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Comment by manojlds | Hacker News Reader

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manojlds·

Has broken $11k right now.

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It will pass $25,000 before the halvening in May 2020.

Increased equipment cost, same electricity cost but half the rewards = a large value shift.

Why 25? What makes you throw this exact number? Wild guess?

25,000 if we are talking about significant digits is not very precise. Also, I interpret the 5 to mean between 20 and 30k.

ancient art of albitcoiny

Many factors are working together to cause cycles around halvening points which result in price spikes.

Price action will inevitably cause a FOMO cycle again... when the economy goes south in the next 0-2 years, the liquid/scarce safe haven will be very clear.

The last peak and ATH is $20k; $25k is too low, the next peak might be $50k.

He's not talking about the peak. He mentioned it's at the halving date. Price usually doesn't peak for months after that.

Why would that not already be factored into the current price, especially given how established Bitcoin is by now?

The price discovery period doesn't end until all potential participants have entered the market and all coins have been mined.

Can you explain this a little more? I’ve always wondered about this question.

price discovery is the process of moving the price until you encounter more market resistance than you can handle in both directions. The process doesn't really end. It has to be redone after any new information comes to market.

halvening is not new information, so basically irrelevant for price discovery.

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