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Comment by gwbas1c | Hacker News Reader

You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet.

The biggest cost of an electric car is the battery; and the cost of batteries is dropping very fast. Everything else is significantly cheaper in an electric vehicle except for the cost of the battery.

(Tesla used to say there's a "Moore's Law" of battery capacity, which is that every 7 years the capacity doubles for the same cost.)

Everyone (in the auto industry) knows this, it's just a matter of deciding how to plan for this. Either you can make a lot of hybrids for a decade; or you can sell EVs side-by-side with conventional cars.

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The breakeven for electric vehicles has already come, but not in the form of a multi-ton car.

When I bike around Seattle, there are a plethora of Radpower eBikes with various modifications, either for towing, or hauling kids. Cost, traffic and the convienence of parking has driven this modeswitch, as you can park near anywhere and rarely have blocking traffic like in traditional cars.

Electric Scooters are also extending the range people are willing to walk, making short trips much more convenient, and leveraging distant transit much easier.

>You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet.

I think a case could be made for us already being at that point, if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in. ICE vehicles are obscenely mechanically complex. That complexity inevitably leads to lots of repair bills over an ICE vehicle's lifetime.

Contrast that with the average electric car, which doesn't even have a multispeed transmission, just a single-speed step-down. About the most complex mechanical systems in an electric are differentials and shocks. I'm sure someone will pitch in here with a horror story about a high repair bill on an electric, but I'd suggest that's because economies of scale on electrics' parts haven't ramped up yet, and there isn't a large corps of electric-experienced mechanics.

Indeed.

Most of the longer term maintenance costs of Model S's seem to be down to luxury components that aren't necessary (like air suspension, funky door handles, big touchscreen).

An EV Civic could well be bulletproof.

> if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in

EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range.

The batteries for EVs need to get cheaper and more durable for the second-hand EV car market to be competitive with the second-hand ICE car market.

>> EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range.

Can you back this up with actual data? Because this is simply not true:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-...

TESLOOP’S TESLA MODEL S SURPASSES 400,000 MILES (643,737 KM)

"Battery degradation over the course of the first 194,000 miles was ~6% with multiple supercharges a day to 95-100%, instead of the recommended 90-95%. Between 194,000 and 324,000 miles Tesloop experienced battery degradation of ~22% (see below for details)."

What's important to note is that the vehicle was mainly charged using dc fast chargers (often multiple times a day). Had this not been the case, degradation would have been even lower.

Additional data: https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2019/2/6/tesloops-high-mileage-...

The years aren't on it yet. Batteries degrade with use and with time. That car is only 3 years old.

Tesla warrants their batteries at 70% capacity for 8 years for the Model 3. The Model S and X have an 8 year warranty with no capacity guarantee:

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

So that's about what you should expect from a Tesla battery.

The time factor has already been solved by the battery management system (BMS) as it keeps the pack at an ideal temperature to vastly prolong the life. Battery chemistry will not change much over time as long as it does not get too hot/cold.

In addition, current data indicates that for the first 50,000 miles (100,000 km), most Tesla battery packs will lose about 5% of their capacity, but after the 50,000-mile mark, the capacity levels off and it looks like it could be difficult to make a pack degrade by another 5%.

There's a ton of data and anecdotes on this subject at the https://teslamotorsclub.com forums.

Everyone's got anecdotes. Here's one.

3% degradation after 35k KMs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avGUGFrLrVc

Then 8% degradation 1 year later at 100k KMs and the car now has a reduced rate of charge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loulJ3ResDg

So why would I buy a 10 year old Tesla? If it requires a new battery I'd be better off just buying a different or newer car.

>EVs lose out here because of battery degradation.

You're absolutely correct. That's why every Tesla with over 100,00 miles on it has been sent to the junkyard because it no longer takes a charge.

Oh, and one consequence of rapidly falling battery prices is that if at some point your battery capacity eventually does get too low, you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost.

> you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost.

For how much? If your future cheap battery costs $100 per kilowatt hour at the pack level, you're spending $8,000 for an 80 kilowatt hour battery. That's a large small fraction.

Ten years from now it will probably be more like 25$ per kilowatt hour. And don't forget that any capacity the old pack has means it can be sold for grid storage. But even if it is higher, you still will have saved a lot more in total operating cost.

An that is the basic point the OP was making. EV's are already a better deal, it's just that they are new and so most people don't realize it.

And one more point. Once the swing to EV's starts to happen in a few years, then the resale value of ICE's is going to plummet, and you would lose a lot more that way if you bought one than you would pay for a replacement battery.

> Ten years from now it will probably be more like 25$ per kilowatt hour.

You've fallen victim to wishful thinking. Show me even one projection at that price point.

> then the resale value of ICE's is going to plummet

Which makes it a buyer's market which is even more reason to buy a secondhand ICE vehicle over a secondhand EV.

>You've fallen victim to wishful thinking. Show me even one projection at that price point.

Battery prices have been falling rapidly. They went down 35% in the last year alone. This is partly due to improved technology and partly to increasing economies of scale. Those two trends are predicted to continue.

>Which makes it a buyer's market which is even more reason to buy a secondhand ICE vehicle over a secondhand EV.

The problem is that if ICE resale prices drop, then the effective price of buying an ICE new goes up, which steer people toward buying an EV instead. EV prices are predicted to reach sticker price parity with ICE's around 2024. And their total lifetime ownership costs are already lower. When that happens then ICE sales are going to drop rapidly and be replaced by ICE's.

Remember, the original article is about GM and VW giving up on hybrids and switching to battery EV's. They are doing this because they are aware of what is going to happen and realize they will go bankrupt if they don't switch as fast as possible (and they make their money selling new cars, so people buying used ICE's is not going to save them).

> Battery prices have been falling rapidly.

Show me a single projection that claims $25 a kwh at the pack level in 10 years.

You're right for total cost of ownership. But in a few years sticker price will be equal, and then the market is going to swing to EV's.

>> sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car.

Maybe, but the limitations of electric vehicles still mean it is an apple and oranges comparison. Electric cars are still a long way off in terms of range, towing capacity, utility and winter performance. They might seem great in California, especially as a second car, but they are still a long long way off from replicating how many non-rich people use their vehicles.

We don't all live in SF. Personally, I'd need a stable 1000km/day range capacity, in winter/-30, in mountains, pulling several hundred pounds of people/stuff, before I'd even consider electric for my one and only car. Price is beside the point. I'm starting to think that zero net emission tech (diesel from air etc) might catch up before all-electric becomes the widespread standard.

I'd say the breakeven point for electric vehicles has already come. Electric cars have yet to hit this breakeven point, but waves of people have modeswitched to eBikes and electric scooters to get out of snarled traffic, shorten their commutes and lower their cost of transport

> towing capacity

what? Electric vehicles are vastly superior in towing capacity. The Model X from tesla can TOW a boeing jet -- 230,000 pounds. Now that has some tradeoffs for range, i believe. but in terms of actual towing capacity, it's leaps and bounds ahead of any other vehicle capable of towing. if you'd said 'towing range', i might be willing to accept that.

range itself is also just not really a concern any more. 300+ miles of range on a single charge is more than enough for the vast majority of drivers.

winter performance is possibly somethign to worry about, but when you can charge overnight at your home, you can still leave every morning with a 'full tank', so it's also just not really a concern any more.

Towing capacity isn't same as being able to pull heavy things. Pulling has to be matched with the corresponding braking power, which with regenerative braking means a massively over-spec regenerative system. Or you give up on regenerative braking and just install bigger disks, hammering range. That tesla can move an airbus along a runway (so can any honda civic btw) but try moving that aircraft down a hill at speed ... heading towards a sharp turn ... beside a cliff .. over a river... and maybe there is some ice.

Trains have been using regenerative braking to stop massive multi-ton loads for decades. I don't think this is a real issue.

What?

The towing capacity of a Model X is around 5k pounds. It's illegal to tow more the door sticker says on public roads in the US. For comparison, depending on what kind of Ford F-150 you get, you can tow from 5k to 8k pounds. According to some [1], you're also looking at a 45-60% decrease in range if you tow something like a camper.

[1] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122487_towing-a-camper...

You must be living under a rock. A Long Range Tesla Model 3 can easily do 1000km/day range using a supercharger and can now charge 75 miles in 5 minutes or up to 1,000 miles per hour (https://www.tesla.com/blog/introducing-v3-supercharging).

EVs are being widely adopted in Europe, with Norway (harsh winters) taking the lead. I don't get the whole "EVs are only suitable in California" narrative.

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/07/Europe-EV-Sales-Janu...

I live near Boise Idaho (also harsh winters) and I see 2-4 Teslas in my commute and I only drive to the office 3 times a week.

Around June of last year, we bought a used Model S and eventually replaced my wife's SUV with a used Model X. So far, we do not foresee going back to ICE cars. I haven't been into a gas station in forever.

>> 1000km/day range using a supercharger.

They can do that today. I;m driving a car from 2010. How are the 10+yo teslas doing? And when I say 1000km/day I mean 1000km in perhaps eight hours of driving, not eight hours of driving plus another eight hours of battery logistics.

>> and I only drive to the office 3 times a week.

So you have a part-time job in an office? That's part of the California narrative. You aren't a forestry worker. You aren't a local equipment rep. You aren't a tradesperson. You are someone with a relatively short and stable commute to a fixed location around which you can plan the battery recharge cycles. That is a luxury many people cannot afford.

>> and I see 2-4 Teslas in my commute ...

So they are still the freak/edge cases then. I saw at least a few hundred vehicles on the highway over the weekend (BC, Canada, proper mountains, sometimes 200+km between gas stations) not one seemed electric, certainly none were teslas. Lots of teslas in Vancouver, but I don't live in Vancouver.

At some point in history, there was only one gas station in the world. It takes time to build infrastructure. People like you seem to miss that. My Tesla can go 300 miles and charge most of that in about 15 minutes. Plug it in, walk into the gas station to take a piss and buy a snack and walk out. Done. I did that a month ago when I drove to vegas. It's not perfect, but it's incredible.

There's a second thing that most people with gas cars don't realize. EVs do REALLY well in traffic. The slower the better. Gas cars continue to burn fuel while idling. When I'm in traffic, my 300 mile tesla goes to 500+ mile range because moving an EV at 5-10mph is optimal conditions.

> People like you seem to miss that.

Unnecessarily rude, and clearly untrue considering the poster displayed an excellent understanding of the logistics of the situation. I don't think he or anyone else is opposed to the infrastructure catching up, but he's alive and working today and needs solutions that work right now.

Yeah, it was a bit rude. Thanks for calling me out. It's just annoying to hear the same complaints over and over when things are improving so much. 10 years ago what we have now was futuristic and a joke.

I have a friend who is a real estate agent that drive up to 350 miles (563km) a day. He has zero issues. He does not have to "plan" to recharge since the car's nav system does it for him.

>> I mean 1000km in perhaps eight hours of driving, not eight hours of driving plus another eight hours of battery logistics.

You are grossly underestimating the current state EV charging (you seem to be just a tad ignorant on the subject). A typical charging session on a Tesla supercharger is only 10-20 minutes.

At most, a 1017+ km road-trip would only add 40-60 minutes of combined supercharging (3 stops https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?plan_uuid=1366ac4f-d815-4e9...). I know because myself and many others have done it.

>> I saw at least a few hundred vehicles on the highway over the weekend (BC, Canada, proper mountains, sometimes 200+km between gas stations) not one seemed electric, certainly none were teslas

I can't tell if your being serious or not. ICE cars have like a 100+ year head-start, not to mention the infrastructure. Of course that would be the case, but not for long...

I'm ignorant? Do you know how many supercharging stations there are in my area?

Google "Tesla Chargers BC". The closest one to me now is literally hundreds of kilometers away. There are places near me, places that I sometimes work, that are literally a thousand kilometers from a tesla supercharger. Please do not assume that everyone lives in teslaland.

> EVs are being widely adopted in Europe

Indeed, just came back from a two-week vacation in Northern Germany, had to drive there from the South.

Didn't drive EV, but still couldn't help but notice that at every rest stop we made at a bigger Autobahnrasttätte there was either a Tesla supercharger station or some other brand EV charger. Could probably have made the same 600 km trip with an EV.

Tesla's have also become quite a common sight on German autobahnen, don't really notice the other brand EV's because I'm not much of a car guy.

I live in New England and take my Model 3 on long ski trips all the time.

Remember, an electric motor has much more torque than a gas motor. The only obstacle is battery cost.

BTW, go look up Ford's video of the F150 conversion to EV that they did. It towed a crazy amount of weight.

I drove 1000km in my Tesla in one day last week in Europe.

It took approximately 12 hours in total with approx 1.5-2 hours of charging time.

"8 hours of battery logistics" is something you've just made up.

It's more like you're in range of a rapid charger and it's a non issue, or you're not in which case you cannot do more than a full charge in a day (a European 230V outlet takes more than a day for a full charge, American 110V is slower).

Granted it won't do that in winter in the mountains whilst pulling several hundreds pounds worth of stuff. That's something that, like, 0.5% of car owners actually do. The emissions from that sort of activity are probably less important than stuff like tractors.

Good for you. They work well where there are chargers to be had, but the three EV trips I've taken over a few 100km all resulted in silly side trips to find charging stations, which were often closed or the wrong type for the vehicle we had. Those side trips meant more time charging and less time getting to where we wanted to go. Net result = 50% of the drive time was wasted as we dealt with finding charge. It was a laughable situation while on vacation, but totally unacceptable when work is on the line.

And not everyone can afford a tesla. They are still luxury vehicles.

I agree with you that pretty much every other electric car is a waste of time. In every sense.

The same for chargers below 22kW. Only for overnight or opportunistic use.

I hope that in 10 or so years there's the equivalent of a Civic or Corolla that just keeps on going - new cars are luxury in general.

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