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Comment by brudgers | Hacker News Reader

If Apple buys anyone big, it will be Disney. [prediction #1]

Why would they do that? Disney already does pretty much anything Apple asks them to, and acquiring them would make Apple direct competitors with the other media companies whose content fills out iTunes. The two companies have very little overlap, so there's not much of a case for doing it to eliminate competition or to make the joint operation more efficient. And Jobs already sits on the board at Disney and owns a ton of shares, so where's his motivation to push for the deal coming from, given that he already has a great deal of power and money from the current setup without the day-to-day headaches of managing a massive media company?

I'm not betting on a $5 billion+ acquisition by Apple any time soon. But my prediction is that Disney is the target IF Apple spends billions on a big acquisition.

Apple would buy Disney for the same reason Ted Turner bought MGM/UA. If you are going to be a media distribution company (which is where Apple is headed) and you want total control (which Jobs always does), then owning content is part of the strategy.

The fact that Jobs sits on the board and owns a bunch of stock is evidence of his personal interest in Disney, not evidence against it. From a branding standpoint there is no better combination than Apple and Disney - don't be like Cringly and live between the Atlantic and Pacific - think worldwide. Jobs isn't insane enough to spend billions on a US cable network just to shut it down on the off chance that everyone in North Carolina will start using MobileMe 2.0.

BTW, Owning Disney would allow Jobs to dictate terms to other content distribution channels.

> then owning content is part of the strategy.

Why doesn't Apple buy the companies behind the best iPad/iPhone apps to make them iOS-only?

I mean, it would make sense in a way, and in the "Console Wars" console-makers have been doing this since the Nintendo-Sega days, buying studios and making exclusive games.

They don't buy them because: 1. iOS apps don't cost Apple anything to develop. 2. iOS app sales provide Apple with a 30% margin. 3. The distribution of iOS apps is completely under Apple's control. 4. They can always incorporate any important functionality into iOS. 5. iOS apps aren't content.

>iOS apps aren't content.

Under what reasonable definition of content is this true? Angry Birds and Plants vs Zombies sure feel like content to me.

Does someone collect a license fee every time they are presented?

Could never happen. Disney has a $75B market cap - it would take at least $100B to take them over (roughly 1/3 of Apple's market cap).

Having ~$50B in liquid assets and Steve Jobs owning ~7% of the target company are good arguments to finance a hypothetical deal of that scope.

Steve Jobs's stake doesn't just fold into Apple. But, it doesn't have to be cash -- could be a merger (or partially one).

Steve Jobs already owns 7.3% of Disney - I don't think Steve will go for Disney anytime soon but who knows.

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