Hmmm, I'm not so sure about this. With things like microarrays and other tech, sure there were promises that were too big. But the underlying idea (gene expression matters, there are lots of genes, we should measure them all) is correct.

To wit, RNA-seq has transformed cancer biology. And Nanostring is now offering a microarray-like technology with extremely impressive signal to noise. And we still use lots of tools initially developed for microarrays (Limma, for example). So I would argue the investment in microarray technology has absolutely paid off.

I think you're throwing the baby out with the bath water to say that, because a few bad eggs are effectively salesman and not scientists, that we wasted "hundreds of billions" of dollars (i.e., a large fraction of the NIH budget). The fact is, most research doesn't hold up not because the researchers weren't honest, or because they were salesmen, but fundamentally, because science is hard and it's really hard to be right for the right reason in science.

Alternatively, if you have a formula to determine, in real time, which results are hype and won't stand up vs. which are real and will, well, that would be something too.