Baseless gut-guess: Any move clearly associated to Satoshi, including use of any of the Bitcoin value, would receive such unrelenting scrutiny that there are only two likely outcomes.

A) Satoshi would be identified as a unique individual and any number of bad things would happen since they are such a high value target.

B) Satoshi would be identified as (effectively?) a pseudonym for one or more nation states and whatever value they derived from creating Bitcoin would evaporate.

Given we are currently in a superposition between states A and B, as well as a possible state C where the pseudonym Satoshi is either effectively dead (lost the credentials) or actually dead (end of life); one can infer that the value of Bitcoin continuing to exist as it is either outweighs any change of state or that such a change of state is no longer possible.

I have written one but haven't posted it for obvious reasons. In Satoshi's case, it's vexed by the problem that it depends heavily on what datasets you have access to. For example, the California IP leak reduces Satoshi's anonymity to perhaps 2 or 3 bits... but only if you know the location/identity of everyone in California and also where that IP was assigned to at that time.

It depends on how much data you have. When you have everyone's emails you can rank everyone by closest match and narrowing parameters.

Agree 100%. I'd believe that the DHS has identified Satoshi, but very very skeptical that they could use mass email collection to do it. Stylometry could work though if you limited your search to the set of people active on niche pre-Bitcoin lists/forums where Satoshi was likely to be active under a different name.

I remember a really impressive demo where someone found all the alt accounts of a HN user using stylometry: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17944484 The account didn't have that many comments on it (maybe ~1000 karma)

He also claims to have used the same algorithm for identifying company insiders for trades (see parent comment in that thread for context).

I don't think he was bullshitting even though his tool isn't public because he has a different NLP project that works reasonably well (https://hnprofile.com/ which can find users based on their interests).