I personally don't think this is necessarily the inversion that is going to be predictive of a recession because the inversion is occurring at the long end (the 10/30 years spiking as opposed to the 3 month/2 year selling off). I think the short end is far more important than the long end because the short end tells you about monetary conditions in the economy. If the short end yields start moving up, that means that it's going to become more expensive to borrow money so spending and capex contracts, which is what can bring on a recession. Even that depends on the degree to which monetary conditions deteriorate.
Why are long bonds spiking? Because other central banks around the world are even more dovish than the US Fed, so money that is looking for long-term safe haven investments is coming aggressively into US long bonds.
Take a look at three month commercial paper rates, which are actually in a major downtrend (not surprising given Fed policy): https://ycharts.com/indicators/3_month_aa_financial_commerci...
Three month commercial paper rates represent the cost at which businesses are currently borrowing for short-term expenses on the open market. That cost is going down, too. I take that to mean monetary conditions are very good in the sense that there is no shortage of money floating around the economy looking for a return. Without some major fundamental change in economic conditions I don't see how equities can be expected to drop a whole lot from here. I think this is a blow off the top for rates that is going to be short-lived, especially if other central banks start tightening policy which nobody seems to consider a possibility. But if inflation starts creeping up, then they will likely start raising rates or keeping them where they are. Ironically, when central banks raise rates that is usually an extremely bearish indicator. It's a bit puzzling to me that everyone seems convinced that lower rates are bearish.
Also, I can't think of a time when literally everyone focused on a single indicator at the same time, used said indicator as a predictive tool, and were proven correct. That's just not how markets work. People get scared and excited at the worst times tactically.