It’s certainly more comforting to imagine that Xi is losing all four wars. But I do not see effective opposition anywhere. The party has lost, hence the removal of term limits. There is no effective protest in Xinjiang or Tibet. HK will soon follow once pan-democrats can be extradited and executed. China has the advantage in the South China Sea in that it has the equivalent of several aircraft carriers in the islands it controls under the status quo. It is only the trade war that might go awry for Xi, and rare earths are a relatively credible threat.

I would however withdraw money, because loss on those fronts isn’t necessary to cause unhelpful instability.