Some recession indicators
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Maybe in two to six years... I even wouldn't be surprised if trump gets reelected, does everything to "rescue" the economy (while more and more people suffer on a personal level) and when he leaves... Bang... It's the fault of the next guy!
If I was KGB and had deep tentacles into elected officials I'd spread rumors about how the the CIA/FBI/etc. were trying to overthrow the government, other conspiracies, etc.
> As it appears now, many want the country to move in a leftwards direction
If by many then you mean "many voters" then yes. Most of the dyed-in-the-wool alphabet soup / military types, the same ones who would be deep state material, are pretty ardent republicans. Mueller, for example, is a lifelong republican who was a Marine Corps officer in Vietnam -- solid freemarket GOP type.
If a recession, or an even greater economic downturn, is inevitable it would seem to me that the Fed could either delay the inevitable, or quicken it. The Fed is supposed to be politically independent, but politicians present and past have tried to influence and pressure them. In a notable instance, LBJ physically threatened the then Fed chairman - probably a little worse than how Trump tries to influence today (mean-spirited tweets mostly). Of course, no Fed chairman will admit they changed course due to political pressure, but we'll probably never know if that's completely true:
https://mises.org/wire/when-lbj-assaulted-fed-chairman
I understand that many 'deep state' actors are Republicans - I believe your implication is that, because they are Republicans, they would oppose popular policy proposals from Democrats like Medicare-for-All, Free Higher Education, and certainly sweeping proposals like the Green New Deal. But is that true? I think there's a real possibility that many of these Republicans are more loyal to statism than they are to any concrete political ideology.
It seems that any time a government is formed, it becomes an entity that continues to grow and continues to spend, some faster than others. The establishment of fiat money systems probably accelerates the pace of this pattern as there's more room to be fiscally irresponsible or to simply pass the burden along to the next generation. The national debt of the US is evidence of this - regardless of whether it's a Dem or Republican in the Oval Office, spending continues and so do military misadventures. It's easier to paint the Dems as the 'statist' party as their proposals typically involve government intervention, but I think the question needs to be asked: when's the last time a conservative president 'conserved' something?
It sounds like those books: you can make million in a year! Hear is my secret!
Yeah, uuhhhh why aren't you doing it?
1. Corporations took on mountains of low interest debt to fuel stock buy-backs. This "made sense" because earnings growth readily outpaced interest on the loans.
2. Investors took out mountains of low interest debt to fuel stock purchases. This "made sense" because earnings growth readily outpaced interest on the loans.
We are in a dangerous compound leverage situation. The moment growth looks to have subsided, investors are going to deleverage en masse, causing a cascade of sales and stock price plunges. Companies will no longer be able to pay the mortgages on their buy-back bonds, and will make cuts, which will just make the bleeding worse. Cue massive corporate bankruptcies and bailouts.
I have a thesis that interest rates and rate of growth will trend towards each other over the long term. Investors assume that the market will always return ~7%, which I think it has only done because long term interest rates were a little under ~7%. The next collapse may drag long-term growth down to the ~3% range, which will be doubly-bad for companies paying bonds with interest rates near that.
Do we blame the person or the incentive system?
That being said, the world is entering a recession, and the USA cannot hide from that forever. It will catch up (or down) to it in a year or two.
It was more about how we don’t know what will cause this next recession.
https://web.archive.org/web/20190729034729/https://www.nytim...
Expect alarming headlines on any number of topics. The economy, especially.
Keep calm and carry on. If at all possible, remember which publications posted alarming headlines of which types. It'll help you identify their inclinations.