Dead like COBOL - Is Java ready for replacement?

A co-worker, who worked with COBOL years ago, keeps getting phone calls offering him COBOL jobs. Very highly paying COBOL jobs. He laughs at them.

In other words, a dead programming language doesn't mean that there's no demand for it anymore. What it means is that good programmers won't touch it with a stick.

So indeed, java developers shouldn't worry - they'll have plenty of jobs well into the future - the platform is just too prevalent, and especially in financial institutions that only recently moved over from java to COBOL, and will take another 30 years to make the next move. On the other hand, if you like programming and it's more than just a way to make a living, then java isn't where you want to be.

If false reports of Java's demise only have the effect of making some middle-managers think twice before instinctively reaching for Java, they will at least have done some good.

What I dislike is the easiness and frequency with which we label ourselves and others as X developers for any given language X. As much as I use Java and prefer to use Ruby, neither of those two language define me as a programmer.

People typically separate off into their different "communities", where the boundaries are programming language boundaries, and they remain as loyal as church members. Language loyalty can help a language become successful, but does it have a net benefit in the software industry?

Agriculture had to become an order of magnitude more productive to meet the demands of a growing population. It did this through new technology. So Java was farming the old way and with new xml libraries and closures it will become an order of magnitude more productive just like farming. Do not worry java developers the sky is not falling.