People will never line up for Android phones | Hacker News Reader

People will never line up for Android phones

engadget.com

138 pointsmcantelon88 comments

This is probably referencing John Gruber's quote from http://daringfireball.net/2010/12/emotional_rescue:

"There will never be an Android phone that people line up for like they did for Windows 95 — or like they do today, once or twice a year, for major new products from Apple."

I like Gruber. I think he does some great analysis sometimes. And he loves to call "gotcha" on other peoples' "claim chowder". But his love for Apple gets the better of him sometimes, and I doubt he will call himself on this.

Agreed on all points with the exception that Guber actually gets it more or less right on that one. Apple products do have a huge emotional appeal to it. The price for which is weirdly, both the cause and effect at the same time. Most people who buy Apple will continue to buy Apple (they are already buying products that are not cheap by any means, so cheaper Android phones won't do much to dampen that enthusiasm).

Fact is that most people won't line up to buy Android and certainly not as many as Apple fans. Does that mean Android won't sell - hell, no. It will only sell more.

Most of the complaints about Android from Apple fans seem to be on the lines of - "hey it is imperfect and a lesser phone but why does it still sell?" For the Android fan club it seems to be a case of itching to see Apple in trouble.

People seem to forget a very basic fact: it is just a phone :)

So the goalposts have moved from "won't line up for an Android phone" to "most people won't line up for an Android phone." Progress. Duly noted.

Let's not mince words. Gruber wasn't insisting that no human being would ever line up for an Android phone.

Hey, I am not setting any goalposts here. Also, using people-lining-up-at-stores as a metric is useful only as a measure of passion/lust you feel for the device/brand. Does not serve any other purpose, IMHO.

I am an Android user with a Galaxy GTI9000 and pretty happy with it. So it is not like I am batting for Apple either.

To summarize: Apple has a passionate user base, Android may not have an user base that is passionate to the same extent. In any case, long lines outside stores don't amount to much - the Palm Pre is a good pointer in that direction.

I'm not sure the original goalpost was at "nowhere in the world will even one single line be formed of people wanting to buy an Android phone".

I think it was at "people won't line up for an Android phone", which is a more general statement, which is still true. He's talking about things that tend to happen, not claiming that it will never EVER EVER EVER happen even ONCE.

Nobody's putting words into Gruber's mouth, he said "there will never be an Android phone that people line up for like they did for Windows 95". Taking it down a notch from there he meant "there will never be an Android phone that people feel extremely passionate about".

He's wrong on both counts already.

Which Android phone is people extremely passionate about?

I'm quite passionate about Android the platform. I love my incredible.

People lined up outside my local Sprint store to get the Evo 4G, but it was nowhere near what you would see at an Apple or AT&T store on iPhone release day. It's hard to measure passion for Android phones because on one hand there is the hardware, and the other is the Android platform. Aside from the Evo with a front-facing camera and 4G, or the Moment with a slide out keyboard, or the Droidx with a 4.5" screen, and a few other stand-outs, most Android phones are pretty vanilla hardware-wise. Android as a platform is great because it is free and open source, and has a lot of apps, but it is rough around the edges compared to iOS. It is easy to see why people are passionate about iPhone, because the hardware is amazing and the OS is polished. I love my Evo 4G, but I wouldn't love other Android phones like the Hero that are just generic Android phones.

That's because there are more Radioshack and Best Buys in a city than there are iPhones. I am pretty sure The Evo sold out for several day after launch.

Back when Windows95 was introduced, people around the world lined up in front of their local stores.

The Engadget story is about a line at one store, in one place in the world.

So no, this doesn't qualify as "an Android phone that people line up for like they did for Windows95".

Yep, but you cannot argue with pedants.

It's not just a phone, it's a classic case of people's need to separate themselves into groups (I am an x user, he is an y user) and then battle it out against those who pose a threat to our tribe, and to say negative things about those who are outsiders, while saying positive things about our fellow tribesmen.

It's the same thing that happens with football teams, rival schools, those who insist "in America, we speak English", etc.

Very true, I was just wishing it was otherwise. Both are fine platforms and miles away from the horror show mobile devices used to be half-a-decade ago.

In some cases, there is a legitimate worry about a market being 'winner take all', in which cases the positive network externalities will force even unwilling people onto a platform.

True, but that doesn't seem likely to happen now, unless someone writes a killer app and refuse to port it to the other platform.

I agree that it's not likely, as Apple seems basically happy with the market the way it is, rather than pursuing the market for cheaper phones. If they were everywhere, they might not have the same cachet...

and I doubt he will call himself on this.

He's not above admitting mistakes: http://www.google.com/search?q=site:daringfireball.net+%22i+...;

persuaded me that I was wrong

I was wrong (or at least myopic)

technically, I was wrong

raises the possibility that I was wrong

etc.

How is “persuaded me that I was wrong” anything other than an explicit admission of the other person’s correctness?

well, perhaps if Gruber wasn't of such a high opinion of himself he wouldn't need persuasion to convince him that sometimes he's wrong?

Let's assume that he doesn't say anything online he doesn't believe is true.

Let's also assume that anything he believes is true is because he has thought about it and is confident that he is correct.

Based on these two assumptions, why would he not need persuading that he is wrong?

Based on your assumptions, he is arrogant for making such a ridiculous prediction in the first place. He is pretending to know the buying preferences of millions of people along with the performance of every designer in the future that could make an android.

If it came out of anyone else's mouth but John Gruber, no one would care.

"If it came out of anyone else's mouth but John Gruber, no one would care."

And why is that, do you think? His predictions tend to come true.

It is that way because fanboys like you vote up everything that comes out of his blog.

His predictions also come true for things coming out of Apple since he is part of their target demographic. Making a claim about Android is out of his area of expertise.

Which of my assumptions makes him arrogant for doing anything?

I'm guessing the second one is what you mean.

Let's also assume that anything he believes is true is because he has thought about it and is confident that he is correct.

he is arrogant for making such a ridiculous prediction in the first place. He is pretending to know the buying preferences of millions of people along with the performance of every designer in the future that could make an android.

You suppose that to think about something (note here that I only said that he had thought about it, and considered himself to be right), and be confident in your own mind that you're right, you need to have perfect evidence on every variable. I disagree. On his blog, Gruber acts as a pundit, and that is expected of the material he writes, he's not presenting what he says as scientific fact.

Because unless he's God himself and has perfect information about everything it can't be possible that every SPECULATION he makes turns out to be true?

I'm not sure if there's anything to call Gruber on. Microsoft spent a pretty penny on the Win95 launch, as does Apple for their launches. Google and the hardware manufacturers who produce Android devices simply haven't run their launches the same way, and I don't see any reason for them to start.

Apple never paid for any hype or something else. Remember the days before iPhone 4 launched? Heck it was even on my local boulevard newspaper. And no Apple didn't pay anything for it.

I think people just care about what is coming next from Apple cause they are bringing amazing products. Each year when a new iPhone launches there is something no-one even thought about, how amazing this could be but Apple is just not thinking about it they are making it real and available.

To be honest I'm a happy Apple customer but I'm also a Android developer so I know both sides and both platforms well.

Apple never paid for marketing?

Have you never seen an Apple iPhone commercial. Between that and the iPad, they seem to be about 1 out of every three commercials that were on leading up to the launch of those products.

Not sure why you're getting down voted, as we seem to be of the same mind re: Apple's value. When it comes to my day-to-day utility of the device, I still find my iPhone 3GS unsurpassed (although I carry around an EVO for tethering & a Nexus S since launch to give Gingerbread a fair side-by-side with iOS4).

That said, while no one doubts Apple's mastery of getting free press is quite impressive (Jobs sitting on Disney's board might help; having been CEO of Pixar, as well), I imagine Apple still spends a lot of money on their product announcement events compared to Google, and much (much!) more for branding (e.g. product placement: Google it for examples, they're impressive).

That's exactly what I wanted to say: Apple is getting so much free press others can't even think of getting. Re-reading my comment I can understand why people down voted me but I just want to talk about a example how Apple is getting free press like it was on the iPhone 4 which was found by Gizmodo before it was launched.

Engadget had leaked photos from Google Nexus 2 too but did it show up in my local boulevard newspaper? No. That's what I'm trying to say. People care about what Apple is coming up with. I don't say this cause I think it's a good or I'm a fanboy, no I'm saying this cause it is a fact.

I think the real news here is there is a growing middle-class of consumers in China that can also afford $400 luxury devices.

I'm more worried about their (less regulated) growing car purchases but it's still something to consider as we compete for resources (and jobs).

Sure, that was real news 10 years ago.

It was america that taught people in India/China to drive inefficient Hummers and It was america that taught India/China to buy one car per family member. There are many trends like the Iphone rush which is teaching people in India/China to be materialistic even though it is harming their environment. These trends were set by america. Americans cannot stop anyone from buying anything now.

I don't buy that explanation. Who taught the U.S. to drive one Hummer per person? Isn't it more likely that whatever caused the U.S. to consume in this way is also responsible for the emerging consumer classes in newly-wealthy nations like China and India?

It's true that in some poorer countries there is a cachet specifically to American things (that cost a lot more than an ordinary person can afford).

China and India were economically nowhere some in 1950. They had to take whatever investment was coming in from other countries. So whatever the USA sold to India/China. they had no choice to take it whether it was beneficial to the environment/people in the long term or not.

And I think Americans opted for bigger cars was purely due to non availability and zero motivation of efficiency in Life in General.USA has lots of land, it has sources to get cheap oil (or it creates them). So there might have been a neglect towards efficiency.

The amount of resources at our disposal is not fixed, nor are the number of jobs.

I don't compete with the Chinese for a job, I create my own. Also, Americans don't compete with Chinese for jobs, 1 individual person competes with 7 billion other people for jobs.

China v. America is just a way to convince people that jingoistic nationalist policies are a good idea.

I am barely educated on this issue but what you are saying seems counterintuitive.

Oil resources are fairly fixed (for plastics and fuel) while China just makes contracts for more and causes our prices to rise for fuel.

The majority of jobs in the USA would appear to be service based for our own consumption while the majority in China seem to be manufacturing for consumption in the USA and elsewhere.

We restrict commerce to Cuba but have an overflow of goods coming mostly from China, to the point where they own most of our debt.

Why didn't we build up Mexico as the manufacturing capitol of the world so at least our continent would benefit from the stability the jobs would create?

I am not "anti" China, just saying we are still asleep at the wheel about their world economic power and their rising middle class is the cherry on top.

The amount of oil resources is fixed upon a price point and technology level. At $1000 a barrel there is a lot more oil in the world than at $5. With improved recovery systems there is more oil in each well, etc. With 17KM drills there is still more oil. At $140 per barrel there is more oil in Alberta than in Saudi Arabia. Oil reserves are proved out at a given price point. Exxon will not look for oil that can be extracted at $250 per barrel because that price point is not on the near term horizon. I personally doubt we'll ever hit an inflation adjusted $250 per barrel because of the substitutes available at that price point.

Android's problem is that it has no problem...

         People Who Buy Cell Phones   

   |                            
   |                . .    
   |               .   .
   |              .     .      
   |            .         .     
   |          .             .   
   |        .                 .     
   |     .                       . 
   | .      |                  |    .   
   |________|__________________|__________
     Those  |    The great     |  Idiots 
      who   |  masses who buy  | who stand
     don't  |    what their    | on line
      buy   |  friends bought  | all nite

Exactly. Everyone I know who isn't a tech-head has a droid. Every tech-head I know who isn't a mac user has a droid.

I have a mac at home and I have a droid.

A careful reading of my comment will reveal that that does not contradict what I said :)

I live in the Bay Area and are spending a few weeks in DC.

We always hear that Android is for geeks but based on what I've seen from people in DC, it's not.

Among my friends in DC who has Android: dentist, doctor, accountant, sales manager. None of them are geeks.

This is the problem with tech blogs from Silicon Valley and people from area in general. We make conclusions based on what's happening in the Bay Area but we are very different from the rest of the US and the world.

We live in a bubble.

Most normal people aren't going to switch carriers for a phone. And most people aren't on AT&T. It's pretty much Android or the free flip phone.

Or BlackBerry.

Shouldn't that be a bar graph?

In ASCII? Really?

Uh, in OpenGL too, if you wish.

Chinese here. To be honest, it's a very smart marketing strategy for Meizu. Lots of people preorder M9 phones months earlier, and Meizu just calls everyone that their phone is available on a particuliar day, so there are tons of people line up on Meizu M9 launch day.

I guess there might be a social aspect to it, but it's absurd to stand on line to purchase a commodity piece of hardware.

Unless you're going to resell it for a profit, which is quite common in China.

I suspect it's largely a carry-over from the excitement of camping out for movies or game releases of yesteryear, which was 10% impatience and 90% friends & palatable excitement.

I'd say there's probably a bit of patriotism at work here.

Looks as close to an iPhone as possible, as with most other Meizu products:

http://www.engadget.com/2010/12/15/meizu-m9-christens-site-l...

Combine the fact that these are probably being sold exclusively through those 2 first party stores, it being a holiday, and that there's a thriving resale market (people buying the maximum number of phones they can, then turning them around on the internet), I'm not surprised.

Edit: People even line up for bags of all the extra overstock junk they throw in bags at Apple's stores in japan:

http://www.tuaw.com/2011/01/01/apple-lovers-in-japan-camp-ou...

Not comparable, IMHO.

Can't you just accept that it is in fact, somewhat comparable? I mean, you just compared it yourself.

Different standards here in China - people were literally fighting with the Apple store employees when the iPhone 4 came out

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-store-in-china-shuts-do...

Getting a few thousand people to line up in a country of 1.3 billion doesn't seem all that impressive to me, actually.

Agreed. Two stores, 60 people at 6AM at each? Compare to the lines at every Apple store for a major launch (300+ for the iPhone 4 at the local store), or for any video game console launch at nearly every retailer that sells them in the entire US (usually 30-100 in front of every BestBuy/Walmart/etc.). No comparison.

From the pics it looks like there were much more than 60 people though.

Thats why you hire a good photographer and claim huge lines from places where your readers aren't in order to claim people are lining up for something that you could download off the internet.

Actually lots of people lining up on the early morning (or the night before) just to get the latest and greatest gizmo ever impress me a lot. Negatively, that is.

People shouldn't have to line up for any phone. I own an iphone but I'd never line up for it.

It's probably got more to do with the excitement of getting something "new", which for some people represents "fun".

That's why people lined up for Wiis, XBoxes and Kinects.

Well, what can I say, it turns out people like lining up.

And gullible people were never in short supply.

I don't understand these people (nor people who line up for an iPhone). I wouldn't line up like that even if they were distributing admission tickets to 'heaven'.

I don't understand people who upvote comments like this.

"Yes, please encourage more comments saying "I don't understand X". Not understanding things is praiseworthy and deserves upvotes. So is an attitude of being dismissive and superior based on said not understanding".

so, me not understanding stupid people who line up to buy a stupid phone: not praiseworthy.

you not understanding my comment or those who up-vote it: praiseworthy. Please explain :)

Please explain

But I don't think you are "not understanding" anything. You know damn well people line up for new phones because they are excited about them and want to be the first in their group of friends to own one, or want to get them on eBay while there's leverage of scarcity. You are not expressing confusion and puzzlement, or asking anything, you are only posting to signal that you are better than the people who line up for phones, and people are upvoting you in shared feelings of superiority.

My comment is also a similar lie - I do understand yours really, but I was mimicking your comment style.

Can the reason also be lack of forced obsolescence?

I have a HTC Magic (also known in the US as a Mytouch 3G). It is a first generation Android phone. I thought about upgrading recently and was beginning to look around.

What I did instead was to download the latest version of Cyanogenmod (and contribute some of the money saved to the project). I can actually say that I am putting off upgrading for the second half of 2011.

Has the Android space become synonymous with Windows XP ? Because I now see people upgrade phones to play Angry Birds (which I cant on my phone).

IMHO, a large upgrade happened in the PC world around the time Doom3 and Half Life 2 were released - so instead of people lining up for Android phones, they instead line up (figuratively) for the next killer game ... it would still be a solid reflection of the platform.

Want more people in your nightclub? Make them queue...

I suspect that they're lining up to see Jack Wong. I hadn't heard the name before, but it seems he's a bit of a draw all by himself:

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/how-the-eni...

   "Every time (Wong) makes a comment on his 
    company's online forums, there's this groundswell 
    of pandemonium around those posts."

so perhaps it's not so much the phone that they're going to buy...?

It makes sense that people would not line up for Android phones and would for iPhones. There is only one iPhone, and a new one only comes once every 12 or 18 months. There are 100 Android phones, and a new one comes every month. The suspense and excitement just isn't the same.

We got this back in August for the Galaxy S in Toronto:

http://mobilesyrup.com/2010/08/06/samsung-galaxy-s-vibrant-a...

Are people lining up because it's Android or because it's Meizu? It may likely be that Meizu built their brand enough to cause the lines, not Google's Android.

Because Android users are smarter?

Oh, sarcasm. That's original.

And why do we care? Yes, a lot of yuppies go out and buy iPhone 4s so that they can be cool. They'll never install more than 3 applications, will pay out their ass for texting and will be perfectly happy flashing their iPhone to their friends. Meanwhile, 4 more Android phones are activated without any excitement, where the respective user also probably never installs a wide range of apps and pays the carrier's exhuberant SMS fee.

Is Gruber suggesting, or am I supposed to buy the notion that the emotional appeal of a product is some sort of important measurement? Who's activating more phones, who's making the revenue.

I'll never stand in line for an Android phone, I won't even stay up late to press "Buy" on when the purchase link goes live for the HTC Thunderbolt. It will still be there and will ship at the same time if I order it at 8am.

I think his suggestion is that the Apple experience is so much better that it is worth forming emotional attachment with the company, and that this is something Android will never be able to provide.

I'm indicting the linkage between the "Apple experience" and launch day lines. I don't think the launch day lines are made up of the people who really want the iPhone experience versus the iPhone brand image.

Emm, this is China. There are lines 2 times like these for the salad bar stand at most restaurants.

check china news..they are in fact lining up for Android in China..Gruber is wrong as usual..

There are 12 news reports this morning in Google News..about Chinese lining up for android devices..

Android phones are draining battery very quickly.

As does any device with a large screen, reasonably fast processor, and tiny form factor. There's only so much room available for a battery.

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