> The conclusion: climate has already increased the risk of armed conflict, but the effect is small relative to the effects of other factors such as unexpected economic events and scarcity of natural resources such as food.

The risk posed by climate change is that it will majorly disrupt economies and access to food and water. (Think widespread drought and famine). I find it strange that these experts draw a distinction between these factors.

The article didn't claim it was a large factor.

It's hardly a consensus. There is plenty of research suggesting climate change has been a factor in conflicts even now, such as in the Syrian civil war:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-0005...

The Pentagon also has reports on climate change as national security risk.