$15 Minimum Wage Would Leave 1.3M Jobless, Lift as Many Out of Poverty

Here's the publication: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55410 Here's the report: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-07/CBO-55410-MinimumWa...

From the report: "In an average week in 2025, the $15 option would boost the wages of 17 million workers who would otherwise earn less than $15 per hour. Another 10 million workers otherwise earning slightly more than $15 per hour might see their wages rise as well. But 1.3 million other workers would become jobless, according to CBO’s median estimate. There is a two- thirds chance that the change in employment would be between about zero and a decrease of 3.7 million workers. The number of people with annual income below the poverty threshold in 2025 would fall by 1.3 million."

By 2025, automation should be way ahead than we have here. I wonder how that would help or not help these numbers. Maybe the overdue recession will increase the jobless number. Or the economy will keep trucking on and the number would be close to zero. So many questions, so little answers.

"Research suggests that a minimum-wage increase could have a small stimulative effect on the economy as low-wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front."

https://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/

Even within the document when they talk about the uncertainty of effect the minimum wage has on employment they're talking about uncertainty of magnitude (negative) and not uncertainty around the direction of that change.

Take a look at:

"By boosting the income of low-wage workers who keep their jobs, a higher minimum wage raises their families’ real income, lifting some of those families out of poverty. However, real income falls for some families because other workers lose their jobs, business owners lose income, and prices increase for consumers. For those reasons, the net effect of a minimum-wage increase is to reduce average real family income."

I think if you read that quote to different economists who study the minimum wage you would find very, very different opinions on how true it is.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55410

There's some subtlety worth quoting in contrast to the headline:

"CBO estimates that there is about a two-thirds chance that the change in employment would lie between about zero and a reduction of 3.7 million workers."

"There is considerable uncertainty about the responsiveness of employment to an increase in the minimum wage. If employment is more responsive than CBO expects, then increases in the minimum wage would lead to larger declines in employment. By contrast, if employment is less responsive than CBO expects, then such increases would lead to smaller declines in employment. Findings in the research literature about how changes in the federal minimum wage affect employment vary widely. Many studies have found little or no effect of minimum wages on employment, but many others have found substantial reductions in employment."

So, between nothing to a small re-training program. Go for it!

Highly-automated agribusinesses, especially those located elsewhere, don't have this problem. Neither do farmers willing to break the employment law. But my friend for some reason doesn't seem to want to become a professional criminal.

All of these programs that shift costs onto employers are fundamentally flawed for many reasons. The most obvious reason is that lots of people aren't employed.

That line is about the president. Current wage level is "too high"??!! How out of touch are the people running for (and holding) office?

They hammer these 2 points relentlessly year after year: Tax cuts for the rich are good for the economy. A minimum wage for the poor is bad for the economy.

Of course they are only interested in what's good for all, and not what is good for their wealthy readership.

Please.

Australia and Scandinavian countries are good examples of this in action: high minimum age, but everything is ridiculously expensive.

It's much better if we provide education, so people better themselves and increase their value in the workplace.

I feel like this is only used by the politicians, who don't really care about people getting out of poverty, and want people to not only vote for them (for getting a government-enforced raise), but be dependent on them for life.