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Comment by jermaustin1 | Hacker News Reader

So is drop shipping from China now dead?

A major benefit of drop shipping from China was the pretty much $1 shipping for almost any item via ePacket.

Obviously the products are still cheaper, but with a 25% tariff on most goods, and what I can only assume will be a close to DHL price for shipping, a t-shirt drop shipped from China will probably cost more than one made and shipped domestically.

To continue to be competitive, drop shippers are going to have to think about bulk imports and warehousing, thus no longer being drop shippers.

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>So is drop shipping from China now dead?

Probably. This is going to drop a lot of sellers off of Amazon and eBay, and likely have major effects on independent small business dollar/99c stores.

Oh great, now I get to buy the same item from Walmart at 20x the price. If I can even find the one I need.

Wal-Mart merchandise is not shipped via international post. This UPU situation has no influence here.

If Chinese sellers get locked out, where will I turn to buy those same goods?

They won't be locked out, they'll just now have to pay whatever the standard rates for USPS shipping (or whichever carrier they'll use), instead of the artificially low rates mandated by the UPU. Presumably someone (whether in China or in the US) will find it worth selling whatever widget you want, just the shipping cost won't be subsidized.

You're still going to be free to buy those things, you just won't be getting subsidized, below cost shipping.

Who knows what Trump will do to their shipping costs to punish China.

Also businesses like Harbor Freight will benefit, because it will be much harder/more expensive to buy direct. Same thing with the "cheap" brands at places like Menards.

This will slow the pace of innovation in a lot of areas, especially among electronics hobbyists. Cheap chinese circuit boards from Shenzen are a major driver for electronics related businesses, robotics, drones, and lots of other areas.

This is going to hurt a lot of people in the US, and put more money in the hands of big business like most other initiatives coming out of the government lately.

All this isn't talking about the elephant in the room, which is the fact that this agreement is changing because our delusional President doesn't like non whites.

It's happening because many Americans don't see the value in subsidizing electronics hobbyists.

It won't hurt robotics or drones companies, that's pure fearmongering. No business is having circuit boards shipped via ePacket.

There are lots of companies that buy in bulk from China and have US distribution. They will still be around for your Shenzen electronics needs.

I have very little sympathy for people who were depending on what was essentially taxpayer-subsidized shipping from China. If you can't do what you're trying to do without that subsidy, you probably shouldn't be doing it. I'm certainly not interested in having the USPS lose money so someone can save a few bucks on a servo or flight controller vs. buying it from a legitimate retailer like Adafruit or Hobbyking (which has US warehouses in addition to its HK ones; I expect they'll need to expand the domestic ones now).

The end-user cost of a good needs to encompass the price of manufacturing it and transporting it, inclusive of as many externalities as we can. Too many problems in the world are caused by artificially cheap goods that don't capture their full cost.

Keeping stuff cheap for the purpose of having cheap stuff is not a noble goal.

Having worked at the USPS, I can say definitively it will lose money anyway, and it is not taxpayer supported except by special request (USPS can ask congress for funding for special needs, which they can deny)

So, despite all the people complaining here about "muh dollars subsidizing", that isn't correct. See the USPS FAQ for more info.

The UPU situation was not great, but it has a limited impact on taxpayers.

Why would dollar stores be affected? Are they not buying stuff in bulk and shipping themselves?

Dollar General, Family Dollar, etc, won't feel it, but little independent small 99c/dollar store businesses will.

Express packages typically cost $2+ per KG for average consumers within China, if you volume is massive, you can negotiate the price to $0.5 to 1.

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