I believe we have run up to scenario where we must again reevaluate our laws to protect society from bad/harmful trends from large singular actors. They may not intend it to be harmful, but the fact is, it could be.
"[..] a massive and untested leap of logic." Google advertising is that massive and very well tested leap in logic. As for potential ISIS members, if you recall it, then you know that they were not only targeting just fighters they were also targeting ISIS brides and sympathizers. Any counter intelligence expert, or you can just read the manual on counter intelligence readily available to the public [https://publicintelligence.net/us-army-counterintelligence/], will tell you that terrorist or guerrilla support networks are just as important and damaging as the actual fighters, hearts and minds they say. They provide intel, monetary support, propaganda support, non combatant support like supply runs, etc. So you can be a member without being a fighter and still be vital.
Also when you talk about conversion rate, you're not talking about who clicked the ad. You are talking about who "bought" or "interacted" with a product after clicking. So you are gauging real activity from people who are clicking and looking at your stuff. 500k minutes of video watched. On average about 2 minutes I believe. That's a huge amount of interaction. You can barely get an invested mobile game player to watch 15 seconds for rewarded things they can actually use.
You claim untested and unproven with no evidence a lot, but the results are right here: [https://redirectmethod.org/pilot/#results]. They showed remarkably different results. Twice as good actually, in the targeted approach. So I don't know what to tell you. There is evidence, there are experiments, and there are real tangible results and effects on the public. The only question in my mind is at what scale do we allow that.