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Comment by sharps_xp | Hacker News Reader

Given how expensive a bike is, I imagine their market being even smaller than the apple iPhone market and a subscription-based health system can arguably be as important to someone as an iPhone, but it doesn't really have that "i want that" shine that iPhone does. I imagine they'll see a lot of growth short term and taper off really soon maybe after 6 years.

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Have you seen how expensive a gym membership is?

A gym membership starts at under $30/mo. I'm not sure at what point money spent becomes rapidly divorced from what you get but I'd wager that point is closer to $30/mo than to $100/mo.

Under $30 a month for a 24 hour fitness membership via Costco with zero initial cost ;)

"Nice" gyms like Equinox are of course significantly more. It's important to segment the gym market into different tiers and niches, and figure out what the market size is for each. Same as for direct equipment sales like this.

To your point, though, I suspect the people who would pony up for a Peloton are the same people who would splurge for a $100/month gym membership instead of a 24 hour, Planet Fitness, or local hole in the wall gym.

Spin classes cost $30/month at spin studios. The people going to those classes are Peloton's target market, not the people content to spin at the local 24 hour fitness.

What city are you in? Here in Portland, spin classes are more than double that. I think Peloton's market overlap is a combination of people who would sign up for Spin classes at a dedicated studio, people who would sign up for Spin classes at a nice gym that gives them as part of a membership, and people who think cycling is a good workout and have high disposable income, but no desire to join a real class or gym of any kind.

It's obviously not for people like me who would happily buy a set of used free weights for a few hundred bucks if I had a garage or basement.

Spin classes cost $30/CLASS at many SoulCycle studios with very modest discounts for frequent visitors. This is why they're releasing their Peloton competitor soon as well.

Not to mention the shady business practices of many gyms. Search "Planet Fitness requiring direct withdrawals" on reddit.

Equinox is $180-$500/mo, and popping up like mushrooms on every block in NY (36 so far). A Peloton bike is downright frugal in comparison.

I think there is probably significant overlap between folks who do both.

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