Isn't this why we run simulations and calculate odds? The world is surprising. Still, if you stick to the odds and something breaks, maybe your model really needs tweaking. We have, wisely, gone back and changed thousands of formal models in fields from physics to economics to social science for this reason: We don't want to make that mistake again. And in many of those cases we didn't make that particular mistake again.

So it seems like while it's worth understanding that the world is surprising, this doesn't diminish the value of fixing a broken model or preparing better next time.