What makes you so confident? I think the current belief, as decided in Lenz was that the law requires copyright holders to consider fair use before filing a takedown notice:

"The panel held that the DCMA requires copyright holders to consider fair use before sending a takedown notification, and that failure to do so raises a triable issue as to whether the copyright holder formed a subjective good faith belief that the use was not authorized by law."

https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca9/13...

Have I missed some precedent that overturns this?

Lawyers are court officers and are duty bound not to advance frivolous or false claims. They can be charged with barratry for violating their oath in this regard.