There isn't really much of a tablet market
marco.org
marco.org
"Neither Google nor Microsoft will ever be able to tailor their software to other manufacturers’ specific (and varied) hardware devices as well as Apple can (and does) with theirs."
Really? Marco Arment can predict the future? Do we lose all hope that people will do anything better than Apple? Even in Marco's little part of the world it sounds outrageously short sighted. You can say what you want against everything non-Apple and that would of course be your opinion (as opposed to universally accepted truth) - but this is going too far, even for Marco Arment class of people.
He goes preaching about Apple's integrated experience, "superior everything" and ponies - but you know what the whole world is not buying the iPad universally - Samsung sold a million Galaxy Tabs, Androids are already outselling Apple worldwide and reason for that is not that the people buying them are stupid - people just have different needs and tastes. Banging on the "teh superior AAPL drum" with a sad tune of everyone else's suckiness for ever is not going to change that.
I've not had a chance to play with one myself (though I've held one in my hand, turned off) but since some (but not all) of the early reviews were particularly scathing, this seems a bit odd to me.
I think the possibilities are a) Android fanboys lying about the Tab and how good it is b) Apple fanboys lying about the Tab and how bad it is, c) that, for some people, with certain needs the Galaxy Tab is already better than Apple's iPad, due to size, weight, hotspot capabilities, built in cameras, network availability or whatever and that the things that Arment and Gruber value aren't universal values.
Bottom line my take is that it is a good device in its own right and the price over iPad is at least somewhat justified given the additions of 2 cameras, more RAM, SD Card, better GPU etc. and the 7" size is definitely a good one.
I know how you feel.
And the most annoying thing is how they always come out right: first the renaissance of Apple and the Mac, the iPod, then iTunes, then the iPhone, then the App Store now the iPad.
All of these getting great sales, redefining industry, and gathering higher market share, while tens of competitors sink or at best manage to offer knock-offs a couple of years later.
Why don't Gruber and company write more like enlightened pundits like Paul Thurrot, Rob Enderle and John Dvorak?
Oh yeah and market share is not the success criteria - I know that as well. What I "feel" is the criteria.
Yes. In the portable music and mobile market it has tried to compete with Apple and closed shop many times --only in MS case it is called "canceled a project" or "closed a department".
As for the OS/API space, it has slided into irrelevance. Do you really need me to bring out the big guns and quote Paul Graham on this one?
"""Android is not selling at all"""
You seemed to have missed the "manage to offer knock-offs a couple of years later", part.
"""Amazon hasn't continued to gain more music selling share"""
You seemed to have missed the "manage to offer knock-offs a couple of years later", part.
"""no one is buying Kindles as there is the iPad"""
The two are not really in the same market. The Kindle is an ebook reader. The iPad is a tablet computing platform with ebook reading capability thrown in. There is a Kindle app FOR the iPad, for heaven's sake.
"""And Adobe was going to be in serious trouble too"""
With regards to Flash dominance in the future of the web (the only relevant metric, i.e. pertaining to Apple, in this discussion)? You betsa.
No, you sure didn't.
> Will it help if I admitted that Apple invented sliced bread?
It sure would. That kind of "irony" would place you firmly in the delusional group thinking there are "Apple fanboys" and that you and them are at war. You reeealllly think I think somewhat like that, huh?
> We agree that you are convinced of everything you said and we also agree not to investigate anything objectively
I never agreed to the second --but you seem hell bent on it. Notice how beside ad hominens you don't provide any arguments in this "reply"?
I provided my arguments in my original reply. You then switched to saying Gruber and Arment are always right. I then asked you the definition of right you and me can accept. You did not give one explicitly but it sounded like your definition of right was "whatever Apple does and whatever I perceive" - just like Gruber and Arment. Which to me isn't objective. So I did the next logical thing - agreed that you agree to your convictions about Apple.
It's hard to argue with people who invariably talk only positively and mostly subjectively (it just 'feels' right) about even somewhat complex subjects which require actually defining things, having a lack of bias and use of analytical skills.
For the Apple camp - the simplistic rule is "What Apple does is right - if what they do changes, so does what is right". So for example when Apple gets market share - market share is the king and when they start losing it, suddenly that is no longer worth discussing - profits are. Shifting goal posts. You don't hear the Apple fans complain about anything Apple - the ridiculous positioning of USB ports on MBP for e.g. - for a company and its fans that pride themselves with superior usability - this apparently is no problem at all. That's biased and you can't really argue with biased people other than to say - ok, to you your own.
That is not to say Apple hasn't done great things - but it is also non-sensical to say everything they have done is right and everything anyone else is doing and will do in future will end up being crap - that's essentially what Arment says in that post. And you will get no further discussion from me if that's what you want to subscribe to.
Now I don't want to start some 'Android vs iOS' discussion, buy whatever product suits your taste - thats your choice, but I do think its a little bit hasty to write off tablets from other manufacturers at this moment in time. Perhaps I've misunderstood and he is only talking about the present - but it seems like the author thinks there will never be a serious competitor.
[0] http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9199678/Update_Galaxy...
However, in a few years or so, I can totally see casual users ditching their (in their eyes) complicated PCs and netbooks in favor of a tablet of some kind, as long as it does what they want (watch a video, send email, go on Facebook, listen to music, play a game, etc).
A market of 10 people is not much of a market at all.
All Android tablets I tried felt like upscaled phones, they use more or less the same phone UI on a bigger screen. That’s just unattractive, why carry around that huge device when using a phone is approximately as comfortable? Tablets have to be more comfortable to use than phones. iOS makes better use of the additional real estate and using it is more fun than using a phone. It’s not just a huge iPod touch.
Yes, it is. The only difference you're seeing is that developers for iOS apps have accommodated for the additional screen real estate after its release. Developers of Android apps haven't yet because the OS isn't officially ready for tablets until Honeycomb. Once an official Android tablet is released post-Honeycomb can you actually start to make comparisons.
I disagree that you can't compare an iPad to a Galaxy Tab. Of course you can. They are both tablets. If Android 'isn't ready' ready for tablets then they shouldn't be selling them. But they are. Which means you can make comparisons and draw conclusions about iOS vs Android in regards to tablets.
Android is an open-source operating system for smartphones. Some manufacturers have taken this smartphone OS and released tablets using it, and you're certainly free to compare them with the iPad. Any such comparison is likely to demonstrate that Apple did well in getting a usable tablet to market well before the competition, but it's fairly pointless to a discussion of the future of the tablet market, however.
Within the next 2-3 months, Android 2.4 (or maybe 3.0; codenamed Honeycomb, in any case) will be released, and at that point it will be an OS designed for both smartphones AND tablets. We're expecting to find out more about this version of Android (and the Motorola tablet Google engineers are designing it for, possibly called the XOOM) at CES in a few days. What little we know so far makes it look that high-end Android tablets will be very competitive with the iPad once a version of Android exists that is designed for tablets.
In summary: kudos to Apple for getting to market first, but things are about to get interesting once we can compare Android-for-tablets with iOS-for-tablets.
I’m not sure how you then arrive at the conclusion that the iPad is just a huge iPod touch. Its apps have a different UI, making use of the larger screen (as you said), so it is different, at least in that respect (and I wasn’t claiming anything more).
*edit: native support for native interfaces doesn't make any sense:)
(This is not to say I only like Apple things. I think that Windows Phone 7 has the best and most consistent UI/UX of them all, currently, and webOS is quite nice as well.)
You might be getting upvoted because the HackerNews hivemind has a giant hard-on for all things Apple, but don't think for a second that you're actually making a valid point. If you want to start an intelligent discussion then go right ahead, but keep the obvious fanboy flamebait out of this.
Relative to iOS there is a much, much higher ratio of shitty apps to killer apps.
It is too customizable in that non-technical users have a hard time with many features (my girlfriend had no idea how to install, setup or in any way manage widgets, and she is by no means whatsoever computer stupid.). The install procedure for NoLED is a great example of Android's failure to be 'good software' IMO.
The devices are various and the vast majority are poorly designed. Battery life, shitty button placement, etc. Yes this is not a software issue but Google allows the software to be licensed to shitty hardware, so they are ultimately culpable.
Android allows vendors to include their own forced, uninstallalble software. This is complete bullshit.
You are able to install apps that just don't work due to a lack of curation, fragmentation of hardware, and multiple, conflicting app stores.
Also, i would argue that your comment is more flame bait than mine was.
Long-presses are a key interactive element of the Android system. The fact that your girlfriend didn't know about it is no more the fault of Google than Apple's for people who don't know that you can swipe with multiple fingers as actions on iOS.
You're locked into one device. You can't have a physical keyboard with it, you can't use it on any other carrier, it has the same battery life as Android phones, which ends up becoming worse battery life since you can't carry an extra around with you on long trips. There's no cheaper models either. If you're outside of the US you basically have to dump an entire paycheck or two in order to purchase one.
You're forced to spend thousands of dollars on more Mac equipment if you want to develop for iOS. You're forced to use iTunes to sync to it. You're forced to continue to pay Apple a subscription if you want your app to still be available for sale. Developers can sink tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in equipment and employee time into developing an app that will just end up being rejected from the App Store. This is complete bullshit.
There is no real notification system. An alert box that you have to immediately react to is horrible UI design. You can't glance to see notifications in summary, and theres no indication that an app needs your attention after the initial alert box unless you happen to browse to its shortcut. And even then the quantity badge does nothing to inform you of what kind of notification it is. It lumps everything into a vague, undefinable number that could mean any combination of things.
There's no ecosystem nurturing inter-app communication, which is a nasty bi-product of their half-baked multi-tasking implementation. On Android apps can hook into actions menus that are used by other apps. I can attach media from other apps or send data to be used or edited by another app instantly. This doesn't exist on iOS at all.
I can keep going if you'd like. Or you can admit that both products are good on their own merit and at this point it's just a matter of nitpicking and personal taste.
Apple definitely took more time polishing the edges of iOS than Google did with Android. Game creation is also a bit lacking with regards to features that developers have access to. That's really the only criticism I can make towards Android having used and developed for both extensively. My list towards iOS on the other hand is much lengthier.
The first (a MyTouch 3G) was mediocre software marred by lackluster and underperforming hardware.
The second (the T-Mobile version of the Galaxy S) was fairly nice hardware marred by really shitty software (I blame the completely non-functional GPS on the software, as Samsung alleges that it can fix it with a software update).
From my perspective, there is one thing Android does better than iOS (notifications), a bunch of things that are approximately equal, and a bunch of things that are terrible.
I'm sure Google can make polished and smooth experiences -- just look at Chrome for a great example -- they just haven't done so yet with Android. (Another issue is the embarrassing lack of actual upgrades (likely due to the sheer number of devices) on Android: any improvements won't help if I'm locked into a 2-year contract on a device they won't update.)
I believe you're right about the desktop in the office though. The fact that XP is still commonplace in offices goes to show the staying power of the form factor in that setting. I mean, the design of most cubicle farms alone is more suited for desktops than tablets.
What does seem quite plausible is tablet + peripherals - the tablet basically assuming the role of the old mini-tower computer, angled upright on a stand for desktop use, with keyboard and mouse hanging off it. (In fact if you also hung a monitor off it there's no reason you couldn't do that with a regular phone.) I think tablet + dock + keyboard may well become a popular home computer setup in the next few years.
Almost all of my email is sent from my iPad, and I write a lot of email. I send vastly more email from iOS than OSX/XP/W7. I use all four operating systems between my personal and work machines, and prefer iOS for almost all tasks.
Touchscreen typing is weird at first, but, just like using a physical keyboard you start slow and eventually become proficient and comfortable.
I'm not seeing why a tablet is so massively better than a netbook/laptop.
A tablet is just irritating because it cant stand up on its own.
I don't see it going mainstream, or replacing laptops.
I'm not gonna hold a tablet in my hands while I try and use it.
(I spend the vast majority of my time sat on a sofa with a laptop).
Would like to see some data backing up the author's claims.
From what I can tell, the Nook runs a customized version of Android. The most important customizations are the home screen (the desktop that can only show Nook books purchased from BN), the overall UI, and the fact that you can't install apps on it without rooting it.
Samsung's Galaxy Tab has sold well over 1 million this past quarter thus far. The Android OS also does not officially support Tablets until the upcoming Honeycomb release.
By that comparison there isn't a PC market either. Macs certainly aren't even close to selling at a rate of one-third of the Windows machines right now.
Tablets could become nearly magical in less than a decade.