So, the actual counter argument to Pascal’s wager is this. If there are some true god(s) that care they might have an actual objective scale, but as it’s unknowable any sacrifices for a specific religion are unwise.
In other words we don’t know if the objective scale is a specific belief, doing charitable works, sacrifices on a dark alter, or even maximizing the number of times we say purple on a given day. Further, without specific information you are equally likely to get the scale reversed as correct, possibly both suffering great long term harm as well as sacrifices in life. Thus, with the sum of all possible outcomes averaging to zero, the only net expected result is the sacrifice in life.
PS: I am positing this as a flaw in a logical argument, don’t take it out of that context.
My point is the availability heuristic makes biases people to overestimate how likely each religion is to be true. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic) The set of all possible religions would first need to be limited before that specific line of thinking becomes relevant. Which essentially means the argument is meaningless as you must first assume a religion is likely before it would tell you to follow it.
Suggesting you can intuit the non verifiable parts of existence seems like hubris in that context.
does prayer or meditation make you feel better?
do the laws proposed help you interact better with others?
all these things can be verified.
you need to look at what each religion claims, and what the outcome in that religious community is.
humanity should continuously improve our society. globally.
we progress scientifically, and we should (and do) progress socially. the latter is the purpose of religion. every religion, when introduced, has induced social progress. if a religion is no longer serving that function, then it's time to move on.
let me rephrase that:
If following civil laws has zero downsides in life, then they need no justification. However, the act of trying to justify certain laws suggests that they are not inherently optimal
life with zero downsides does not exist. we need to make some compromises if we want to live together as a society. be those civil laws or a religion is a matter of choice, but we can't opt out.
the need to justify religion does not invalidate religion any more than the need to justify laws invalidates those.
as a society we still need to decide which laws we want to implement.
and as an individual everyone needs to investigate for themselves which religion (if any) to follow.
Anyway, you don’t need to opt out of religion, that’s the default state. To use an obvious example, at birth people don’t have a codified view of what happens after death.
People can and often are biased based on their upbringing, but that in effect takes effort from an existing believer to communicate their beliefs directly or via artifacts like books. Without that, nothing forces you to form an option.
Aka if religion Alpha offers the best possible tangible outcomes using whatever metrics you are bashing this choice on and it also offers the best possible unknowable outcomes then their is little reason to pick anything else. By tangible rewards/costs I mean things that could be theoretically verified like joy, physical fitness, social acceptance, positive legacy etc. and by intangible rewards/costs I mean what the gods / spirits / whatever think of you, what happens in the afterlife etc.
Essentially it’s only if you rank religions by tangible rewards and intangible rewards separately and end up with a different first place that the intangible rewards become an issue.
I disagree. Nobody needs to investigate any religions. There's no knowledge based reason to do that. You might want to join religion for the community but even then there rarely any investigation necessary. It's sufficient to just follow their practices.
if you just want to join a community, and don't actually care what the community stands for, sure.
but we are discussing pascal's wager.
if god exists, you want to do what god asks for. that requires that you investigate what god is really asking for. joining a random community and just following their practices will help you do that. you have to investigate and figure out whether these practices make any sense.
you may or may not find an answer. either way it's up to you to keep searching (maybe there is a better answer).
sure, you can take pascals wager on blind faith. but that would be a pure gamble. i prefer to make an educated guess. and that requires investigation.
It's always a pure gamble since there is no knowledge about which god is more real.
> i prefer to make an educated guess. and that requires investigation.
Your guess will not be anymore educated regardless of how much you investigate. Because the only way to investigate claim of some god's existence is to ask people who can't know either.
No matter how smart you are, garbage in, garbage out.
the only way to solve this is to investigate all religions and decide which one is the most likely (if any) and then go with that (or none at all)
Especially important part because picking the wrong one might end in infinite suffering.
Relying on old guesses instead of knowledge gives you objectively worse results in any kind of activity. It's not a stretch to assume it also has the same effect on your life as a whole.
The never did make any sense. It's just that now we can use knowledge to point out many specific places that we know are wrong.
> independent investigation (and not letting others tell you) is the only way to find out.
You definitely should let others tell you about the world we are living in. But those others should be the ones that posess knowledge. And since science is the only way to get actual knowledge about reality then you should probably stick to what science says and ignore everything else.
If you want to investigate religions be my guest. Just start with atheism. It will save you a lot of time and a lot of mistakes.
oh sure, but every individual still needs to judge for themselves what they learn.
science doesn't help us solve our social problems. and as far as i can tell, neither does atheism. none of the mainstream religions are capable of that either, but the answer is out there.
i'll leave it at that because i don't want to promote a particular belief here. that's a topic for another time and place.