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Comment by espeed | Hacker News Reader

You watching the news?

Is there something on that dragged your attention away from the fact that your earlier assertions about the US's continued dominance of semiconductor fab were incorrect?

You mapped out a trajectory you think things are going to follow. Things change. No more technology transfer. Protecting IP is the key to what happened yesterday.

Things do change. That doesn't make your specific prediction of what they will change into correct. Given that your previous assertions about the past and present were wrong, I doubt you are correct about the shape of the future.

Happy to bet on it, though.

You're referring to part of the process, I'm referring to the whole process -- i.e. full independent capability / self-sufficiency -- and currently China has zero capability to manufacture advanced chips independently [0] ...

  Huawei would love to source its chips and other components 
  purely from Chinese suppliers, but as of today it is unable 
  to do so ... There is no production line in China that uses 
  only equipment made in China, so it is very difficult to make 
  any chipsets without U.S. equipment.

[0] https://wccftech.com/china-is-still-multiple-generations-beh...

Malarky. By the same measure the US can't manufacture anything at all anymore because it can't source all the parts of any single supply chain from solely inside the US.

China has-- currently, not theoretically-- in country fab just a few years behind, and has been actively building plants at 10nm. We know they've already bought equipment for 7nm. So the idea that somehow the supply chain is holding them back is just wrong.

Not only that, but U.S. equipment doesn't lead here and hasn't for quite some time. Taiwanese equipment does. Are you really arguing that China does not and will not have access to Taiwanese Fab equipment? Because if so, you should know that TSMC is already moving fab to China.

We will see.

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