What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?
If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this is something they can do, to give themselves the option in the future. I could be wrong, but I certainly hope not.
If the army rolls in, I'll probably seriously reconsider sticking around and might book a one-way out of here, because at that point it might well turn into a war zone.
Whatever one's opinion of what the protesters are demanding they are breaking the law and rioting (as per Hong Kong law that dates back from British rule), and many of their actions are simply not acceptable. They are really not helping themselves.
The police will respond to that anywhere.
Personally I think the PLA option is a non-starter at the moment. HK for all its bads is still vitally important to the Chinese economy especially during the current trade war with the USA.
This is why I said "openly."
Economically, Hong Kong is increasingly irrelevant to China - it's only like the fifth largest city by GDP, and there are 10 more catching up quickly. HK is far more important as a symbol, and if I were Xi Jinping headed into a turbulent global economy with flagging growth at home I wouldn't want it to look like I couldn't control my people.
That said, it's a delicate balancing act. Too little response and you seem weak; too harsh and you draw international condemnation and confirm the worst fear of everyone who is counting on China to join the world order rather than try and upend it.
BTW, HK while definitely not the economic powerhouse it once was, it still has a pretty special place as a truly international city for the PRC government, which is something intangible and cannot be expressed in pure GDP number.
(This is already another HN post "Chinese military entering Shenzen just across the boarder with HongKong": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20683940)
In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will.
It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.
Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912...
And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.
There is their whole mythology of "centuries of humiliation" and their warlord period for actual stand together or hang apart sentiment. However the sort of "unity" talked about is really just propagandized expansionism. I see it no different than Putin's foolish revanchism for the former USSR.
I wonder how much of that unity sentiment is/was constructed and pushed on by leadership due to the area around current China being littered with competing kingdoms and a lot of internal strife and disarray throughout its history, not just the past 100 years.
In Chinese cinema, or at least some films, the theme of unity and to some extent 'glorious leadership' seems to be prevalent. Just came to mind that even in some Jet Li films (or equivalent) set in more ancient times you could probably be faced with some monologues or statements to that tune and at least I was a bit taken aback by how blatant it felt.
It's trying to push a narrative to argue what is part of the country...
Almost everything we appear to hold so dear and immutable or self evident seems kinda arbitrary depending on how far back you go and whether you consider yourself part of this team or that.
Nationalism or tribalism is a whole lot of make believe, is what I'm saying.
7 and a half centuries before Yue Fei, there were Liu Yu[1]. 100 years before him there was Zu Ti. They both tried to fight northern nomads, and were remembered till this day due to their success.
Unification of the nation IS in the genes of the people. There is no question of that.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yue_Fei [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Wu_of_Liu_Song
Citation needed.
Cherry picked facts are not universal truth...
Stamford Raffles "took" Singapore from the Malay sultanate in the 1820s. In 1963, we finally got it back, but let them go barely two years later due to ingrained cultural differences that manifested during the meantime.
With the rise of so many capable cities on the mainland, perhaps pursuit of unification is just not worth the trouble anymore.
Maybe to you? It's clear from China's actions that they think otherwise and they're willing to do whatever it takes to ensure control and unification.
This is very different from HK and China.
As one Chinese taxi driver in Kedah told me, they were supposed to keep quiet and stay away from politics. At least back then, especially influential Malays feared their absolute power is in danger. Didn't help that Li (who always wanted Malaysia to be a state were every ethnicity has equal rights) openly spoke about how poor Malays are held back both by their religious and lay leaders.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3014695...
University starts again soon and it is expected that the protests will loose steam.
That's a boring story so people don't talk about it.
Because from my view, they are still going strong.
Marshal Law = halfway decent comic book
Martial Law = military dictatorship of an area