Sure. Do we have any reason to think that's not working? When an investor makes a successful investment, and the company becomes very profitable and has spare cash they can't find a productive use for, and give it back to the original investors...
...what do you think the investor is going to do with it?
1) Look for another good investment (something they have a track record for doing)
2) Pile the money up in a big pile and have a bonfire, as they literally have no other ideas for what to do with the money.
3) Something else?
1 is the obvious answer, yet you seem to be the answer must be 2 and can't possibly be 1, but you provide no reason to think so, the linked article provides no reason to think so, and you don't even seem to have realised 1 is a possible outcome.
Further, you seem to be implicitly assuming that a company management who are not professional investors and who don't think they can find a good use for the money will still do a better job of making investments than the firm's investors, who are. Is there a reason for this?
And yes, creating 50 jobs that automate away 1000 jobs is a net loss of 950 jobs. Even if those 50 happen to be in tech or other industries that you benefit from.
Keeping 950 jobs that are technologically uncompetitive is a good way to create a crisis down the road. Let's not confuse the investment and automation debates.
But standing in the way of progress telling it to stop is never going to be a realistic solution.
The best way to stimulate labor is to stimulate demand, aka giving money to the people who will spend. It's sickening to see people pretend that massive corporate tax cuts and middle-wage tax hikes are going to do anything other than reduce labor demand.
As you point out investors are not stupid, but why should they be trusted to do the right thing for everyone else ?
See: Softbank
Apple has ~$250 billion in cash on hand. Berkshire Hathaway has $122 billion. Alphabet has ~$100 billion. Where do you invest when all that is left is the roulette table (sidenote: Alphabet should be making risky bets: Alpha Bet [Alpha is investment return above benchmark])?
Alphabet does make risky bets, they spin off new companies constantly, and on their last earnings report lost about $1 billion/quarter on it.
As the article points out, money is moving around but that’s it.
I really don't understand how people still push some version of trickle-down economics. Corporate buybacks are exactly this. Using taxpayer money to fund it only hurts the long term value of the economy.
> Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.
If you were aspiring to be the next Bezos or Gates, you too might be inclined to support tax policies that would benefit your future self.
Socialism isn't an absolute, it's a spectrum. Most people don't seem to care about the lack of privatized fire fighting as it existed in ancient Rome.
In my business, almost all of my employees are low-skill. I pay everyone at least a living wage and it's impossible to ignore the realities of their lives. When I make more money, it goes to our savings. When I give an employee a raise, they buy something they need immediately, like a new car or new clothes.
In fact, due to fractional reserve banking, a multiple of the amount put into a savings account is loaned out and spent!
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-...
It's only in the middle case (which I think is the most rare of the three) where the share buyback money ends up as savings. (And even there, it's likely in government bonds, lowering the cost of government borrowing when done in aggregate.)
There are more complex analyses, but the above one gets the job done.
When “gains every quarter” are the goal and the measure of “gains” is finance, if you own all the valuable assets up for trade in the finance market...
But that’s ridiculous!
Humans are not and never will be rational actors. They carry their childhood memes with them for life via their brains. Offer some science that refutes it if you got it, but the functional processes of literal reality trump our conscious gut and that’s a well debated fact of human behavior.
The narrative has always been “protect inherited power.”
We see Tonight show hosts, religious true believers, true believers in capitalism, etc stand up to protect the “torch” they’ve been handed. Symbolism above all else.
Finance is another source of illusory power that we have a habit of blindly bestowing on others for emotional feels, before utilitarian value. Not saying that’s good or bad, it’s just what I find to be a reasonable summarization.
What a shock! Tim Cook and the rest aren’t investing in r&d. But their era was corporate micromanagement. Business of financial economy. Not nation state building and rivalry, which flooded the economy with public investment dollars via high taxation.
This is nonsense. Saving in a bank expands the bank's ability to lend. Saving in treasury bonds finances government operations. Saving in the stock market provides the incentive for VCs to invest in startups. Saving in municipal or corporate bonds finances the leveraged operations of those entities, contributing to better long-term planning. Saving in gold at least turns the money over to someone else who will probably spend it on something more useful than gold. For the most part, saving is investment. Only in niche scenarios does saved money leave the money supply.
Investment often results in money effectively leaving the economy as its multiplier rates are much lower than giving the money to consumers who spend it quickly, usually to small businesses that spend the money quickly.
Outside of niche scenarios, investment opportunities only exist when there is a desire to spend money on a product or service, but no money is available to spend.
> Investment often results in money effectively leaving the economy as its multiplier rates are much lower than giving the money to consumers who spend it quickly, usually to small businesses that spend the money quickly.
A lower velocity of money is not the same thing as a reduction in the money supply.
Increasing a bank's ability to lend doesn't mean they will necessarily do it; the reserve ratio is an upper bound.
Also, even when they do make a loan, it also doesn't mean it will necessarily go towards building or improving productive assets. Sometimes loans go towards buying existing assets (such as houses) in a way that might just result in asset inflation. (As in, for example, stock buybacks.)
The idea of a "global savings glut" is somewhat controversial but not obviously nonsense. We can't learn anything by defining it away.
Otherwise, buying existing assets (such as houses) will increase the price which will trigger increased production of that asset.
Traditional models of money supply were built around agricultural and industrial uses of the money supply, and it's not inherently clear that the current model is yielding anything other than higher asset prices.
And in that situation, it marginally increases the value of everyone else's dollar, increasing the value of their investments.
You can't save money without directly or indirectly investing in something (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saving_identity)
Haha, maybe 100 years ago when banking still worked like that this would be true. Nowadays bank deposits are probably almost entirely irrelevant for banks' lending capacity, as they just lever outstanding debt and whatever other non-transparent assets they can manage to slap a value on without breaking any laws.
Also, there is no mystery what happens with the wealth accumulated by the 0.1%. Piketty wrote an 800-page book about it. It's just moved abroad where it can not be taxed easily and mostly sits there idle to be passed on to next generations. One would have to be stuck very firmly in the Silicon Valley bubble to think much more than a tiny percentage of this wealth is used to be 're-invested in new enterprises'.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-...
Savings and investments are synonyms in this context. See, eg, the savings identity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saving_identity). When Joe Millionaire "saves" some money, he does so by investing it. That's what the word means.
> The problem with giving money to the wealthy is that it doesn't go to startups, it leaves the economy and increases a number on someone's terminal.
That's not how money or investment works.
> The best way to spur economic growth is to give money to people who will spend it quickly
Very possibly, but we're discussing who will invest it, not spend it, and as you note, the rich invest more of their income.
In particular, asset inflation (price of land or stock going up) doesn't increase productive capacity in any material sense.
And, that's what's worrying. How do we measure increase in productive capacity without assuming savings = investment? Also, the consumer price index doesn't measure inflation of assets owned by businesses. Are we assuming the market is efficient at pricing investments when it's actually just inflating?
It seems like this is something economists are likely to worry about. Is there a literature on this?
Correct. I think the definition of savings in economics is wrong. I would suggest that the distinction between savings and investment is in with how much difficulty you can reverse your decision (that is, liquidity of the underlying asset). The boundary is fuzzy, but it is important to consider.
So for instance, if I buy a new production line for cars, I cannot easily sell it (for the same price). I am hoping that it was a good decision, because it's hard to reverse (if I see tomorrow, that people actually don't want cars, I cannot easily start to make tractors). That is a decision which is investment.
On the other hand, if I buy shares in a car company, and tomorrow I see that people don't want cars, I can change my mind, sell the shares, and buy some other company. This is savings, not investment.
The reason why the reversibility is important is because if you are an economic actor and make an irreversible decision (like purchasing/building a production line), then other actors in the economy, who have savings, gain a certain advantage - they can react to your decision. They can follow, or they can avoid your investment, depending on how it pans out.
This follows it's not always wise to invest, to make an irreversible decision. Sometimes it's better to wait - and that is saving. Therefore the distinction between savings and investment is actually very important for even macroeconomics. If you have an economy where everybody is waiting for good opportunity (saving), then there is no economic growth. They still can "formally" be investing (buying shares or other financial instruments from each other), but the irreversible (i.e. real) decisions do not get made.
Right, you're talking about the velocity of money (https://www.aier.org/article/what-money-velocity-and-why-doe...) which I find a fascinating concept.
It does feel like money is pooling, because as corporations buy back their stock, there is also less stock for others to buy. Since a lot of retirement vehicles in America rely on buying stock, specifically the S&P500, this can really be tricky. Many companies have resisted going public, get bought out by private equity, etc. Private companies are very hard to invest in, requiring a certain amount of wealth and connections. But I think this is why we're in a huge easy VC money startup economy. The money is looking for a place to be invested, and as some analysts say, TINA - there is no alternative, that is, they need to be invested, but the price of assets they can purchase is getting worryingly high.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-04-09/where-...
Actually the relevant concept is the marginal utility of wealth:
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/12309/concepts/diminishin...
You are arguing that non-governmental investment/stimulus in the depths of a recession is a bad thing?
The problem I see is that the money almost exclusively goes to startups. In the last 10 years the startup scene in the US has been doing very well - not in terms of profits but in terms of funding. This giant "pool of money" created by the FED however mostly benefits just a small part of the workforce: Notably the engineers, scientists, managers, lawyers, investment bankers, etc. in the startup hotspots: In cities like SF, NYC, Seattle, Houston, etc. This is a problem for society because while wages for some parts of the workforce keep growing other workers are left with stagnating wages.
I don’t see how this can change unless the information gap between employers and employees is eliminated.
Or is there a different step in this “giving rich people more money means it finds its way to poor people” s/rich people/investors/ s/poor people/jobs/ ?
The term "trickle-down" originated as a joke by humorist Will Rogers and today is often used to criticize economic policies which favor the wealthy or privileged while being framed as good for the average citizen.
However, it goes on to say:
David Stockman, who as Ronald Reagan's budget director championed Reagan's tax cuts at first, later became critical of them and told journalist William Greider that "supply-side economics" is the trickle-down idea:
With a quote by David Stockman:
”It's kind of hard to sell 'trickle down,' so the supply-side formula was the only way to get a tax policy that was really 'trickle down.' Supply-side is 'trickle-down' theory.”
— David Stockman, The Atlantic
I’m sure the video touches on this, but do you have a summary for why it’s a straw man mischaracterisation?
Help rich entity; rich entity will help the rest of the economy?
Inequality is not as bad as it is made out to be. With our current level of automation for goods and services consumed by the masses, a high degree of equality would already result in mass unemployment since only so many people are needed to operate the highly automated production that would benefit an equal society.
Inequality on the other hand creates a LOT of diversity in demand for goods and services and this in turn drives a lot of job creation.
You need a LOT of people to build a $350 million yacht for example. If no one could afford something like that, it wouldn't be built and those jobs would no longer exist.
Furthermore, besides helping the economy via investments and spending on things that only they can afford, they also help in philanthropic ways that no government would be capable of helping:
https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/07/29/against-against-billio...
I guess that explains why I was confused by the parent comment.
I still do believe that giving money directly to social/governmental programs is more effective then giving it to the ultra-rich who may or may not have an incentive to spend it in a way that aligns with the country's interests, but that's a topic for another day.
Interesting way of shifting the burden of proof and reversing the null hypothesis but I will bite.
How about the non-partisan federal Congressional Research Service report?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/31/trump-tax...
Also from: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/gdp-report-trump-tax-...
>In May, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) found no sign that the Trump tax cuts made any discernible contribution to growth, wages, or business investment. Corporations did not plow their windfalls into exceptionally productive and innovative ventures. Instead, they mostly threw their handouts onto the giant pile of cash they were already sitting on, and/or returned it to their (predominantly rich) shareholders.
>Now, it appears that the CRS analysis may have actually been a bit too kind to Trump’s signature legislation. The federal government’s latest report on economic growth suggests that business investment has been even weaker than previously thought. Initially, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that America’s gross domestic product expanded by 3 percent in 2018 (on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis). This week, the BEA revised that figure down to 2.5 percent — due, in part, to decelerating growth in business investment.
>Meanwhile, in its initial estimate for the second quarter of this year, the BEA found that GDP grew by 2.1 percent, while business investment declined. Corporations haven’t been growing the economy by ramping up investments in its productive capacity (a.k.a. growing the economy’s “supply side”).
>Consumers and the federal government have been doing so by spending more money on goods and services (a.k.a. increasing aggregate demand)
>Bottom line on Q2 GDP: Business investment was terrible. It came in at -0.6%, the worst since early 2016.
Overpopulation is the foundation of human suffering and is driving us to extinction. There's is a clear negative correlation between educated women and population growth. How about setting up some scholarship funds?
When we run out of oil, there will be a second dark age. The metals required to make steel and electronics will basically become inaccessible when we cannot afford to power the machines which excavate and transport the material. Not to mention the famines which will ensue when we can't fuel the trucks that supply remote settlements like Los Angeles with food. How about building out the infrastructure required to transition away from fossil fuels?
The plankton provide 2/3 of the oxygen we breathe and our industries are currently making vast areas of the ocean completely uninhabitable for them. How about protecting the photosynthesizing life in the sea that we all need to survive?
I mean, the instructions are written on the wall, in big, bold, red capital letters. Only a fool would throw his or her hands in the air and say that there's nothing else to do.
I don't believe private investors decide they'd rather buy a yacht than invest their money just because a company bought back shares. More likely, the share buyback just moved money from a mature company to growth stocks or startups, which is exactly what should happen in a healthy economy.
Put another way...should Dinosaur Oil Inc use their profits to build another refinery even when they don't think it makes financial sense...or should they buy back stock, make their investors happy, and then be in a more vulnerable position when the investors turn around and fund Shiny Solar Inc?
If it is in the US, my intuition is that it wouldn't be very good.
Remember you are talking about denying a CEO the ability to decide whether to invest or not invest in additional production capacity and instead assigning this task to the government. The CEO has more information about his own company than the government, which means that the government is not capable of making this decision. The government is also insulated from the consequences of making the wrong decision, if a company loses revenue or even shuts down the government is not directly affected.
I elaborated a little on an alternative proposal for increasing investment at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20665196
I think the only thing similar to planned economy here is that you're shifting tax burden and resources invested from larger companies to smaller companies. The idea being that small companies are a beneficial resource because they contribute more directly and locally to their economies.
You could argue that this is a distortion but I think it's a long way from a planned economy.
The best way to spur economic growth is to give money to people who will spend it quickly whether rich or poor. In general, it turns out most very wealthy people have little incentive to spend money quickly. Instead, they save to hedge against and profit from recessions.
I really don't understand how people still push some version of trickle-down economics. Corporate buybacks are exactly this. Using taxpayer money to fund it only hurts the long term value of the economy.
Or is it like you use body language? Giving money for people to spend is done like this, while giving money for people to save is done like this.
Every time someone buys an investment, they're buying it from someone who is cashing out, quite possibly to buy a cheeseburger. It makes no sense to call this a "trickle", of course, because it's not a small fraction of the money.
"You're thinking of this place all wrong. As if I had the money back in a safe. The money's not here. Your money's in Joe's house...right next to yours. And in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Macklin's house, and a hundred others. Why, you're lending them the money to build, and then, they're going to pay it back to you as best they can. Now what are you going to do? Foreclose on them?"
The whole point of finance, the social purpose, is that it prevents everyone (rich or not so rich) with assets from letting them sit idle.
The whole point of finance is to maximize returns on investment. One strong strategy is to build liquidity before economic (or industry) downturns to cheaply acquire assets. This idleness happens at a much greater rate for the wealthy than the poor. And by poor, I mean the bottom 90% of society. They don't have the luxury of savings. This means it's of greater value to give them money because they spend it quickly . The economy doesn't grow when companies buy back stock, it grows when someone has enough money to pay for medical treatments or to buy a new car.
Of course it doesn't mean that investors/banks who receive the money reinvest it in the same country - if there is a dearth of opportunities in eg the US and Europe then this type of activity may result in increased investment in emerging markets.
This is plain incorrect. Spending on the value-less services and goods makes the economy as a whole poorer, and the more you spend the more you impoverish.
If these companies made a large one-time dividend, would that be preferable to share buybacks?
On one hand, we have tax treatment. Dividends produce revenue now; share buybacks, only on the disposal of the shares. On the other hand...I don't see another hand. Share buybacks should be specially taxed at the corporate level.
Either way, companies returning money to shareholders is preferable to pursuing boondoggles. (I'd argue 100% of the buyback tax revenue fund basic research, but we know that's presently politically unrealistic.)
The majority of investors would usually prefer to hold at a given point in time (or at least would prefer a choice of when to realise their gain), so unless the sum is so big that a buyback is not practical, it is usually preferable from an investor perspective as it lowers average friction costs.
In some jurisdictions buybacks may also be more tax efficient for some investors than special dividends (and this may be especially true for senior executives who make the decision on which to do), but that's not the case everywhere or for all investors (some may have a tax preference for dividends).
If a company buys back shares from an existing investor (EI), EI now has cash and is likely to either spend that money (if they're a retiree selling shares for income) or reinvest that cash into some other investment. It's very unlikely that they're going to keep that new money in cash or a savings account.
Or suppose they buy a painting from another billionaire for $20 million - did that really create any jobs or middle-class wealth?
You can argue against the tax implications of buybacks vs dividends but either corporations give profits back to investors or they will just have to continue to grow bigger and bigger, which I think the same people hate even more than buybacks.
But we live under capitalism so giving money to people is out of the question. Money is for billionaires and shareholders.
That borrowed billion doesn’t just then disappear into the ether. It gets reinvested.
But most people believed the current Administrations reasoning, which was that the tax cut would benefit them by stimulating the economy (eg trickle down economics), which to educated people was obvious BS.
All we can really say about the beliefs of Americans is captured by a recent CBS News Poll:
> Far fewer think the middle class (31 percent) and homeowners (25 percent) have been helped. More Americans think those groups have been hurt rather than helped by the new law.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2019-taxes-most-say-new-tax-law...
Companies can always sell more bonds or shares when they have a major investment coming, the stock / bond buybacks buy time, improve credit standing and create a cushion for that future investment event.
Of course it looks like a juicy burger even though you know full well that's not even remotely what you are going to get.
How would the tax cut pass if they didn't pass it off as a juicy burger full well knowing that they were going to give a microwaved burger instead.
Trickle down economics doesn't work.
If the companies borrow money and do nothing with it, they are not provoking scarcity of any kind, they are storing bits of a bank account still, doing nothing at all.
Yes, a lot of (especially the upper income segment) of the working class has some investments, particularly in retirement accounts; this doesn't mean they generally see the same income benefit as major capitalists from policies that boost investment yield.
Buybacks are the correct option for these companies, because otherwise they would be burning money on stupid projects or acquisitions. The money goes back to shareholders, via higher stock prices. They then need to put this somewhere, and many just buy more stock. Stock valuations rise(lowering expected returns), and this causes more sophisticated investors to leave the general public markets and look for opportunities elsewhere... resulting in the 'real investment' that you want. Large, established, public companies are NOT the right vehicle for this investment to happen through.
Also, you need to read through the fake news headlines a bit. The top 10 companies are responsible for a disproportionate amount of these buybacks. Smaller companies probably have ways to use the extra tax cut money. Apple may not have needed lower taxes, but pretending like all companies are in Apple's fortunate financial position, and hinging your argument on that is like arguing that lotties are the best use of money because you won the lottery.