Maybe I just have less time and patience nowadays :-)
Maybe people just get fed up with the same grating pain points and need to spread the frustration around. Periodic changes in scenery are healthy. :)
At least on Linux I can fix the things that are really making me nuts.
In fact I would recommend it for anyone who only uses their computer for general, basic use.
We are far, far past the point where the general population is going to spend effort to learn about something as simple as using apt-update or even a GUI application update manager, ever. Phone operating systems give the user everything they care about (mostly content consumption, a little creation) without having to read or learn anything. If you ask that of people (to read and learn about an operating system) it's a non-starter for >80% of users.
For general, basic use I would recommend a chromebook or ipad. That's what most people are looking for - something that lets them do the handful of things they want to do with as little overhead as possible.
>For most purposes, it has been ready for years.[...] Most people, however, could switch to one of many Linux distributions and be just as productive if not moreso.
If "most people" includes non-technical users, I doubt they could switch to Linux without difficulties.
E.g. a typical non-geek user might be my friend that runs Windows. Some examples of showstoppers that makes Linux totally a non-option:
- Intuit Quicken which she's been using for 20 years. Yes Linux Mint was a possible alternative but its early releases (inside of your 15-year time period) didn't have reliable online downloads from financial institutions. Mint's later partnership with Yodlee api for transaction downloads still didn't make it equal to Quicken. Yes, Quicken is terrible and buggy software but early Mint was even worse for online banking scenarios.
- Netflix streaming was not easy to run on Linux until recently[0]
- AAA games (including recent ones like Fortnite) don't run easily on Linux. Valve Steam Proton is a recent effort.
- iPhone sync with Apple iTunes - running on Linux requires googling for articles of running a Windows vm or Rhythmbox on Ubuntu which may not work with certain iOS updates
- sewing machine embroidery software all runs on Windows and not Linux or even MacOS. The software also requires a dongle for copy-protection and the hardware drivers for the dongles only exist for Windows. Running Windows as a vm inside of a Linux Desktop and exposing the host USB port to the client vm won't fool the dongle software. If the ultimate solution to "Windows in a virtual machine" shortfalls is to dual-boot Windows and Linux, that advanced configuration adds more complexity and it contradicts the ideal of "run Linux desktop exclusively".
For people to run Linux without issue, the person would need to possess technical skills equivalent to you (e.g. a HN poster) -- or the person has a "guardian angel" as on-call tech support (e.g. a son/daughter/friend) to get them over technical issues (like Netflix) with workarounds.
I don't doubt you've been able to run Linux exclusively and there are more examples like you. Nevertheless, it still required a very atypical usage profile to run a Linux desktop exclusively for the last 15 years.
Even today in 2019, I would not recommend the Linux desktop to any of my non-programmer and non-sysadmin type of friends & family unless I was willing to be their on-call tech support to handle their inevitable Windows compatibility issues.
For Linux to work in a mass-consumer-facing situation, it has to be an "appliance" type of installation and "invisible" such that the user doesn't realize they're running Linux. E.g. as the underlying os in Android smartphones, or the os in smart TVs, or the os in Tesla cars.
The tech community doesn't realize that there is more than just office applications and browsers that people use. I can not install BIM (Revit) software on Ubuntu for example. I can't install Lightroom on Ubuntu. I know that there are alternatives and work arounds to software, but consumers only understand what they understand and is easy and mainstream.
The tech community can't expect consumers to spend time looking for alternative software. I feel that this is why the Windows Phone failed, because there was a lack of mainstream software (apps).
The day that BIM (Revit) is available to install on Ubuntu is the day I switch.
Yes, a lot of Linux desktop enthusiasts only include "web browsing and email" scenarios in their mental models. Therefore, they are not aware of how the Windows os is an unavoidable platform dependency in many critical workflows. This perspective is why "Linux desktop exclusively" appears totally realistic to them.
A similar scenario to yours just happened to me last month. A land surveyor gave me some 3D laser scan point cloud files. (Trimble RealWorks files which are ".rwcx" files generated by the Trimble SX10.) The software (Trimble Business Center) to import those files only runs on MS Windows. I tried running it on VMware but the Trimble software required DirectX 11 so it crashed with an unrecoverable error[0]. Well, VMware only supports up to DirectX 10[1]. It's another example of "just run Windows in a vm" on Linux Desktop doesn't always solve the problem.
This also highlights another underappreciated and unseen difficulty with Linux desktops: You often don't know you will have a roadblock with Linux until you encounter that roadblock. It's not easy to predict your future incompatibilities!
Yes, unfortunately, architecture CAD and BIM are not among those fields :(
Gaming is still very game dependent. Think of it like a console. Some "exclusives" just wont run.
If someone is using their computer to surf, write emails, watch netflix, alongside lite gaming, I find linux to be more enjoyable. I don't have to do any command line oriented stuff at all for general use. The initial install is also very simple. On a desktop :)
We will have to agree to disagree. I think it is more an issue of framing perspective than anything.
But as far as I know that is this case. That Microsoft's offering is much stronger when it comes to large scale corporate deployments. Unless you want to make the claim that e.g. RedHat's offering is on par or better, which isn't something I have heard in the wild.
Now, does using Ubuntu cover some of these glaring warts? Perhaps. But that often opens its own set of problems. Each comes with its own set of workarounds. Where macOS and Windows excel, is their sense of "polish". Most happy path things just work, and work 99% of the time.
All that said, I'm die-hard Linux ALL THE WAY! I just couldn't say that it's ready for most purposes. For the things that I'd use a tablet for? Sure.