China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
imo that would mean a lot of these towns wouldn't be in business for very long.
Edit: found the discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19617681
(Tesla was on front page the other day for burning cars, so move fast and break things is a thing here too)
https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Data-research-and-too...
Hopefully, India soon joins in. Their economy is starting to grow like China’s. Between the two, that’s 1/3 of the world’s population.
Anyways, Land Rover and Jaguar are Tata brands and present in both the above.
The market may constrain them to 200+ EPA ratings which will keep the price high. What we have not seen in the US is a mid 100 mile range car (130-160 or such) at a much lower price. I would be curious if such a car in the low 20k starting range would work?
The best result of a bubble is either a gradual deflation (prick it and let the air out slowly), or keep it from popping until demand can catch up.
>[Musk] said China puts a 25 percent import duty on American cars, while the U.S. only does 2.5 percent for Chinese cars. He added that no American car company is "allowed to own even 50% of their own factory" in the Asian country, but China's auto firms can own their companies in the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/elon-musk-sides-with-trump-o...
With all that in mind, however, other countries would be fools to allow this sort of economic asymmetry to continue. Especially at this point, when China is the second largest economy (and largest when adjusted by PPP), China doesn't need this kind of protection and is simply not playing fair. I don't know if tariffs are the best way of leveling the playing field but some sort of rebalancing and leveling of the playing field must happen because otherwise it is simply a rigged game.
There is even a very good argument that can be made that direct, unfettered foreign investment now would benefit China given its large consumer base with money to spend. Otherwise, the Chinese consumer is simply indirectly subsidizing Chinese corporations who made not have to compete as hard because of these protections.
This is incorrect, and has not been the case for a very long time, please don't spread FUD.
Wholly Owned Foreign Enterprise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wholly_Foreign-Owned_Enterpris...
And you aren't going to realistically sell anything, because Chinese companies always win.
And after partnering, you can't easily get your money outside of China, that was why BTC was extremely popular there, untill it got regulated. Even for an individual, the limit is 50.000$/year for exchanging money.
Give me an example of something that launched there that was not a luxury clothing good ( eg. D&G)
Even something as steam needs a local partner to launch there. So the "wholly owned" thing is not a solution.
It just "exists" for the sake of an argument. My parent company sells in the entire world except China because of that ( and some very small other countries). So I'm not exactly an outsider, it was my question to the "top guys", sort of speak :)
It was also what I thought before I asked it. So yeah, it is a thing without a doubt.
There's a lot of circularity in your comment.
A company can be wholly foreign owned.
A foreign owned company can sell in China, it can declare tax and issue receipts, employ people, rent office or factory space, build a building, the whole hog.
I'm not sure where what niche you are in regarding import/export taxes, opening factories, and employing cheap labour all in one gulp of air.
Wholly foreign owned companies in China are legal entities and have been for a long time, your comment "foreigners cannot own the majority of ANY company" is factually wrong and is FUD.
Do you have an agenda with these comments? Please don't make HN political.
WFOE cannot sell directly to Chinese consumers. The way WFOE sell to the Chinese domestic is essentially by "exporting" and "importing" its own products again, thus subject to taxes on such activities ( https://www.set-up-company.com/joint-venture-vs.-wfoe:-which... -- "Scope of Business" Wish I could find a better source on this). A friend of mine interned at one of these firms that basically specializes in these creative "re-import" businesses but I don't know what these firms are called.
Not sure why my comments generates such a reaction from you that you accuse me of FUD or being political. It's certainly not intended as such. I study Chinese history as a hobby, especially modern history. I have friends and family who do business in China (and own businesses in China). My comments were intended to add more information and background to the original comment by combining what I've read and what I've heard. But sometimes intentions and outcomes don't match up. Apologies if my comments injected too much of my own perspective on the subject.
Well, I can open up a sandwich shop. A foreign owned entity will indeed probably get scrutiny. A couple of friends have shops selling sandwiches (one toasted, one pizza type). They are WFOEs!
I don't sell sandwiches. I mainly work in tech, finance and HR (generalist, I suppose). Some industries are controlled, even in another reply someone mentioned Tesla's plant is 100% owned. If waving fans, I have been in China (mainland) for two decades.
What you type about ownership rules is utterly incorrect. You don't seem able to drop the ball.
Edit: I'm going to drop the ball here and discontinue this. I wish you a good day.
Edit: https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/17/tesla-inks-deal-for-gigafa... Seems like this is the start of a trend and the rules for joint ventures have changed. I stand corrected.
China does what everyone else does, but usually better in the long game. I both admire it and am terrified by it. We helped make this game. And we can't simply talk about fairness when we're not the benefactors.
That was the case decades ago, but it hasn't been the case for a long time. For several decades, China has been progressively removing ownership restrictions from different sectors of the economy. It removed restrictions on auto parts in 1993. It removed restrictions on automobiles last year. Foreigners can actually own majority stakes in most sectors now.
Tesla is an example of this. They do not operate as a joint venture in China.
Agree about the 49% thing, and it's not limited to car factories.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/24/news/car-auto-tariffs-us-ge...
US have several laws to protect against just that.
I'm betting that if the China auto industry will be successful, just like Huawei is, we're gonna see some tariffs and "human rights" accusations and all sorts of dirty politics.
It seems like the Chinese run at the speed of light these days while I'm still left to do Jira's and time sheets and bug hunting and colleagues that are really not that interested in anything software related at the same old 9-5 job.
Is China a viable alternative? Do you have any experience working with Chinese companies, startups, sw shops, etc?
9am-9pm, 6 days a week for $41k a year.
[1] https://www.scmp.com/tech/start-ups/article/3005947/quantity...
https://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-social/article/3002533/no-sle...
Some are trying the "996" every other week thing now.
What native Chinese-built software products have done well outside of China?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-04-18/tiktok-br...:
> ...[Bytedance] is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to advertise on Facebook in the hope of luring away more users. Over the past three months, for instance, 13 percent of all the ads seen by users of Facebook’s Android app were for TikTok, says app-analytics firm Apptopia.
That's been their MO in China as well. IIRC, the mainland Chinese version, Douyin, was being heavily and repeatedly promoted with the Chinese equivalent of ads during the Superbowl.
Sounds like your job just sucks, you could find a better one in the states, China is always an option also but try foreign companies there first for a better work life balance.
"The towns are typical of China’s command-led approach to its economy."
However, try to VC say a factory manufacturing metal parts or plastics, nobody will say yes...
Heck, try making actual cars or even golf carts on VC money. VC funders are either interested in something completely not speculative and small (eg. EU VC scene) or total moonshots in badly understood markets where no actual R&D is required.
If the thing is very speculative research, most VC aren't interested.
It takes time to develop engineering expertise, but China has some great engineers who are able to teach the younger generation thus building up a system of being great. I don't know if China is leveraging this internally, but that is lack of personal knowledge. I believe they are going to transform to be another place to get quality products in 20 years.
My guess is India will mostly skip the cheap junk phase of manufacturing: we have been developing their engineering expertise more then their manufacturing.
I see India leveraging its democracy and relative openness plus its large English speaking population to achieve this.
Still.
It's impressive for exactly the same reasons. It's hard to foster an intellectual elite in a dictatorship, to maintain motivation and cooperation across a gigantic country and 1.7B of people.
Beside, we did the same: polluting, forcing population to work, etc, only 100 years before, but we attacked other countries while doing so. Which China haven't. And about this pollution thing, they seem to correct trajectory faster than we did, given their timeframe and inertia.
It's amazing to watch.
On the contrary you could argue that the brutal competition in the country encourages people to be razor sharp in some fields.
A more controversial and touchy point is that they have a strong sense of national and ethnic unity, which many democracies lack. This has many disadvantages of course,[0] but can be extremely helpful for maintaining cooperation and motivation at a large scale whereas the West arguably has trouble dealing with ennui and lack of purpose. To some extent the form of functional ethno-nationalism China has is hard to reproduce elsewhere, and is the result of very specific historical and geographical factors. Japan and Turkey for instance have similar traits but nowhere near the same results. So China is tautologically highly suited to doing what it is currently doing.
[0] https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/11/19/the-upper-han
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/evolution-chinese-nat...
Have we forgotten about Nazi technical excellence, Werner von Braun, and the Soviet space program?
It’s easy to pour money into STEM fields. If you only crack down on ethnic minorities and outspoken dissenters, and if you censor uncomfortable news about these crackdowns, the majority of your engineers and scientists won’t care enough to DO anything. This approach worked for the Nazis and, to a lesser degree, the Soviets. It is working very well in China.
One could argue that both the Nazi and the Soviet programs had roots in pre-existing system setup up before the totally authoritarian ones took over. For Germany, Imperial Germany + the Weimar Republic (both flawed democracies, but still, democracies) and for the USSR, Imperial Russia, which ok, might have not have been democratic in any modern sense, but was pretty liberal from a scientific and artistic point of view. Way more so than the USSR.
If anything, both the Nazis and Soviets drained their scientific communities so much that by the end of the regimes they almost destroyed them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_space_program#Notable_f...
Mostly because certain very poor agricultural decisions caused repeated famines and further social unrest. Other than that it is telling that USSR was essentially a close second to USA for most of its existence, sometimes even at the forefront.
The problem was management in the lower base levels like building industry, especially agriculture and some low level factory work, like parts or pieces. R&D and military industry was excellent.
Both were subject to the 'dont trade with communists' policy during the time they both existed..
But wasn't this the same time as glasnost/perestroika?
And again, this doesn't happen in a vacuum..
Was non-communist policy (e.g the west) more favorable to china than russia?
The USSR drained everything else to keep the space program and the military at a high level until it fell.
Once it fell, I'm pretty sure most of those researchers ran wherever they could, as fast as they could.
Nothing really was drained for advanced projects, not even coffers. What happened was tragic mismanagement of agriculture, part manufacturing and building industry. This resulted in serious shortages all around and many deaths to famine.
Only at the end did innovation slow down, due to above factors and social unrest.
Soviet biology was utterly destroyed by an ideological commitment to Lysenkoism.
The USSR never committed so many resources to war; they engaged in the "cold war", but that was really about it. Germany was fighting an active war on two fronts and got crushed in the middle. The Soviets just built a bunch of bombs and walls (after the action in WWII).
That's a massive understatement. The Russian Empire abolished serfdom in 1861[0]. There's no way that the Soviet space program was an extension of institutions from a society that was literally feudal a generation before the revolution.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emancipation_reform_of_1861
During the cold war, little progress has been made engeenering that were not benefiting the wzr effort. Source: my last gf was born on the other side of the wall.
Is this about China or the US? I mean it's got prison / slave labor, cheap workers (minimum wage, what's that?), huge lands, etc. Don't think the US moved away from those practices a hundred years ago, they're still doing it, they're just calling it differently and it's coming from financial interests now instead of political ones (e.g. private prisons that make sure to keep their cells (over) full and their cheap labor supply up)
This is an old pattern that's just getting more efficient and China's able to sell to it's own markets. Freeing up more human and financial capital for China to do their own R&D/entrepreneurship.
The biggest reasons are the loss of domestic experience curves [1] to other countries when we shifted to a service based economy. The second is the hyper politicized process of even creating a factory, let alone operating one, even when you have the direct backing of the executive branch [2].
The other one (allegedly) is the idea that the local labor workforce won't want to do any of the hard/dirty jobs or can't do them cost effectively, often because 1 and 2 but other reasons. So there are higher initial costs for automation.
But otherwise there are plenty of good reasons to operate production domestically once the technical and political environment supports such a thing. Which might happen in the future, although few mainstream parties seem to actually want that to happen without their idealized or prior worldview being appeased.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-06/inside-wi...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/nov...
What if someone acknowledges that battery powered cars cannot reach the utility of fossil cars or trucks even? What if somebody invents a safe hydrogen cell?
VCs do it all the time, why can't a government do it?
Not saying this strategy is bad, but it will inevitably end up like deserted coal cities if the industry is too mono-cultural.
~$75 billion by 2017
At this rate, we will arrive at a point were Brexiteers were correct on most important developments.
What does this refer to? The EU has generally been strong on privacy protection.
This potentially could reduce privacy protection to the lowest standards of any member state.
Terrorism and cyber crime are negligible threats to the EU. It has more of an existential crisis. These kind of laws that have invigorated us the last decades are going to be extended further. Because we seem to be governed by pathologically fearful, demented old...
Additionally, the US will be involved for similar sharing of data in the future.
Sorry for the rant, but it is what it is. Without any accountability whatsoever.
No single decision should be taken as proof that dictatorship is good.
Amusing attempt. For one example, Silicon Valley is embarrassing most of the rest of the world when it comes to artificial intelligence and autonomous tech. China is at least five years behind on autonomous, by their own admission - which is why all of their tech giants had to set up shop in SV to work on autonomous.
"The talent needed to give Chinese startups an edge in autonomous vehicles can’t be found in Beijing or Shanghai."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-24/to-find-c...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tencent-holdings-autonomo...
But if you read industry journals and look at the data, you'd see that the complete opposite is true.
The GP makes a legitimate point that China's progressive policies are helping to propel the country forward. In the US, progress toward the industries of the future is happening despite government policies, not because of them.
And yet coal plants are shutting down and production slowing.
Most of that "committed" has been throwing some money at research for political reasons, but I don't think there has been a REAL political effort to push coal for much of it as much as gather some votes with some funding and vocal support .... and just let the chips fall where they may.
I think there's a vast range of possibilities when it comes to "support" from elected officials and "control" of a market or such.
So?
In any democracy government is going to lag the population/private sector when it comes to basically everything because you need more agreement before doing anything than you do in a private cooperation or authoritarian government system so the government winds up deadlocked or going back and fourth on an issue until a strong consensus emerges.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/31/the-media-is-telling-on...
The beancounters who make the decisions see that renewables are now the cheaper option.
We've even seen cases where plans for cheap gas peaker plants have been scrapped because doing it with batteries is cheaper.
Tesla isn't having a great look on Wall Street, but that's because investors priced them as a tech company instead of a car manufacturer. They're having demand issues, but they'll adjust and markets will adjust the way they price Tesla shares. They still had no trouble raising funds despite serious new direct competition.
Solar is making huge international wins from cheaper, non-domestic manufacturers, including a few of the first massive installations to come in cheaper than coal.
Immigration is a real issue, of course, but a lot of companies have adjusted by opening R&D offices in Vancouver to be close to the border and the time zone of US tech offices.
When you have cheap storage in the form of coal or oil barrels, it makes sense to just use energy whenever. But that will change - people will change their behaviors and business processes to adapt to the new conditions. Energy-expensive activities will become asynchronous - programmed to run whenever energy is cheap. Guaranteed energy - knowing you'll have a certain amount of kWh to spend at a specific time - will be expensive, and will be mostly used for prioritizing when the production is low.
Once your real base load drops enough, you won't need much storage to keep up even when production is abnormally low. Keeping a coal plant for the rare situations in which storage isn't enough, simply won't be economical. A natgas plant is more likely.
"What we need for this fluctuating renewable energy in the electricity mix is not baseload. Baseload is poison for our electricity transition in Germany," -- Thorsten Herdan, a director general for energy policy at the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
"The idea of there being an average or 'base' electricity load, doesn't make sense. Let alone having this sort of big, slow-changing power station to meet that load," -- CSIRO Energy Director Dr Glenn Platt.
"Technology has moved on from base load, and now you want flexible power. And that's what demand management, batteries and pumped hydro is," -- Professor Andrew Blakers, director of the ANU Centre for Sustainable Energy Systems.
And reports like Brattle Group's "Advancing Past “Baseload” to a Flexible Grid", and a few more which I have forgotten the name of.
And of course, knowing about the tech (IoT and such) that enables real-time communication of energy prices. And finally, my own guess that people will change their behaviour if it hits their wallet.
Sorry if I misread or got the arguments wrong.
I could answer you by writing a very lengthy essay, but I do not have the time or motivation to do that. Instead, if what they are saying is true why does Germany has 7 outs of 10 of the worst CO2 producing sources in the EU all of them are coal power plants?
https://infographic.statista.com/normal/chartoftheday_17582_...
The answer is: German mass hysteria made the country to turn off its nuclear power plants (you know, the other type of base load power plant that does not produce CO2) while not having any other option because renewables are not going to give you enough power. As a result they run on coal.
Lets add to the mix of the price of doing that:
So to sum it up, Germany produces the most CO2 in the EU and having the most expensive energy price by a large margin. This happens when you try to bend reality to your ideology instead of facing the challenges of our world and try to solve it.
It should be clear at this stage that without serious advencement in storing energy you cannot have a green solution to our energy needs. My prediction to the future, we are going to use solar + nuclear in the future because the combination of these two gives the best option of humanity and also because these work in a setup when you need the energy in space.
What are you referring to here?