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Comment by partiallypro | Hacker News Reader

We do have video of what appears to be Iranians removing an undetonated mine from one of the ships. It is entirely possible, and it is known, that the Iranian military isn't exactly cohesive like other countries. There are fractures and some rogue elements. It's entirely possible a rogue element did this, or it's possible it came from the top down.

Iran knows that the US public doesn't believe its own US intelligence after Iraq, so it could easily be behind the attacks knowing that the US is on a leash of public opinion to do anything about it.

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We have video of some people doing something next to a big ship. Any interpretation beyond that from the US government can’t be trusted. Remember the photos of Iraqi WMD?

You’re right, Iran might have really done this. It’s also highly, highly likely that this is a big steaming pile of bullshit from the US.

What to do? Well, the consequences of acting on a US lie would be catastrophic. The consequences of failing to act on a real act by Iran would be negligible. The choice is clear. I pray we choose wisely, for once.

Even taken at face value, removing something in full view of US Navy (present at the scene for 4 hours) is not the same thing as "attaching" mines. It may well be that they were collecting evidence, on the record helpfully provided by US.

It is also interesting that a 3rd world country's navy has better camera equipment than the premiere power.

> It is also interesting that a 3rd world country's navy has better camera equipment than the premiere power.

Defense acquisitions at it's finest. Various bits of that camera have been certifiably touched by workers in all 50 states, and it took 10 years just to work out the contract details. That thing is bomb-proof but will fail catastrophically when exposed to a firm sneeze, and the CMOS sensor was "commercial off the shelf" tech from the lunar landing era.

Then what do you make of Iran showing up afterwards and forcing a ship that actually saved some sailors to hand over said sailors at gun point before the US could get there, therein making it seem like Iran rescued the sailors?

Or the photo of what looks like a mine, and the Iranian boat being in the exact same place...then that item just disappearing? Seems like a lot of coincidences.

That's even excluding a huge surge in activity of the Houthis, which are Iranian funded.

"It is also interesting that a 3rd world country's navy has better camera equipment than the premiere power."

I also don't know where you're getting this, the video the US Navy has is clearly taken from a drone miles and miles away from the ship, completely out of view of anyone.

Iran knows that the US public doesn't believe its own US intelligence after Iraq, so it could easily be behind the attacks knowing that the US is on a leash of public opinion to do anything about it.

That's a very optimistic take on U.S. public opinion. I think this is going to be a lot easier than you assume. If you start with Trump's approval rating, which is somewhere in the low forties, you just need another ten percent of the country to find it unbelievable that somebody would fake a casus belli against Iran and U.S. intelligence would go along with it. Once the mobilization is in swing, there will be an additional cushion of people who don't think the government should be second-guessed during a war, or who shrug their shoulders because they think Iran has it coming anyway. The media can't help cooperating; their editorial content might be against the war, but war coverage is inherently exciting and will stoke people's appetite.

If Trump does this -- and I think he regards it as his best shot at re-election -- I wouldn't be surprised if his approval rating goes to over 60% in the first week of the conflict.

Here's the video in question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5rZeMqvZ9g

I recommend Dan Carlin's episode on Japan in the '20s and '30s.

We had satellite images of wmds, we had videos of iraquis smashing babys in hospitals + witnesses - we had it up to here with faked evidence and lies.

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