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>They are the most sophisticated intelligence collection entity in the world, after all.

Who were caught completely off guard by the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the USSR, the Arab Spring, and basically every single geopolitical event in history. I wouldn't invest too much in their abilities.

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Intelligence gathering is not the same as predicting the future, no more than a thermometer can tell you whether it will rain on your wedding day. Data gathering is relatively easy, forecasting is hard.

Your analogy is poor; a barometer will indeed tell you it will rain on your wedding day, at least 12 hours in advance.

Forecasting is easy, if your collect the right data.

Every single one is a bit harsh. There is also survivor bias here, a bit like MiB, when nothing happens no one knows. Not to say they are that good but unlimited resources is difficult to best, even if they are rubbish in general.

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