But in the end, the onus is on us to make sure there's enough stuff of value in the wider open network that the idea of someone using the protocol to try to create a walled garden is laughable and clearly missing the point - much like running a private email network is somewhat missing the point, or for that matter a walled garden like the web content on old-school AOL.
Hopefully we're on the right track to ensure there's enough stuff of value on the public Matrix network to make participation in it a no-brainer.
It'd certainly be more compelling if it was an actual feature though. Joking aside, federated machine learning could be an interesting approach, if the value that Matrix provided included a decentralised search engine which could help you sift through all the available content to find the chatrooms and communities you're interested in (and hide the ones you're not...)
XMPP has hardly been extinguished. There are something like 8 server implementations and zillions of client implementations. With OMEMO and Let's Encrypt it has has actually undergone a sort of resurgence lately. There are 100+ public XMPP servers out there. Matrix could only hope to be so extinguished...
So I am not really sure how you could EEE Matrix even if you wanted to do so for some reason. Something like this is hard to extinguish. If the network of servers was functional before it would still be functional after some entity pulled their server. Decentralization is sort of the point here.
Matrix is not there yet, cross device signing has to land. But the way it is moving is way more promising than XMPP.
(I also remember that federating with Google was always painful)
Yes, though I would say that decentralised MXIDs (and generally being able to transfer users) is an incredibly important part of this. Otherwise users will have immense inertia stopping them from migrating from a big homeserver that is being used to EEE the system. Luckily that is something that's being worked on.
Furthermore, the openness of the protocol allows free software projects to emerge and exist independent of the matrix company and even the foundation. Such projects can be developed by your contributions and the FOSS community's support until the end of time. One of those projects, for example, is one I started [disclosure] called the Matrix Construct server: https://github.com/matrix-construct/construct and your support of this project is necessary to that end.
If a lot of companies would provide XMPP as a way to contact them, then what Google did would be as silly as taking email private.
Instead, most people are completely used to isolated messaging systems.
So I guss for Matrix, the challenge is to make sure that the dominant use of Matrix remains public. To some extent Matrix is ahead due to the bridging with large IRC networks.
But there are also quite a number of people trying to set up non-federated Matrix servers.
As a concerete example; imagine next month Google announces their own Matrix instance. All gmail users are automatically signed in. The instance works with other Matrix instances. A year after that, Google stops federating anything but bare text to other servers, claiming protocol limitations. They continue to make interaction worse for non-google users until the non-google users have no choice but to join google or loose their social network.
Now lots of people start using one particular Matrix instance for that kind of communication.
Now the popular instance stops federating and people can't reach the companies they want to talk to anymore.
The way Google took over was by offering a better user interface than other public XMPP services.
If Google is obviously worse than other Matrix instances, then people will quickly drop them.
Though XMPP had to deal with a number of paradigm shifts: images, markup, audio and video calls, persistant history, disconnected operation, security, threading, multi device operation. And I probably forgot a few.
Today messaging is much more established. So the matrix team has many more examples of features that are in common use and how other people designed user interfaces.
So it may be harder for Google to win through engineering. They may just break other matrix clients on android.
Honestly I think that we need implementations with smaller RAM requirements. Last time I've heard that it's recommended to have 2 GB RAM for Matrix. That's a lot. I can run VPN, SMTP, IMAP, HTTP, Tor servers along with operating system in a 256 MB VPS. I can imagine that a lot of folks are employing similar low-power VPS for personal needs. Now if they want to launch Matrix, they have to significantly upgrade their VPS. I see no reason why personal home server with few users should require more than a couple of megabytes. I hope that alternative implementations like Dendrite will be better in that aspect.
I don't believe that will ever be possible. Winning with technology seems like the only way to do it. Google wants even IMAP.