I like your rule-of-thumb that you should not need a package manager.
Muratori has a theory that USB has made the OS scene complex (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZRE7HIO3vk&t=1350s).
Two other things - the browser and TCP/IP.
Goal: a system where you can fit the whole stack in your head, yet participate in a networked world.
Approach A. Outline a reference hardware platform. Port NetBSD or minix3 or plan9. Then simplify. e.g if unix, get rid of users and groups, get rid of x, get rid of package mgmt, get rid of nfs. You could bootstrap this in qemu.
Approach B. Establish an alternate browser. Something like gopher, but with async events between the 'page' and the user. This allows for chat and form manipulation. You can send non textual content through this async link - video, audio. Codecs are a trap, they lead to pkg management and complexity. How to stop proliferation?