One reason for the high cost of housing in California is overregulation
latimes.com
latimes.com
https://quantgov.org/state-regdata/
the articles starts out saying that the California Code of Regulations "contains more than 21 million words". Which made me curious: how many words for Texas' code? Answer: 15 million.
$ grep '^[[:digit:]]' admincode_california_metadata.csv | cut -d, -f5 | tr '\n' '+' | (cat; printf "0\n") | bc
21172868
$ grep '^[[:digit:]]' admincode_texas.csv | cut -d, -f7 | tr '\n' '+' | (cat; printf "0\n") | bc
14929400
I'm not trying to make a political point, was just genuinely curious.More importantly: this is both to be expected and rather benign. It's expected because regulation simply grows with the complexity of society, which is increasing at a similar or even larger pace. Most of our wealth is due to specialisation and research. And with the benefits of, say, flying cars, comes the need to establish rules.
It's also benign because almost nothing of it will ever concern you, or any other specific individual. You can fly your car without knowing the crash test procedures for it. They are relevant only if you are building flying cars. In that case, you do have to familiarise yourself with the rules, but that is a task of the same magnitude as it was with existing regulation for (regular) cars, which no longer concern you.
And I would be highly skeptical that it would ever approach a finite value, I mean, why would it? What is the incentive for politicians to just stop making laws once they reach a certain threshold?
Here is a quick chart I found with google that indicates, at least as the American federal govt is concerned, the growth is essentially linear: https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/za...
https://fee.org/articles/idaho-repealed-its-entire-regulator...
> [I] never saw so many alligator shoes and $600 suits as when some agency is up for sunset review.
Source: https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Is+the+sun+setting+on+the+Tex...
That suggests a more general downside from sunsetting--it increases opportunities for lobbying. Worse, it benefits long-term preparation and strategy, which will favor monied interest groups and lobbyists especially. Which is similar to the downsides of term limits, which effectively shifts power to those behind the scenes--e.g. political operators, party bosses--rather than to the electorate. If you make serving in an office a literal revolving door, you empower those positioned to line people up at the door. Likewise, if you make lawmaking a process of continually rehashing old compromises, you empower those playing the long game.
Other factors they mention (single family requirements, lot size, density) have a lot more to do with it.
There are nice aspects of energy codes. For one thing, potential renters and buyers have little insight into how efficient a house or apartment really is. Since landlords and builders aren't paying the utility bills they are incentivized to reduce upfront construction costs at the cost of higher utility bills (and environmental damage) going forward.
If these codes are effective then they might be worth the increased construction costs. I'm not necessarily saying that they are (I don't know, maybe California's code is filled with frivolous, ineffective details; the article doesn't really give any examples) but I think just the fact that they increase upfront costs doesn't actually mean they aren't a good idea.
No, it doesn't, though it will soon.
> It's a huge cost.
The estimates of $10-30k are under (to far under) 5% of the median home price (for all sales, not just new homes, which would drive the median much higher). It's obviously not a significant current cost driver, and it also won't be a big cost driver when the mandate actually applies next year.
$30,000 here, $30,000 there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.
Yes, as of Jan 1, 2020.
> That's insane.
It's $10-30k of upfront cost for $19-$60k of 30 years savings (and the same sources estimating the higher cost figure estimate the higher savings figure), and it greatly advances California's renewable share of generation, and solar output peaks correlate well with aggregate demand peaks in CA.
As public policy solutions go, it is eminently sensible.
Meanwhile new construction is way more expensive than the existing boosted rent. You can claim regulation is responsible for part of that, but why wouldn't the vendor charge less than the nearby boosted rents to compete? Did regulations somehow literally eat $1500/mo worth of margin? It defies plausibility.
When I moved to the SF south bay area about 10 years ago, my rent was $700/mo. The equivalent is now upwards of $2000. It's hard to imagine policies that could possibly make it go up that high. Imagine if we had rent control...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Clara_Valley#Cities_and_...
https://www.tenantlawgroupsf.com/blog/2018/november/which-ci...
Imagine you buy a piece of land for $100,000 with the intention of developing it. Until the property is developed and sold, you have numerous carrying costs (taxes, insurance, debt payments, etc.). In California, your annual carrying costs may easily be $8,000-$10,000 per $100,000.
If it takes you one year to develop the property, you need to sell the property for $108,000 just to cover the carrying costs (i.e. this doesn't account for the actual construction costs or selling costs). If it takes you two years to develop the property, you need to sell the property for $116,000 just to cover the carrying costs.
Keep in mind, the time to develop isn't idle time where the developer incurs only carrying costs. It's endless drafts, consultations, and meetings. It requires actual money to be paid not only to the city, county, and state, but to architects and planners and contractors to comply with increasingly byzantine and mercurial requirements. The longer this goes on, the more money a developer has to spend.
The longer a developer is forced to carry the property, the more they need to charge to recoup their investment. Since no one is going to develop property without anticipated profit, this means prices necessarily rise.
Ideally, yes. In practice, no. Capricious zoning and development regulators are on the HN front page at least weekly.
From the article:
"These energy rules reflect an important priority for Californians, but they contribute to staggering construction costs and, in turn, higher house prices. Affordable housing builders spend $400,000 per unit, on average, for new housing in Los Angeles, more than any other city in the country. State energy standards contribute to this cost."
As you say, labor seems like a much more significant factor. And restrictive zoning and NIMBYism even more so. But restrictive zoning is a sensitive topic for conservatives. Conservatives seem to be against regulation except when it's used to preserve the "character" of existing neighborhoods--not to be confused with historic preservation, which is bad restrictive zoning. Direct regulation is a more convenient target, ideologically. Likewise, I often hear conservatives lament the cost of labor but they're walking on glass by suggesting that working-class voters should be paid less.
To be fair, progressives make the same mistake of assuming new housing should be built for the poor and working class. And NIMBYism knows no bounds. Indeed, it was progressive efforts to "empower" communities that opened the doors for NIMBY obstructionism. It's difficult to devise a political mechanism that won't ultimately benefit the rich and powerful more than the poor.
https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulation/snapshot-wa...
My key take-away from these authors is this tidbit:
> Researchers at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University developed State RegData, a platform for analyzing and quantifying state regulatory text.
(1) More data:
Building permits by state, April 2019: https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/construct...
Hopefully all this commercial space rezoned for multi-purpose use (shops on the ground floor, apartments or offices above) will free up some of the low density real-estate but its not over-regulation keeping those houses high priced and full.
LA is basically doing everything it can to NOT build housing, of almost any kind, anywhere. And that's reflected in prices.
IE, take control away from NIMBAs?
Besides, the federal government is the least representative of people in larger cities. Your vote counts s lot more in rural America and in smaller states partially because of the electoral college and partially because Rhode Island has the same number of Senators as California.
An abundance of land suited to agriculture or resource extraction is irrelevant in a dispute about access to the 21st century economy, which is essentially urban.
But with the imbalance of power where rural America’s vote is worth more per capita than big cities/big states, do you really want to give that power to the federal government?
There is nothing stopping tech companies from “rural sourcing” - opening smaller satellite offices in less populous areas. A benefit of that would be that the tech industry wouldn’t be so myopic.
Do you know how often people on HN wonder how could any software developer live off of only $120K-$150K?
After the most expensive US cities, we find the cost-benefit for new engineering sites points invariably to other countries.
The federal government gave us the interstate highway system and FHA subsidies that enabled sprawl, it owes it to us all to clean up the abomination of suburbia. The most important thing would be a similar scale investment in urban rail, but it should probably be contingent on upzoning around stations, yes.
And they aren't.
I mean, New York City exists, for instance.
I live in Metro Atlanta, we are still building and growing like crazy, and there is no shortage of tech jobs that pay well considering the cost of living. There are plenty of other relatively affordable cities. If LA doesn’t want to grow. So be it.
That was a for instance. There are a number of other large and economically significant cities in the US that aren't on the West Coast, many of which also have relatively high existing (absolute, not just relative to local CoL) tech salaries. Washington, D.C., metro is just behind New York, for another example, but the list is long.
Another fun fact: there are about 10 cities in the US with a higher population than Rhode Island, and San Jose, CA has a similar population to Rhode Island with one-eighth the land.
Looks like we're well along that curve for housing in CA.
Sure, they're not helping. But high incomes and low taxes are a recipe for high prices. The only other state with high incomes and this low of property tax is D.C.
And D.C. and California both have average home prices roughly double everywhere else in the country. I wonder why. Maybe because incomes are 33% higher and taxes are 50% lower.
In contrast, low property taxes (and especially Prop 13 which decouples taxes from property values) causes homeowners to focus on building wealth through the appreciation of home values, which encourages NIMBY behavior.
Point I'll make. If 'regulation' is what's causing high prices by restricting supply why isn't commercial construction effected? Explain that?
The next step is obvious. The government must come to the rescue and subsidize housing.
What kind of manipulative garbage is this? onlyrealcuzzo isn't agreeing with the point you made; you aren't agreeing with the point onlyrealcuzzo made; and the point that you're making is only very slightly and tangentially supported by the thing that you're pointing out that onlyrealcuzzo tangentially said. This looks much more like you're trying to play gotcha games with onlyrealcuzzo's post, rather than dealing with it in good faith.
Edited to fix the user name.
Having left California a long time ago the reduction in income tax alone equated to a 10% raise.
A lot of this NIMBY stuff would vaporize if you simply allowed the tax and assessments to rise appropriately.
People wouldn't be quite so interested in "my housing value must always rise" if it meant that they couldn't pay their tax anymore.
https://www.nytimes.com/1984/10/30/science/how-release-of-me...
It's time to put this cherished chestnut away and stop making these false claims.
TL;DR: Reagan was trying to cut the budget and closing mental health hospitals was considered a win-win by everybody. That it happened under his governorship makes your statement literally true, but nonetheless very misleading.
It's important to recognize the history because when trying to address the problem now we hear the same retort--pills and freedom. But we got here precisely because we miscalculated the benefit of pills and the costs of an overly simplistic conception of freedom.
Why?
When we decided to go solar we opted to build a 13 kW array mounted on a custom designed pergola built in the backyard. We didn’t want it on the roof and we needed more shade.
The project was going to cost in the range of $50K to $75K. I did all the engineering and construction. By the time we were done the project cost us $125K.
I’ll spare you the details on the six months of agony the regulators put us through. They turned a super simple project into the worst nightmare I have ever experienced.
They have all the power. There is nothing —zero— you can do about it. And you better hold a smile any time you deal with them or they will deliver vindictive rulings from which you might never escape. CA needs a reset button. This is a mess. And it will get worse before it gets better.
In a lot of places in California, "how are such projects economic" goes beyond regulatory delays and their associated financial impacts. When you are spending $1M on a 1/4 acre property that you tear down and spend an additional $400k redeveloping, its certainly more than just regulatory costs making that so much more expensive than the vast majority of the US and the world.
If you search on-line you may find both opinions for and against housing regulation. I am totally against regulation but reading that the topic is a surprise is either a blant lie or the opinion of someone who doesn't live in this world and age.
https://reason.com/video/san-francisco-mission-housing-crisi...
As such these things are regressive against the poor, for which a electric car would be an extraordinary luxury, yet are required to implement it, else government thugs come to arrest you with guns in hand.