Ask HN: What framework do you use to predict the future of a technology?

I have been trying to understand the way technologies progress forward and the increasing challenges, rejection, and adoption they experience in the journey.

I thought understanding the history of technology can provide answers to what might the future look like for a different technology moving through the "hype curve". (inversion)

For example, the speech recognition technology is in the "Plateau of Productivity" phase currently of the "hype curve" [1]. Accessibility of big data first and then deep learning were the two major changing points in history to push the field forward.

How do you think about the future of different technologies? Will be helpful if you can point out to relevant resources that talk about history and future of them.

[1] http://k1.caict.ac.cn/yjts/qqzkgz/zksl/201808/P020180814355000666438.pdf