Ever heard of it? Probably the craziest project of the decade. MBS had plans to sell a sizable chunk of Saudi Aramco in order to invest 500 billions (yes, billions) in a prototype of a city of the future. Electricity fully renewable (easy, in the middle of the desert), a special legal status to make a non-sharia law enclave in Saudi Arabia, and, the most interesting: a fully automated production.
Softbank was a close partner, this led to the 100 billions Vision Fund that is a huge player right now. At the time, many companies were circling around that, wondering how to get a share, wondering how they could associate with MBS without appearing to be a dictator's ally. At the time he was cultivating a reformist image, the young guy who tries to make the old monarchy evolve.
But after Kashoggi's murder, MBS himself admitted that it killed the project. That it can't really be talked about for at least a decade. No one wants to be associated with him anymore. Think about it: what company could survive the PR catastrophe it would cause?
I am as cynical as the next guy, but I don't think it is fair to say Kashoggi's murder went unnoticed.
And right now, I am delaying a trip to Shenzhen because of these riots, and I had wanted to explore other providers than Chinese ones for a while, this makes this item go a bit higher in my list of things to be done asap. I doubt I am alone in that case.
Recognise and arm Taiwan.
Sales and recognition are restrained to avoid inflaming China. The risk of pissing off China doesn’t balance well against the risk of them invading.
If Xi moves on Hong Kong, however, the latter changes. That makes the former risk more palatable.
There is only one UN Security Council seat for China.
Taiwan can call itself whatever it wants.
Recognising the island’s right to govern itself would be reasonable. Nobody would recognise Taiwan’s claim on the mainland.
> There is only one UN Security Council seat for China
Out of all the challenges around recognising Taiwan, this is like the nine hundredth most pressing.
EDIT: Don't know why I've been downvoted for answering the question. If the U.S. wanted to reply, that's simply the most likely legal mechanism.
I don't know either. People seem to automatically assume that a Western response means military intervention. That's just unrealistic. The US and Europe have significant diplomatic and economic carrots and sticks at their disposal. As you say, asset freezes and travel sanctions are the most likely as would economic sanctions.
I am sure there are a huge amount of hard evidence in the intelligence agencies about this.
It could sway public and companies from buying stuff made in China, not wanting to associate with this real-world dystopia.
A Chinese economic slowdown may result, causing severe internal problems for China.