Libra, a Cyberpunk Nightmare in the Midst of Crypto Spring
hackernoon.com
hackernoon.com
The lack of adoption is a combo of a 1) network "dead-zone", 2) reversal risk, and 3) regulatory friction.
FB & Co are uniquely situated to fix these 3 in a way small companies just can't.
1) Any network is useless unless people you need to use the network are using it. Cryptos are still in the "dead-zone" where there's not enough people using it where it has value as a payment platform. By integrating into existing apps (Venmo, FB Messenger, Paypal) that could change
2) Every fiat transaction has some level of reversal risk. There is legislation in the US that requires, and companies that implement, reversal of payments if the payor claims fraud or account takeover. Any company that sits in between fiat systems and the crypto systems have a huge amount of this risk cause they can't reverse crypto payments. These companies are uniquely capable of handling this risk because they already spending resources to figuring out that you're a real human being and you are who you say you are.
3) Regulatory friction (AML/KYC) is something these companies are uniquely able to tackle because they have your identity. Furthermore, they have the legal resources to find out how far they can push the line and lobbying to keep them from harm when they get too close.
2) Cryptographic proofs of payment. With that you can do a lot of fun stuff, especially with smart contracts. Going back to #1 you can make the gateway trustless
That position beaks down when the corporations control the means of transaction.
It would be a different story if Libra was a bunch of companies making an arrangement to accept each other's individually-issued cryptocurrencies, but instead its a cabal issuing one scrip that they all control.
I don’t have too strong an opinion, but certainly it’s a well-understood thing.
What specifically is bad about it? The ability for governments to seize money or interfere-with/surveil transactions looks like it will be preserved via Libra’s KYC/AML surveillance/protections.
I suppose for people with very large amounts of money, they might disagree with their government’s currency policy re: inflation/deflation. But for those people, a huge range of investment products exist to hedge.
How/why is a corporation better? A corporation's main goal is to profit.
For example, Experian has your data and is a significant factor in whether you can get a loan. You never chose to do business with them.
A cryptocurrency pegged to USD and ran by some of the most sliney, privacy-hating, PI-hording megacorps - is that really a good thing?
Consumers are not going to be thrilled about storing their money in a system where there's no official "if your account gets compromised or suffers a technical difficulty, you'll be made whole" policy. If it turns into a knock-on situation where they buy third-party insurance at their expense, it looks even worse.
For merchants, even if not technically required, legitimate players are going to have to find a way to bolt refunds onto such a system. The risk to reputation would be too great-- nobody wants to be known as "this is where people go to buy stuff with stolen crypto because they never refund." And this will be priced into things, just like now they have to price in losses due to bad cheques and stolen cards.
What's the best a perfect crypto dream can offer? An appeal to super-high-risk (and outright fraud) merchants who might benefit from not having surprise clawbacks and chargeback fees.
No, no, no. It’s the lack of a killer app, which the author bizarrely confuses as the lack of a phone app with a good UI. What does cryptocurrency (or a currency managed by a company) do that the fiat system doesn’t, /from the perspective of a consumer/? In other words, what am I currently using USD for that would be significantly easier or cheaper with crypto? Nothing. The majority of my money goes to taxes, loan payments on large assets, and food. Those are facilitated by... the government, banks, and a bunch of merchants who are not involved in this project. Good luck to Libra!
Government only really needs to do a few things to be essential, one of those things is securing and backing the legal tender, and yes this is also one of the ways they exert authority. It's also how they maintain legitimacy, this has been true for thousands of years.
What country is going to give up this power and hand it over to a consortium of multinational corporations (with 0 banks in it) led by a corporation that is controlled by a sole person?
If it can't be nationalized then they won't let it be adopted and I'm sure every country (including the US) has any number of laws that will allow them to prevent the undermining of their currency.
They let Bitcoin do its thing because it lacked all the things this has, which let them classify it as something closer to commodity/security, and not a currency. If this thing isn't that, then I don't see how this is going to be acceptable without the government demanding a massive hand in how it is run.
In the current climate of accelerating a new cold war, and potentially a hot one with Iran, the gov needs to take back control of all it's propaganda channels. FB has proven itself here as very valuable asset for disseminating view-points and is "too valuable" not to be unregulated
On the other hand, "we respect privacy" != "panopticon money."
What I mean by that is: for libra to actually be a stablecoin, for every libra unit in circulation, FB and their merry band of friends will need to stash a frozen combo of {dollar, euro, yen} somewhere.
That "somewhere" is actually not easy at all to design from a financial infrastructure point of view: any institution (other than central banks) who will actually store that stash will have to:
- be regularly audited by independent auditors
- be risk-free (and there is no such a thing) or the peg will drift.
Worse, these custodians of what is already essentially virtual money are going to be sitting on a huge pile of currency and to guarantee the peg, won't be allowed to do anything with it.I give it 6 months before that money is re-invested somewhere through some smart financial engineering.
It's not entirely a currency peg - it's an asset peg. The assets will be Treasurys, bunds, etc. that are _representative_ of currencies, but are not direct currencies.
The peg is going to drift. The history of currency pegs is filled with struggles by institutions to maintain the peg at a fixed level, only to let go of the peg and convert to floating. I think the idea behind Libra is that, while the peg will drift, Libra will still be a drastically more stable store of value compared to almost every other crypto.
I would not be surprised to learn that the Libra Foundation's custodians are the people holding the assets and handling the counter-party risk. It explicitly says in the white paper that the interest earned on the reserves held by the custodians will be used to pay for expenses of maintaining the network. If I was Visa, I would be more than happy to hold a basket of bonds and take a cut in a play to try to expand my customer base, by moving more people into the transaction market space.
I understand why my answer wouldn't sit well - putting trust into thesee parties and buying into the ideas behind Libra require a huge leap of faith, one that I don't think I would even participate in. But I do think that the mechanics behind how Libra manages the peg are actually not as nefarious or difficult as you laid out.
There will be a temptation to speculate on it. And once started, speculation could easily get out of hand. If they want some semblance of stability they’re going to be prepared to actively engage in monetary operations, just like any other currency.
All of this is answered in the Libra whitepaper.
> is how they are actually going to manage the peg. How will they handle the custodian counter-party risk?
"The assets in the Libra Reserve will be held by a geographically distributed network of custodians with investment-grade credit rating to provide both security and decentralization of the assets."
> be regularly audited by independent auditors
Pretty much any custodian with investment-grade credit ratings will be audited and heavily regulated.
> Worse, these custodians of what is already essentially virtual money are going to be sitting on a huge pile of currency and to guarantee the peg, won't be allowed to do anything with it.
The funds are not held in currency -- the funds are invested in "a collection of low-volatility assets, such as bank deposits and short-term government securities in currencies from stable and reputable central banks."
> be risk-free (and there is no such a thing) or the peg will drift.
Also answered: "as the value of the underlying assets moves, the value of one Libra in any local currency may fluctuate. However, the reserve assets are being chosen to minimize volatility, so holders of Libra can trust the currency’s ability to preserve value over time."
They're underestimating how difficult it will be to avoid losing money.
Bank deposits So what if Facebook and their partners don't park their reserves in mortgages and derivatives if their banking intermediaries do? Banks routinely go insolvent in recessions and financial crises.
Short-term government securities Which are currently paying negative interest rates in "stable" and "reputable" nations like Germany and Japan.
A "negative interest rate" means you buy a government obligation for $1000, and a year later you get back $997.
Can Libra reserves earn a high enough return to (a) fund their admin and security apparatus, (b) cover insolvent partners and institutions, and (c) cover fraud and abuse?
It's clear from the whitepaper that there is no upside to holding this currency, but it's not at all clear that it won't "break the buck" and actually lose money.
Sooner or later, FB partners will go to a fractional reserve model and effectively convert this "cryptocurrency" into a vehicle for inflating the money supply to a multiple of actual reserves by issuing debt.
My bet is this will happen sooner rather than later, because there's zero profit in sitting on giant pile of short-term cash.
Small countries might have to start thinking much more carefully about regulating the companies controlling this if it succeeds.
Sure, but if this succeeds they will have order of magnitudes more capital to do it with than is already a thing.
> large scale speculation on the economies of random small foreign countries isn't a "low risk" investment
They are the ones who get to define the term "low risk", as part of a basket of many such economies it deserves the term as well.
> the Libra Association has literally no incentive to move the backing of assets away from bonds denominated in currencies its user base wish to convert to.
Of course it does, and not just in terms of exerting political pressure (which is an incentive which is literally the purpose of this conversation) but in terms of maintaining a safe basket of goods with as high interest rates as possible.
Does Facebook have more decision power than Visa, MasterCard or any other participating corporation?
Or is Facebook simply the main vector Libra will be promoted with?
Would Libra still be a project if Facebook was (hypothetically) shut down?
Because FB launched it, and currently appears to have the most control over the project. At the same time, people don't actually take the time to understand the governance model.
> Does Facebook have more decision power than Visa, MasterCard or any other participating corporation?
No. They get a seat in the governance organization, which they hope will be about 100 organizations at launch (so they get ~1% of the vote.)
> Or is Facebook simply the main vector Libra will be promoted with?
For now, looks like it.
> Would Libra still be a project if Facebook was (hypothetically) shut down?
Yes, it would. Again FB will have just 1% of the control at launch.
But wouldn't FB be running/in control of the most of the infrastructure behind Libra? The stability of the currency would be dependent on FB providing the core services behind Libra. Having "just 1% of the control" doesn't matter if FB can just shut it down and/or destabilize it's value at will. It's FB actually intends for it to be an open cryptocurrency then why make a new one when we already have several options available other than being able to exert control over it?
It worked like this: soldiers were paid in coins. Taxes were required to be paid only with the new coins. The only way to get the coins, to pay your taxes with, was to sell supplies to soldiers who had coins. Armies supplied, check.
Facebook has an opportunity to force its coin into use by a similar stratagem: offer advertisers a discount (at first!) if paid in Libra. Advertisers can only get Libra from Facebook account holders. Advertisers have to sell at a discount, for Libra, to get enough Libra, but they get it back in the advertising discount. If buyers want these discounts, they need to get Libra from Facebook.
Soon, Facebook controls the economy of the world.
It was recently explained to me that Facebook only wishes they could be as evil as Google, but they were way behind. (Google passed Microsoft sometime back.) This could leapfrog Facebook far beyond Google's dreams.
Are we in for Dystopia? I can't see how not, unless they fuck up so it's both too hard to use and too easy to get ripped off.
The connections to Aadhar is far more interesting than is mentioned in the article. There is a revolving door between USAID's 'Catalyst' promoting cashless transactions, Aadhar and the people who benefited from demonetization. The Indian state has also been extremely antagonistic to Bitcoin and other such 'anarchist' platforms.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/a-well-kept-open-secret-washin...
The state apparatus often grumbles about 'terrorism' and how internet has made things difficult for them. Infact, the minister incharge of IT was quoted as saying in 2011 that internet access needs to be moderated with IDs (guess which one). It's almost certain that such legislation will be authorized in the coming decade - perhaps sooner if the "i-patriot" act which is in the waiting (in the US) passes earlier.
It may very well be that the retainers of the East India company (aka deep state) are planning on selling the nation for a few pieces of silver again - which would explain why policies remain uniformly the same with every dispensation. Would not be the first time, and should not be surprising. However, since history education follows the colonial model of cryptic self-justification, it should not surprise anyone that clear foreign geopolitical moves (India has close to half a trillion of IMF/WB loans) are now seen as 'nationalistic'.
It'll be very interesting to see how this proceeds in India - given its hostile stance on Bitcoin. I'm betting the state will welcome it with open arms and will probably proceed to tie it to UPI. In fact this could take a big share of the foreign remittance market, and could rope in Indian banks in to influence the state. I imagine people like Nandan Nilekani, who illegally pushed the 'Big Brother' project, will play crucial roles here.
But the biggest pay off is that once consumers buy into Libra as a thing on its own, the policy can be changed to no longer link it to any basket of currencies, and it can then be issued without that annoying and expensive currency-buying-thing. Just pure profit.
What am I missing?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seigniorage
You can only do so much of that before you debase your currency.
[Citation needed] has gone from a notation about checking facts to a trendy response whenever someone doesn't like something they read in a blog post or comment.
I also found the tone of the article a bit off, and it has nothing to do with whether I agree or disagree with any of it.
You don't have the rebellious notions of sticking it to traditional banks, not do you have (completely imagined) anonymity crypto fans have gravitated to. You don't have any of the intangibles crypto fans like.
It just seems like Facebook wants a central bank. Who's asking for that?
All of that will be tied to a real identity, but I am not sure Libra will also be completely free of these ties. There must be a point where to use your wallet you’ll have to justify your identity (i.e. above some amount or some kind of purchases you hit KYC requirements)
And while Libra definitely isn't perfect I think the set of trade-offs they chose are pretty reasonable. Another advantage over Venmo, Western Union, etc. is that the Libra will be run by a multiple independent companies, instead of locking you into a single company which is the case with the currently existing solutions (with the exception of SEPA).
At least in France, people actually use apps like Venmo for person to person transfers (or cash, or cheques, but they're on their way out).
We mostly use SEPA for either automatic bill payment authorization, or big transfers. No one will start a bank transfer and ask for their friends IBAN to pay back two beers.
Which makes me wonder, why haven't there been in-game tokens made universal yet? I don't do Facebook but didn't they once have a large Zynga game thing on the go, very much tied into the platform?
A monopoly on a virtual currency should have happened by now, one that only buys stuff in games, unlocking features etc., transferable to mates.
If this had happened then it would not be that much of a leap to make the virtual token be handy for real world things. Crypto-nonsense would not be needed, it could just be like a classic in-game token.
If the tokens can be cashed out to hard currency great. But some people might never need to do that. They could buy music and apps with mummy and daddy doing the top ups.
That would be a big no no and would ring money laundering alarms
> If the tokens can be cashed out to hard currency great.
Again, regulators, that's why Libra has the association and needs to back up each transaction.
In reality the payment processors take so big a cut that a virtual coin would not be very profitable. Plus you have to manage everyone's complaints and chargebacks. Facebook had FB credits but they scrapped it, presumably because it was not good business. There are some smaller companies who manage virtual coins on behalf of games, like superrewards.com . They take a big cut, but also save developers a lot of trouble.
As soon as (for example) Zynga claims that tokens can be cashed out for hard currency or used to buy arbitrary real-world things outside of that game, that would mean that all kinds of money-related regulations would start to apply for them. For example, many game mechanics that include these tokens and randomness would fall under gambling laws; and money laundering/KYC laws would start to be relevant. That's why pretty much every company offering such tokens will pinky-swear that they're not redeemable for cash and real world things, and take at least some visible action to combat any black market for such sales lest they'd be considered aiding money laundering.
In essence, you can't really have your cake and eat it too - there can be a cryptopunk-ideal digital currency but pretty much every legitimate business selling real world things would be prohibited from touching it (at least in nontrivial amounts, if they don't do their own deanonymization of customers like all the legitimate Bitcoin exchanges do); or you can have a digital currency that's usable on a scale (like Libra) but it can be that way only by implementing KYC (i.e. anti-anonymity) and AML (i.e. possibility for censoring payments).
They are mainly trying to catch up with WeChat Pay etc. But they figured it would be good to pretend it is a cryptocurrency because that makes it seem like an alternative to real cryptocurrency which it is not.
>The payment processors can't profit from real cryptocurrency and governments can't control it
I think you're underestimating the power of the tax man but I agree otherwise.
This isn't some grand strategy of Visa and Mastercard. $10MM to those companies is a write-off FOMO punt. If they had put in 20x that amount I would be paying more attention.
That's probably false. FB's coin will be at the mercy of the Fed and ECB, and most likely will be an equal or worse choice than any of the fiat currencies in the basket , considering central banks move in concert these days. It doesn't seem FB will pose any real threat to central banking unless they unpeg their currency.
Only if the currency flows out of traditional Fiat and into Libra don't substantially affect currency prices or the effect is more or less universal.
For instance, if the euro loses 10% value in a given period of time while 3 other equally weighted currencies are relatively stable, libra would lose ~2.5% value in that time. Given the low risk this seems like an obvious hedge if you are heavy in euro, and momentum could easily snowball.
Unless they’re referring to the dystopian feel of this whole thing, which is more likely.
See, for instance, the fiction of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_gibson
Cypherpunk refers to the same basement techno club but the freedom and rebellion comes from the privacy and inviolable secrets enabled by cryptography.
edit: Better comment below me, cyberpunk is very much set in economic dystopias, and the rebels are tech hackers.
FB exerts increasing control over, and insight into, financial transactions. Alongside excessive insight into most other aspects of personal lives. The result becomes the sort of MegaCorp that cyberpunk novels are built off of. Except, you know... I don't think William Gibson ever expected the future megacorp to have sprung up from an undergrad pivoting his Hot or Not rip-off.
Cyberpunk on the other hand is just a science-fiction genre, which mostly play in futuristic orwellian dystopias and people like to draw comparisons to them.
[0] https://www.activism.net/cypherpunk/crypto-anarchy.html [1] https://www.chaum.com/ecash/ [2] http://www.weidai.com/bmoney.txt [3] http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2005/12/bit-gold.html
You'd have to pick your allegiance and then face the consequences. Or they'd pick you before you had a chance to choose yourself. Do you think the lords of old let the serfs have a say in whether they wanted to leave or stay? No. It would be the same for us. Going to digital lords and barons and no states to rein them in would be regressing.
Overall governments increase standards which can lead to few players but it can also help an industry grow quicker and allow for more complex/value products/services which creates an industry around it helping support it (shopify)
The Ma Bell monopoly was created by government in the first place.
That’s right. By the government [0][1].
[0] https://www.wired.com/2013/07/we-need-to-stop-focusing-on-ju...
[1] http://blogs.reuters.com/jackshafer/2014/02/19/whos-afraid-o...
It is, because corporations have stronger incentives than governments to benefit the common man.
In theory.
Not at all. See “concentrated benefits and diffuse costs”.
Against democracy? Start another thread explaining why you're so damn clever you'd wind back centuries of political progress.
What happened to MobileCoin that Moxie was advising? When will it be integrated to Signal?
I try to look at this a bit more rationally. Given that blockchains have grown economically in the last few years for reasons that you may or may not agree with philosophically, morally, etc., it is not surprising that existing entities with economic wealth are looking to get in on the action. From this point of view, what Libra is doing is entirely unsurprising.
From a technical point of view, what Facebook is doing with Libra is cherry picking what seems to work in the market. Consensus models seem to work for the likes of Ripple, Stellar and a few others. There are a lot of people who object against this model for all sorts of reasons. But it undeniably works and scales quite well. A system this ambitious needs to scale. It's not optional.
I don't really see how Libra could have picked anything else given the current state of the art. Mining seems a dead end in terms of scalability and off by orders of magnitude from where it needs to be. There are lots of technical issues and even when it works, things like 50% attacks, insane energy consumption, etc. make this a non starter. Ethereum has been trying to switch to proof of stake for some time now and the are also trying to introduce sharding. Maybe this is fixable, but the reality is that they are nowhere close to shipping something that scales by the time Libra intends to open for business.
So, when Facebook decided to do this, building their own platform was a foregone conclusion because what's out there just isn't anywhere near good enough and basing it on consensus algorithms was the only logical choice technically.
The only relevant question is, why is it just Facebook doing this and how long is it going to take for the rest of the world to react? I'm talking about the likes of Google, Apple, banks, the oil industry, anyone with economic resources basically. They'll all want in on the action and not all of them are going to be inventing their own blockchain like platform (using the term loosely here). I doubt they are going to have Facebook have all the fun.
The follow up debate about the legalities and regulations is also going to be interesting. My guess is governments will react slowly and by the time they start making bigger decisions, it will be too late. Once you have a few "too big to fail" type companies doing stuff like this, they are not just going to pull the plug.
So, I expect things will heat up shortly. I think this is a good thing. We need competition of ideas and approaches. If what Libra is doing bothers you, stop whining and do something better. Now is a good time to get started with that.