I don't know if carbon will win or not. Right now, carbon is in a race with renewable energy sources (wind, solar, + storage), and their costs are plummeting while fossil gets more and more expensive. We're already at the tipping point where it's cheaper to build out wind/solar than to build fossil power plants, and it's
much cheaper to fuel a car with electricity than gasoline over its lifetime.
The population thing is already on a trajectory toward leveling. The main cause of population growth now isn't birth rate, but rather increased lifespans of those born two or three generations ago. If we convert to a renewable energy base before population levels off, we win.