Tim Bray: Year-end View of the Mobile Market
tbray.org
tbray.org
T-mobile appears to be doing exactly that. You can get a contract with a subsidy, you can get financing on the phone and cheaper monthly service, or you can buy the phone outright and get cheaper monthly service.
Every spot in the US will be covered by 4 (5 is they ever find a buyer for the D block) licenses. In some locations, one carrier already has 2 of the licenses (e.g. VZW). I still see room for competitive behavior.
Which is to say, it would be sort of surprising, but not that much, if this time next year, dirt-cheap iPhones were competing against Androids that push the user-experience lever farther than Apple or anyone else ever has.
I keep hearing this argument that Google simply has to assemble a crack team of UI experts and they'll inevitably match or surpass Apple's offerings.
Presumably Apple will equally at some point assemble a search rock-star team and push the search level farther than Google or anyone else ever has.
Android is already matching iOS in many areas, exceeding it in some (a superior, and more functional, notification system, and a much better messaging system, though that is subjective). With each iteration it keeps improving and improving, not by changing actual function but mostly just by decorating in a manner that iPhone users are more accustomed.