfall. Unlike young people, they always have the option to sell, and move to a low-cost of living area that has no jobs.
It's the bank's problem, then, isn't it? They're predictably going to default. Why is their bank willing to buy equity in their home? It'd be like buying equity in a company that has declared its intent to shut down.
If you're sleeping under a bridge, are you renting out the home you've bought? If so, won't that recoup your costs sooner?
Edit - also secured loans are less risky than unsecured loans. Your article includes housing in 'debt'.
But a huge number of Canadians being underwater on their mortgage will make for a drastic decrease in consumer spending, which may trigger a recession...
Yes - if a billionaire borrower buys a $200,000 house with a mortgage, there is little repayment risk for both borrower and banks. The mortgage payments are unlikely to stress the borrower.
No - that risk can be distributed between bank and borrower. Bank provides 75% of the value of the house, so it takes more risk. However, it can reduce risk in variety of ways, including: 1) taking collateral, 2) taking a guarantee from borrower, 3) diversification, 4) off loading risk to 3rd parties.
Neutral side is generally considered "best effort" in the axis.
And if there's a crisis large enough that solvency of CMHC might be questionable, they don't have to worry either because the bank of Canada will gladly buy their mortgages, passing the risk onto taxpayers.
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/the-real-canadian-b...
Public policy and investment in housing for ordinary people while allowing the mega elite to extract as much wealth for themselves. The non-elite then use debt to maintain their standards of living.
It seems to me that this difference favors landlords over owner-occupants when it comes to buying property [which does not seem to be beneficial public policy]. With interest rates as low as they are, this is maybe only a medium-sized problem, but when interest rates rise again, this is likely going to exacerbate the difficulty of people beginning their home ownership "ladder" because landlords can literally outbid them by the difference in tax policy.
I would describe Canada as generally being tightly range bound. One of the most striking things about coming to the U.S. is the large class of what I would consider to be the working poor. People who are truly just doing enough to get by and are one mishap away from financial ruin. Of course, having lived in SF and NYC this is constantly juxtaposed with extreme, incomprehensible wealth that is equally striking.
In Canada, in my experience, the vast majority are still in the middle with few outliers in either direction. Earning potentials are significantly capped - even in areas like banking and tech - and social programs make it quite difficult for there to be the kind of working poor I observe daily here.
I've often thought to myself that I couldn't imagine what it would be like to make $50k in the United States (even living in a low CoL area). From health insurance, to private school costs (given the quality of many public schools), to college costs. It would seem an intense burden. Certainly if I had offers that paid between $50-100k in both the U.S. and Canada I would move back to Canada. I would feel I have no other choice.
With all that said, I make many multiples - especially after tax - of what I could ever have hoped to make in Canada. I have been inside institutions with the kind of institutional framework with no comparable in Canada (from a human capital and technological perspective). Opportunities have been afforded to me here that either do not exist or are analogous, but significantly inferior in Canada. The United States has given me a wonderful life and I'll always be grateful for the opportunity to be here.
I make no claim as to which economic system is better. I would just observe that Canada is a much easier place to live, but in my experience lacking in the kind of dynamism you see in the United States (that translates into personal opportunities, income, and fulfilment).
[1] Top is obviously somewhat subjective. McGill, U of T, UBC, and U of Waterloo would be the "top" schools. The "top" jobs are FANG or FANG-adjacent, investment banks or hedge funds (GS, JPM, Citadel, etc.), and consulting firms (McKinsey, BCG, Bain).
I wonder how much of this perception comes from the fact that people who have lived in both Canada and the U.S. probably lived in places like SF and NYC, and those American cities are particularly dysfunctional. And that dysfunctionality is particularly visible because of differences in housing patterns. (Toronto versus Chicago is a good example. The two cities are the same size, but Toronto's metro area has 6.5 million people, while Chicago's has almost 10 million. If housing patterns were similar, Chicago would have another 1.5-2 million middle class people living in the city, lessening the impression of gaping wealth inequality between the city's various neighborhoods.)
The fact is that Canada spends almost exactly the same percentage of GDP on social welfare as the U.S., and slightly less per student on K-12 education. It's hard to imagine that Canada really manages to get a dramatically different safety net for the same money. More likely to me is that U.S. urbanites have little experience with American families in suburban Georgia or Kansas--places where making $50,000 and getting employer-paid health insurance (like most middle class families get), and sending your kids to the perfectly good neighborhood school makes for a quite comfortable life.
Hard for you to imagine maybe, yet the numbers speak for themselves.
If by spending social welfare you mean transfering taxpayer dollars to big health corporation dividends, then yes, the US and Canada spend about the same amount of GDP on "social welfare".
Parent described how grateful they are to have the opportunities they do. They are obviously very privileged, they should be very grateful.
I entirely agree with your point that American families in Kansas, et al. seem reasonably content and the kind of fears that would lead me to look to Canada over the U.S. if I made $50-100k are perhaps entirely irrational.
My response though - again personal in nature, not objective in any sense - would be:
Canadians grew up in Canada with an imperfect healthcare system. Nevertheless, it's there and assessable whenever it is needed. There's no fear of random bills or imperfect coverage (there is a fear of waiting weeks or months, however, which is perhaps more important).
Canadian immigrants only understand the U.S. healthcare system in the abstract -- so losing your health insurance or having it and getting dinged with a large bill is a bit of a boogeyman (scary, but perhaps only because we don't fully understand how it all works in practice).
Likewise K-12 and college in Canada is a much simpler affair. I grew up in a city of 100,000. We had no private schools so everyone went to K-12 together. When it came time to go to university, my top-ranked school (in Canada) cost $7,000 a year and was quite easy to get into.
So for a middle-class Canadian family the notion of setting up your child to have the very best Canadian education available isn't an overly stressful affair. K-12 is public and college is reasonably affordable with reasonably high acceptance rates. Importantly: even if private K-12 is available, it's not overly difficult to get into McGill, et al. so why bother?
For a middle-class American family - because private K-12 is available and likely helps with getting into the best colleges - you feel somewhat compelled to send your child there (lest you do them a disservice). Then - again because elite colleges are available and better than privates - you feel compelled to help your child get into and pay for an elite, private education (even the top public options are quite pricey).
In reality what America provides is better alternatives. An issue I see with many colleagues with children is spending $10k a year on private K-12, but feeling like a bad parent because they can't afford the $30k option that has superior outcomes (a classic urban insecurity that is likely not entirely rational). In Canada there are few choices (or in health care only one choice) and while they are inferior to American comparables, they are much more widely assessable. You send your child to the public K-12, because that's just what's available. Your child has just one healthcare option. Your child can only pick from four "elite" universities and if she or he applies to them all, will likely get into one (at a reasonable cost).
It's all the paradox of choice, I suppose.
Whereas in Canada, like you said, "if she or he applies to them all, will likely get into one". And in 10 years nobody cares where you went school. Oddly more of a meritocracy than in the US, which you wouldn't expect in a more socialist Canadian system.
My wife went to high school in rural Iowa. Everyone went to the local high school, and then the smart kids went to U of Iowa, the next tranche went to Iowa State, etc. Her parents were "rich" (her step-dad is a surgeon) but there wasn't much in the way to distinguish them from everyone else. Other “rich” families owned farms, a couple of stores in town, etc. She did FFA (Future Farmers of America) and worked her way through college babysitting. (Tuition at U of I is $8,500 today, about the same as University of Toronto or McGill.)
I should add, in Iowa under 10% of people are below the poverty line, about the same as Canada, infant mortality rate is about the same as Canada, the homelessness rate is 1/10 what it is in Canada, 94% of the population is covered by health insurance, etc. I just got back from Des Moines. Talk about a prosperous, broadly middle class society. The child poverty rate in Des Moines is 14% versus 25% for Toronto. There are no FANG jobs, but millennials with completely normal colleges-graduate jobs own houses. If you want to know why many Americans don’t view their country as a loaf-apocalyptic wasteland, it’s because they don’t live in New York or San Francisco.
However, the point was that in Canada, because the peaks are lower, getting "the very best" education is much more readily achievable by those in the middle than in the United States.
> If you want to know why many Americans don’t view their country as a loaf-apocalyptic wasteland, it’s because they don’t live in New York or San Francisco.
I certainly hope my post hasn't given this impression. I have a green card and am proudly in the pipeline to become an American citizen.
This is a wonderful, special country which has provided me immense opportunity that does not exist within Canada (the primary thrust of my original post).
For many, living in Iowa isn't really a choice. Same for many places that are not major cities.
Not that there isn't gay-bashing, like so many places. But I'd guess there's 'safety in numbers' going on?
Anyway even back in the day, I had several gay classmates (but back then they weren't outspoken about it). These days, my son's classes had coming-out parties etc for classmates.
My daughter-in-law's parents are gay and outspoken about it. My cousin's daughter is married to a wonderful lady, and they've adopted 4 kids who are amazing additions to the clan. We have lunch once a month and catch up.
So some parts of Iowa, at any rate, are not wastelands of backwardness.
> Using the PPPs from the OECD instead, between 25 and 32 per cent of Canadian households would be better off than their American counterparts. The Appendix provides the full estimates using PPPs from the OECD.
Leaving that aside, Canada is broadly comparable to the US in terms of policy so we would expect it to have similar outcomes. Over the past few decades, Canada has been pushing a massive policy of economic liberalization: https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/great-right-nor.... Their government spending as a percentage of GDP dropped from almost 50% in 1990 to under 40% (comparable to the US) in 2008. They've done a better job controlling the deficit than we have, so they have lower debt as a percentage of GDP. They've cut individual taxes to around U.S. levels, and have cut corporate taxes to below U.S. levels. Canada's social spending as a percentage of GDP is slightly less than the US's as of 2014: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/11/27/2053392/welfare-spend.... Canada has also aggressively deregulated: Canada ranks #8 in the Heritage Foundation's economic freedom index, versus #12 for the US.
Canada, Australia, and the United States are more similar than they are different, both culturally and economically. Unsurprisingly, outcomes in those countries are also very similar.
I had the shittiest life in the USA, was born in Canada but parents moved to USA and when I was seven years old; parents were lower-middle class for context.
I've only managed to move back to Canada a few years ago and I wish I never would go to the USA ever again if I could live life over. Canada has free healthcare and I'm a transgender person; so that's awesome that people are taken care of medically. In USA I was denied healthcare by doctors based on their religious beliefs. I even suffered conversion therapy and multiple incidents of discrimination that would have easily ended with legal proceedings in my favour if it had occurred in Canada instead of the USA. The legal help for minorities in USA is a joke and they turn away people unless they feel like media will love the story.
Other benefits would be university cost in Canada is affordable compared to USA. In Canada tuition loans will not start collecting interest until after you have a degree and working (I believe). Also you can declare bankruptcy if you need to unlike in USA. Food here is way healthier than the USA. Social workers here care in helping people find jobs, get the resources they need and there is legal aid if you're jobless.
We're virtually in the same position - I am also transgender, and would have to pay hundreds of dollars for HRT if I was down there, alone.
There are unfortunately a lot more biased, seemingly pious individuals here, who are just downvoting these kinds of comments without even providing proper criticism.
That's what 'patriotism' gives you. Amurrrica!
I've even had folks directly misquote me and put words in my mouth to argue with me. I've never even seen that on HN.
- Ignorance of the First Amendment - Extreme sense of entitlement and expectation that others should do as he/she expects regardless of how the other person feels about it
Phrasing it as "I was surprised to find that doctors in the US can refuse treatment to transgenders based on their religious beliefs" would probably have led to far fewer downvotes.
People are scum when they use religion as an excuse to allow someone's health to be worse than if religion didn't exist to result in the maltreatment compared to a person with an illness they find tolerable by their beliefs for following treatment protocol accepted in the medical community.
I can voice that opinion in Canada or in the USA. Canada has it better for trans people. I'm sure "scum" in USA will not care about that because they're a bunch of narcissists.
I'm visually transgender because of the abuse experienced in the USA. I find out after moving to Canada with a degree, that Starbucks will cover all surgeries a transgender person needs and only for USA employees. That's awesome but after living in the USA, I would still stick it out here in Canada and even if I end up committing suicide in the following months.
Sure, the first nations people have had awful experiences and it's comparable to African Americans in the USA. The thing is that the first nations people still can get the resources and benefits here in Canada that I listed; unlike what's in the USA.
"The Poorest 20% of Americans Are Richer on Average Than Most European Nations"
So I guess Canada > US > Europe?
https://fee.org/articles/the-poorest-20-of-americans-are-ric...
The Wikipedia article you linked to says it's actually closer to 50%.
Quote: "With more than 18 million people, it contains about half of the country's population"
Why do you think the US should aim lower simply because it has more people?
Why don't you think per-capita comparisons are valid?
If anything, the US should be better than smaller OECD countries because it gets a huge benefit from scale.
It feels like you're simply giving up "because we're bigger" on even trying to just equal other OECD countries.
From variance alone you'd expect the US to be middle of the pack, and smaller countries to make up the extremes on any metric you can make up. Particularly if, as in the case of the OECD, you're essentially cherry-picking high performing, smaller countries.
You can't usefully compare ratios where the denominators differ that wildly.
If you want to measure the difference between Canada, nordic countries, the US, etc., you need to cluster them into reasonably-chosen and mostly uniformly-sized chunks, collect your metric on each chunk, and compare the distribution of chunks across systems of government/countries/etc. This would actually result in a statistically valid comparison.
That's a lot more work and as far as I know nobody ever does it.
Because, it's harder to be happy when you consider your money is being spent for 'those people' in Alabama, who are really nothing like you, than it is for you to be upset that your poor neighbor -- who you see everyday -- is benefiting from your taxes.
The United States is a conglomeration of sovereign entities, the states, and thus you see exactly the kind of disarray as you see in other supra-sovereign entities, such as the EU. While many member countries are certainly quite harmonious, with high standards of living, the quality among countries is quite striking, as is the general distaste whenever someone suggests wealth transfers between them.
Canada is also a federation, but, there's so few Canadians, and most of them have a common enemy -- the Quebecois.
You see this even with relatively boring policy, like setting a national speed limit for driving.
This does not imply that local policy is always effective in the US, the reality is that it varies widely depending on where you live in the US and must also operate within certain practical and legal constraints. There are also many perverse interactions between national policy and state policy.
Population matters less than investment per capital per unit area (because people take up real space).
For all their differences, in many other ways Canada and the USA are much more like each other than either are like any other country.
Outside of just asylum seekers, although successful immigration rates are much higher in the US than Canada (about 4x), per capita Canada is much higher (as there is a 10x population difference).
Canada decides who comes to Canada to apply though (via resettlement programs where the seekers have been referred by a third party like UNHCR), it's generally not that people just walk across the border as they do in Europe or the US. If you can choose, for example, to resettle a bunch of academics and their families from Afghanistan, you are in a very different situation vs having the average Afghan population show up at the border which includes a large amount that are functionally illiterate.
This isn't a critique of Canada's selective policy, it's just a very different situation, much like somebody who lives in a rich part of town will not have to deal with the same issues as somebody who lives in an area with high poverty even though they both go to work, buy groceries, take showers and talk to neighbors.
There has been an uptick in recent years also, primarily from the US (but also some sea ports).
While we might be a percentage of the overall US population, we are fortunate to have access to most of the same things as the USA, just with a few extra nice things like health care.
And indeed the US does have a higher per capita GDP. But because it's concentrated in so few hands, most Canadians are better off than most Americans.
They actually aren't that different (distribution-wise) in many places, although obviously Canada has a lot more parts where people are really spread out. Because most of Canada's population lives in the southern 10% or less, there are many regions where density of infrastructure & people looks kinda-sorta-the same. Obviously there are exceptions, and only one large city, etc.
- Silicon Valley pop is 3-4M and Finland is 5M
- Silicon Valley GDP is $275B is higher than Finland $251B
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/30/silicon-v...
Its better to compare the US to the EU.
Like, I'm an American and I've literally never even been to most red states, never been to Texas, don't really know anyone from any of those areas of the country, etc. I don't feel a lot of connection with them.
Then there's, frankly, the racial angle. Most of the Nordic countries have traditionally been pretty ethnically homogeneous, which helps the social cohesion/let's all chip in for government programs together mentality. The US is of course not, and racial fears about 'those people' getting unearned benefits is a HUGE part of the American story.
Basically, the US is the most right-wing of the developed countries, and we tend to have bell-shaped unequal systems where a small % live very well and a larger % are below European standards. Healthcare is like the best example of this.
I've also heard a little talk that our political system is more amenable to lobbying by corporations than a parliamentary system, but I don't know enough about that argument to really advance it
This specifically is what I am not understanding. Why is 10 million supposed to be easier?
10 million is about double the size of the metropolitan area I’m currently in, and roughly a hundred times the size of the last city I worked in. In both cases the population is much too large to be a single community.
But you can agree that you understand and feel connected to the issues of people in your metropolitan area more than those of people in another state? Or in a rural town?
Assembling funds to build a bridge/tunnel/rail in your metro feels more tangible than livestock subsidies in another state?
It only feels more tangible if I personally will use it. In the case of things such as “should Berlin build a new tunnel?” (something I suspect I will never use), the trouble is the more effort I put into understanding such a possibility, the less it matters to me where it is. If I don’t use it, it doesn’t matter unless I make myself think about it, and if I make myself think about it it doesn’t matter if it’s Berlin or Beijing.
Of course, I might be unusual. I did move country after visiting several to decide which was a good choice, which implies a certain range of attitudes about the world. I regard governments the way most people regard smartphone brands.
Even if you don't personally use it, a tunnel in your city will affect the lives of the people you know. It will affect the traffic patterns of you and your friends and family and coworkers. The tunnel as an idea will enter the discourse of your circles. Farm subsidies are far more abstract. The real effects of those are barely felt by urbanites, let alone the people in your specific city.
My friends are mostly the other way around. Local road infrastructure has never been discussed, while Brexit, Bolsonaro, and the Hong Kong riots all are. It is fair to say that we don’t discuss farm subsidies (but then, they are also a very small fraction of our total taxation).
Second, there usually is another layer in most of the US (and Canada, for that matter) which doesn't exist in Switzerland: the county. I think that's more likely to cause inefficiencies than federalism alone.
Also, I'm not actually sure Switzerland has more bureaucracy. It mostly seems comparable in my experience having lived in both countries. Are there any metrics on this?
Anyways, this is actually the first time I've ever heard someone claim that Canada has less bureaucracy than the United States.
Your East vs West coast comment also confused me. I'd argue Canada has the same (or more) regional differences in politics.
There's the East Region (Ontario + Maritimes), Quebec (featuring a different language, heritage, culture and legal system), The Central region, and the West Coast.
Oh, and of course First Nations throughout (which of course the US has as well).
Headline for me is: "Most Canadians Are Now Better Off Than Most Americans"
With a subheadline: "Middle-class people in the U.S. are losing ground to their peers in other rich countries."
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On the other hand, if the top 80% of Canadians were better off than the bottom 80% of Americans, that's a huge difference, but kind of implausible.
In Canada, it's 30%.[2]
[1]http://www.ncsl.org/research/immigration/snapshot-of-u-s-imm... [2]https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/co...