Income Inequality and the 'Superstar Effect'
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Quants had a similar compensation scheme for quite a while now. I think other classes programmers are going to hit on it, too: there are many things you can do which demonstrably improve revenues or cut costs and which scale to the moon.
Can I again toot the horn for A/B testing, metrics, etc etc? My homework for tomorrow is writing a consulting proposal. They want to know how much purchasing my services stands to make them. Consider a hypothetical company with 9 figures of revenue a year which does no A/B testing. Pick a number for what you think you could do for a first cut of conversion optimization. 2%? 5%? 10%? Do the multiplication.
You can create staggering amounts of wealth these days with programming and a few other tricks, and you can capture quite a bit of it.
[Edited to add: PG link: http://www.paulgraham.com/wealth.html My favorite essay of his, incidentally.
The relevant bit: To get rich you need to get yourself in a situation with two things, measurement and leverage. You need to be in a position where your performance can be measured, or there is no way to get paid more by doing more. And you have to have leverage, in the sense that the decisions you make have a big effect.]
Changes in the tax code are important to consider. As a thought experiment, imagine if the top income tax rate was still 91%. (During the 30s, 40s, 50s and early 60s, it was 91% on income over $100,000, about a $1 million in today's money.) How many stars would ask for income in excess of $1 million if they knew it would be taxed at 91%? They would probably instead ask for various perks, which was the trend in the US during the mid-20th century. Asking for perks instead of cash remains the trend in those nations with strongly progressive tax rates, for instance, Sweden.
I did a double-take here, because it sounds fairly obvious to me: monopsonies can get away with paying you next-to-nothing because your best alternative to "next-to-nothing" is "nothing". If there are only a few radio networks (and/or they have a gentlemen's agreement with respect to hiring talent), then regardless of skill the commercial value of your ability is zero unless you sign with them. Rush Limbaugh would be making $20k a year if there was only one radio station in town. There are now 50 and the one that gets to sign him makes a substantial amount of money. (He tapped an unlikely niche market for news and opinion: half the country.) The market now favors him rather than favoring them.
Edited to add: By the way, it appears that Google et al have a gentleman's agreement with respect to hiring talent.
He says:
Making wealth is not the only way to get rich. For most of human history it has not even been the most common. Until a few centuries ago, the main sources of wealth were mines, slaves and serfs, land, and cattle, and the only ways to acquire these rapidly were by inheritance, marriage, conquest, or confiscation. Naturally wealth had a bad reputation.
Strongly implying that in the modern world most large fortunes come from making wealth, but presenting no actual evidence. From observation, most large fortunes come from trickery: either in markets or by being hired as a CEO and negotiating high, non-measured compensation by abusing conflicts of interest. I haven't studied the question carefully, though. Has anyone?
He also strawmans the pure-pie model. The real pie model looks something like this. A very large group of people collaborate to create something of value (even in software, there are library authors, hardware makers, ISP maintainers...). Some are part of the same company. Some are tied in via contracts, shaped by negotiators. Once the good is made, the wealth is divided up among the team. (Simultaneously, the team works on the next hunk of wealth -- it's a pipeline, not an alternator.) It is meaningful to look at the distribution phase in isolation, with the caveat that how the distribution phase impacts the production phase is a factor in how good the distribution model is.
The future is more global, which means it's more and more of Taleb's Extremistan. I don't think we should be working to try to change such effects; it's natural and comes with technological progress. What I would like to see is compassion and epathy for those increasing numbers who are left behind by it. We have to figure out this or it will be detrimental to us all.
'Blogger Danne Nordling pointed out a strange fact about the book. Its measure of inequality, the most important factor in the book, is not gini, the standard inequality result. They seem to use 20/20 richest and poorest ratio. Why make this strange choice, when their source (UN Human Development Index) has gini? I smell data mining.
First for fun I did a simple regression of life expectancy on income inequality and per capita GDP for all countries the UN has data for. The correlation between inequality and health is not statistically significant. '
Also, take it upside down - why isn't the US currently clearly richer that Europe? Germany, Sweden provide good examples that a bit higher taxing isn't killing the economy, much more the opposite. Also India and China have such a growth because they also produce a middle class, and not only super riches.
But well, it's the old discussion libertarians vs utilitarians... ;)
http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog/2010/07/27/the-supersta...
In fact, I think one of the biggest flaws in English right now is how we use the same word - equal - for concepts as diverse as law and economics. "Unbiased courts" and "taking things by force from people performing better" really, really, really shouldn't use the same word. They do currently - equality before the law, and income equality. Facts-based-unbiased-law is obviously a good thing. Take-by-force-from-best-performers, on the other hand...
Anyways, I haven't written the "I reject equality" piece because of how touchy it'll be, and how I'll have to ultra-carefully craft the arguments to say exactly what I intend to say, and no more or less than that. But I do think a goal of total equality is fundamentally hostile to excellence - excellence, by definition, is better than the rest. At some point, you have to start pushing down on the best if you want everyone to be the same. I understand some people will disagree with me on this, but I personally think that's a really bad thing.
taking things by force from people performing better
And this is where your argument will completely derail, not in consistency, but in it's ability to convince anyone with other basic assumptions about the goal of income redistribution policies. Asserting this, you've already lost and are preaching to the quire.The pertinent point is that people perform better through a combination of 'working hard', 'being more able' and 'luck', where the latter is not to be underestimated. You're elevating 'economically better performance' to 'being morally entitled to a greater share of our aggregate affluence'. That is as hard to defend as any other moral standard and probably not a debate you wish to engage in. I certainly don't believe all those bankers have 'performed better'. Many have merely been lucky, many others have gamed the system.
It also shouldn't be necessary to argue that point. What we care about is 'what works?'. How much wealth should people be allowed to keep, to optimize the sum of their performance not just in terms of economy, but also in terms of humanity. What have they added to this world, to all those around them?
I gladly give up half my income to live in a society like the one I live in. I love the Western European welfare state and regret the American winner-takes-all mentality that disregards how lucky you are to live this specific life in the first place. I'm not just me; I am everyone I love. You cannot convince me of allowing you to retain more of your wealth, unless you can convince me that it would not decrease the wellbeing of people I love, including those that are disabled, without a job, etc. Today you, tomorrow me.
I will offer a pre-counterpoint: equality is not (should not be) about everyone being the same or at the same level, but more "from each according to their ability" — but at the same time considering the 100% effort from everyone to be (nearly) as valuable. This leads to the second question of what you consider essential in achieving exellence: I hope you can offer more of an explanation than "more money as reward".
Why should we do something so wrong?
Consider Derek Jeter and me. No matter how much effort I put in as a baseball player, I'm not going to approach him on his worst day. And that's true even if I was 10 years younger than he is.
Some people are better than others at some things. Their effort is more productive. Ignoring that is dumb.
And then there's the problem that not all things are equally valuable, so even if two things take an equal amount of effort, that doesn't tell us that they're equally valuable.
Derek Jeter probably can't do [whatever it is you do] as well as you can — nor should he try if he's found his niche. You both are probably both examples of highly skilled workers, and there are also jobs which require less skill that nevertheless must be done. We could further argue that absolutely everybody has something in which they would be considered high-skilled if they realised it and developed their skills but even that is not really necessary for the thrust of my pre-counterargument which is that from the perspective of the entire society, all necessary work is roughly equally valuable regardless of whether it can be done by 1 or 999 people out of 1000 (or million).
The second part of that pre-counterargument is the motivation for excellence. Personally I do not think that wealth[1] is really a factor for geniuses, most of whom seem to do stuff out of sheer joy of doing it. I'm willing to entertain a pre-counter-counterargument, but some historical analysis would be welcome.
[1] Beyond a reasonable level of comfort and in a society which does not require you to hoard loot to ensure survival of progeny, and certainly not at the levels where you could not even conceivably spend it all.
Your assertion that all necessary work is roughly equally valuable is wrong. And then you compound the error by ignoring supply. (It's unclear whether you're ignoring demand as well.)
> Personally I do not think that wealth[1] is really a factor for geniuses
That's irrelevant because few people are geniuses, so it doesn't much matter what motivates them.
I get it that you think that you're not motivated by money and think that other people shouldn't be, but the brain-power going into high-wealth fields suggests that money does have some motivating power.
Honestly, I'm not sure how to reply to that, because I don't think any single human in history has ever given anything near 100% effort or achieved 100% of their potential.
Maybe a rare few individuals - da Vinci? Jefferson? Tokugawa? Socrates?
But I'm not so sure of that, even. No matter how good you get, you can always make another incremental improvement.
Couple that with the fact that the vast majority of major breakthroughs come from individuals or small teams, and I think anything that stifles excellence to potentially help get more out of everyone is misguided. Again, though, I realize that I hold the minority position on this idea.
I think it is probably correct to say that the tips of major breakthroughs come from small groups, but to claim entirety of the credit would be discounting all of the work, research, support and infrastructure currently and in the past. I do not think it is feasible to go to an "every man for himself"-system at this point — plus I'd like to see some historic examples of such successes if that is your gist. Notably fostering an overall empowering society is not the same as putting Joe Sixpack in the Manhattan project 'cause he's been trying so hard, bless his little cotton socks. You need not respond here, but I hope your article-in-potentia can sufficiently flesh out and support your idea instead of only trying to deconstruct the current (?) stifling environ.
However ridiculous I might find much of what you say, I love your optimism here.
Now, wouldn't it be desirable for more people to have more of an opportunity to achieve their potential?
Also, I've experienced "taking by force" only a couple times in my life and I don't think the tax system resembles this.
The system you propose, if implemented, will soon degenerate to how well one can pretend to be disadvantaged or fake the effort, so that more rewards will be offered even when the work output stays the same. This is equivalent to giving bonus for the hours spent as face time in office while chatting on Facebook there.
Good to see a bit of Marxism/Communism on HN occasionally! -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_each_according_to_his_abil...
What's ironic is that a world of fewer and fewer superstars making more and more money is a world in which there is more and more equality - in that all the others are equally in shadow of the few superstars.
My Freshman philosopher professor told a parable. One despot asked advice from the another. The second despot lead the first to a field and proceeded to spin his staff, cutting all the stalks of grass above a certain level. That illustrated how to maintain the highest level stalk of all.
I'm into to the rejecting equality thing. I am seriously. I just suspect you haven't thought all of it through...
(for example, have you read Nietzsche?)
Arguing against a "goal of total [income] equality" wouldn't be as interesting though: pushing for total income equality is not a mainstream policy position.
I think that what you're saying is that decisions need to be made in the scope of the current context. In other words, they need to be made subjectively. In other words, we can all be equal under the law. I am just as important under the law as anyone else (at least in theory). But that doesn't mean that the courts need to treat everyone the same.
In the context of a company, all employees can be more or less equal. But that doesn't mean they need to be treated the same. Everyone is different, and you need to take that into account when you decide on salaries and position and whatnot.
Something's wrong with that final number, unless the world population recently quadrupled without my noticing ..
Where will it end up?