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Comment by acd | Hacker News Reader

Toyota and Volkswagen will make more affordable higher quality main stream electric cars.

This assumes those companies will solve the energy storage issue in a reasonable amount of time.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Tesla does a lot of shit wrong, but Musk is ahead of people RE: batteries and energy storage importance.

I am reminded of Bezos saying that their headstart in AWS with no viable competitor for years and years on end is what catapulted Amazon to what it is today. Tesla has a shot of making that true with regard to batteries.

I'm not convinced. My prediction is Tesla will be a subsidiary of one of the big car companies within a decade, probably one of the laggards.

I actually think this is the most likely outcome as well.

Serious question- what is Tesla's technological advantage with batteries? I always hear people say that Tesla batteries are above and beyond all competitors, and then I read articles like this which make me doubt that claim: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-7364605/Tes...

1. A Tesla goes about 50% further per KwH than an e-tron.

2. Audi had to scale back 2019 production of etron due to battery apply supply issues. It calls into question Volkswagen group's ability to make millions of EVs in 2022 as planned if they can't make 50,000 etrons in 2019. https://www.electrive.com/2019/04/23/audi-revises-production...

3. The table in the article you linked shows Tesla way ahead of everything else. Did you like the right article?

No, the Teslas are behind the Hyundais and the I-Pace in What Car?'s "Real Range" test cycle. Here's a better link:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-7137701/Bes...

https://whatcar.com/news/what-car-real-range-which-electric-...

What Car? claims its test cycle is more realistic and more representative of actual range. The best Tesla finishes fourth. The Kia e-Niro is equal second with the Jaguar I-Pace and the Hyundai Kona is first.

That's a pretty nice test cycle. But they oddly hobbled Tesla by choosing the model 3 variant that substantially sacrifices range for performance (mostly with an inefficient but fun wheel+tire).

If they had chosen one of the other Model 3 variants it would have likely been #1 by some margin, yet still with significantly higher performance than the other top contenders.

On the plus side, the fact there is competition at all is utterly wonderful. In the same test a few years ago it would've been all Teslas at the top.

> But they oddly hobbled Tesla by choosing the model 3 variant that substantially sacrifices range for performance

Maybe, maybe not. On the EPA test cycle the Model 3 Long Range and the Model 3 Performance all wheel drive models both claim a range of 310 miles. But on the WLTP test cycle the Long Range gets 348 miles and the Performance gets 329 miles. The rear wheel drive Model 3 Long Range was discontinued.

It'd be interesting to see the comparison under What Car?'s test cycle but they might end up pretty similar to each other.

Well, they didn't include any of Tesla's long range models and i-pace owners have been saying (on forums) that their real world range is much less than the official number.

And the rationalization for losing to Hyundai's Kia Niro and Hyundai Kona?

How far can the best Tesla go in 24 hours? The Porsche Taycan can do 3,425 KMs:

https://electrek.co/2019/08/19/porsche-taycan-electric-car-2...

I don't understand how the batteries can be the competitive advantage when it's Panasonic producing the batteries.

Panasonic makes the battery cells. Tesla makes the battery packs, which is the product that counts in the end. This happens under the same roof. Tesla was also heavily involved in developing the battery cell chemistry and design.

AFAICT, the value of Tesla’s battery packs is that they’re cheaper, have better longevity and charge rate than the competition, and that this is due to the vertical integration of the whole design & manufacturing process. So, many small details slightly better than the competition, at lower cost. Also, Tesla’s drivetrain & pack integration is more efficient than competition due to many tiny improvements, leading to fewer kWh & hence dollars of cost per mile of range.

It's going to be interesting to see how it pans out for VW, they seem to be betting the company on the transition.

On the other hand, despite the Prius, Toyota seem to be laggards in this area.

Well Up is a brilliant city car. I do think they get the stuff right.

Perhaps in 3,5,10 years. But if you want to buy now, you'll have to be very emotional about it if you don't consider Tesla's cars the best option.

Only if the compromises in a Tesla do not outweigh the presence of fart jokes (well, and no oil changes).

But then, I just honestly do not see how anyone in good conscience could give even a red cent to Elon.

yes, tesla dominates high end market, there is space for other manufacturers in middle and low ends though

Tesla don't dominate the high end market, BMW alone make 2,500,000 cars a year.

high end electric car market. BMW is mid range anyway

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