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Comment by kenhwang | Hacker News Reader

That's an interesting interpretation of the data. To me, it looks like Model S/X sales have noticeably dropped since the introduction of the Jaguar and Audi.

I don't think there will be a singular Tesla killer, but rather, Tesla is increasingly going to be attacked by all sides: Hyundai/Nissan/GM on the mass market side, Jaguar/Audi/Mercedes/BMW on the luxury side, and Porsche on the ultra luxury high end. The Model 3/Y is currently positioned in the premium segment between mass market and luxury. That's sorta Honda/Toyota territory; I think they'll need to bring out EVs for Tesla to be in serious trouble.

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Another aspect is repair. Speaking as someone who works full time as an engine mechanic, sourcing parts or even being allowed to do repair work for a Tesla is a tedious process. Everything comes from one factory with no distribution network, so a door panel repair can take months to fix . In contrast, I can get nearly any part for an Audi delivered to the shop in 2 days and the digital books for service interval and installation are all at my fingertips.

My personal experience with Audi was what you described. Car was involved in a fender bender. Insurance said bring the car to any shop. New parts were ordered (presumably pre-painted) and installed with the car returned in 3 days.

That's an issue Tesla has, but I don't think that would at all explain a drop in Model 3 sales.

I think it has some impact. People who would buy a Tesla are clued into doing online research, and see the news about their repair problems.

I personally would have already leased/bought a Model 3 if I didn't have serious concerns about their supply chain and repair issues brought to light by people like Rich Rebuilds and others. I am waiting it out to see if it improves, or if Tesla goes bankrupt/forced merged and their IP lives on elsewhere.

This to me is the biggest issue with Tesla- they aren't a startup that just did its first big product release and is struggling to keep up with demand, they are a 16 year old company that is still failing to keep up with demand and can not support its customer base.

They aren't building on a scale never seen before, this is relatively small scale for the traditional manufacturers. Yet you hear stories about how 3's in particular seem to be in some cases thrown out the door out of sheer will.

Tesla is just kind of fascinating this way- pushing the envelope in so many places, but just floundering to get the basics right in so many others. I really hope they succeed, and may even buy a model 3 when I am next in the market for a new car, but I feel they are still selling to "early adopters" when they really should have been out of these growing pains years ago. I would never recommend one to my less tech enthused family members.

I considered a Tesla but Tesla simply sucks as a car company. Body gaps are quite bad, apparently a bit improved on model 3. However, TFL (youtube car review channel) damaged a quarter panel/bumper on their car. It took 4-5 months for the whole repair because waiting on parts. This is simply unacceptable. I cannot comprehend who would want to own a car like that.

Plus, there was a guy rebuilding a crashed model S and had issues sourcing some components, then Tesla gave him issues activating the car.

Perhaps the model 3 is cannibalizing s and x sales instead? It is much more modern and nearly identical in speed and has ample storage and comfort. The s is better if you need more space and longer range, x if storage is your need. I imagine s and x are a hard sell with the steering wheel UX being much more complex and confusing plus the similarities compared with the model 3 for a much higher price tag.

What happened with the Model 3 in 2019 that would cause the drop off in 2019 sales? If anything, the Model 3 would've impacted sales from 2017-onward when it was introduced.

It began selling in large quantities and more locales. Word of mouth, access to test drive, and the vast amount of internet/media hype, and nearly comparable performance could combine to reduce likelihood to buy above the 3.

They only started delivering Model 3s in any significant numbers around the end of 2018.

And the cheaper SR+ version only became available this year.

> That’s sorta Honda/Toyota territory.

A kid in my office said the same thing and I have no idea where people are getting this from. A brand new Model 3 costs about as much as an Audi A4, BMW 3-Series, or Mercedes-Benz C-Class.

The Model 3 is a compact executive car, and competes directly in that category. It is for the mass affluent. Not the mass market.

If we're talking about the price, you're right.

But if we're talking about actually sitting in the car, Tesla is definitely in Honda/Toyota territory.

Yes, that's true.

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