I've stopped flying to conferences for climate change reasons
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People spend thousands to go to a conference and the stated benefit is to hear a few talks that are definitely recorded and to have a handful of useful conversations.
Let's be honest: many people at conferences just see them as a way to have the company pay for you to get out of the office and go on a semi-vacation. I know I've gone to things with that mindset before.
Don't get me wrong it's not the events that are the issue, it's how far we travel to them. I'm sure 90% of the benefit could be had by going to local meetups and watching the big conferences online.
Developers and 'practitioners' are typically background noise to the main purpose, unless of course they have influence on the decision makers.
This is even truer in the scale of the really big players closing deals in the millions+.
And invariably when you know dozens/hundreds of people in the same field somebody usually needs some work done & is more likely to give that work to somebody they met in person vs someone anonymous off of the internet.
The "do good work" part is where you turn this into a snowball & get recommended around.
So yeah, networking plays such a big part that I really prefer to meet people from all over the world (or at least all over Europe) once per year and not from the same pool of ~1000-5000 in my area.
None of that is served by local meetups / watching talks online.
The clearest benefit of conferences for sponsors is the potential lead between frontline-but-backoffice workers who work on a particular topic to the decision-makers behind them who can influence purchasing. Being present at conferences fosters passing familiarity of developers with the product, which helps conversations that occur between those developers and their bosses later: the emails from the higher-ups that ask "what do you think about Product?", and the off-the-cuff gut assessments that follow. Irrespective of the developer's initial reaction, name recognition of the product sticks around and often makes it to later rounds of evaluation and assessment.
Sure, you can attend talks... However "magical" things happen when you get people with different skills all talking as equals. It's the opposite of mob mentality, where each person in a group adds to the collective intelligence and power to see further.
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And yes, I just got back from Circle City Con in which I gave a talk about "SigInt for the masses: Building and Using a Signals Intelligence Platform for Less than $150". For me, it was a 1hr drive. But still, watching a video or making one online != in person.
My talk is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hyq6_IZ-2fE
My repo (including scripts, printables, presentation) is here: https://gitlab.com/crankylinuxuser/siginttablet
I agree that developer conferences may be wasteful, but don't paint non-conference travel with that brush.
You're saying that like it's a bad thing. I find that these "semi-vacations" do a lot to recharge my batteries, which is very helpful to my productivity in the long run.
I'm sure 90% of the benefit could be had by going to local meetups and watching the big conferences online.
I would say more like 50 percent. The other 50 percent comes in the form of (vitally important) F2F interactions. Which are why, time and time again -- remote interactions are found to be "just not the same" as in-person interactions.
Nothing's wrong with semi-vacations. But we might as well be open about it and provide an actual vacation and do it in a less carbon intensive way.
Let's say if a company instead of paying for a conference, just gave you a few days off and cash in hand. How would you spend it?
To be honest, at least once a year I'd probably go to a technical conference.
On the train I can work all the way, stretch my legs when I want, use WiFi / 4G, and bring as many liquids as I like. The environmental benefits are a bonus on top.
I wish more of Europe was accessible directly via Eurostar from London, but I'm quite happy with Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam for now.
(I'll be attending https://opensourceawards.org/ - come say hi!)
If you hate reservations or are too disorganised to book one for a busy train, but also dislike being disturbed by someone who does have a reservation and wants you to move, most train operators have some rule about which parts of their trains aren't reserved, you can find that out and then travel in the unreservable part of the train. Finding a seat there won't be any easier, but you won't be asked to move later.
It is interesting how trains are offering better services even as planes suck more over time. Ten years ago knowing where to find power sockets in the Standard class 444 series (next to the cab at the far end from First class) made the difference between charging devices and going without, now almost every train has power sockets and/or USB, free WiFi (not _good_ WiFi, you won't be streaming video - but it'll let you check email and read Hacker News) and air conditioning.
There are other suffixes, but they relate to the layout of seating in a carriage and apparently almost all trains have "airline" style according to the nomenclature of whoever decides these things.
It used to be really easy. Reserved seats had a paper ticket stuck in the back. Virgin trains switched to a small LED display on the edge of the luggage rack. Rather than have a single word like "Vacant" it has a scrolling message. As do reserved seats. So you have to peer at every single display as the text slowly scrolls past to figure out where you can sit. I don't know if this is gross incompetence or part of their ongoing efforts to discourage unbooked travel.
Paper tickets can't be updated and so in some cases they reflect no longer accurate information. This is especially misleading for long distance services where many reservations may happen after the service departs from its origin.
No affiliation, just been using it to help plan all sorts of travel since I stopped flying in 2011 (although I have to say the best way to travel long distance in Europe is by bicycle, if you can make the time).
I would ride the trainmore if it were quicker and a 4-5 hour flight or 18 hour drive didnt take 40 hours on a train.
That's an experience I'm generally willing to pay extra for vs flying, but unfortunately in America the opportunities to take advantage of trains are lacking if you live outside the Northeast Corridor, as I now do.
Sleepers are appreciated on planes enough that they charge a lot for them (a 12+ hour long haul in business class is mostly sleep, in economy it’s watch whatever movie you can find).
Beijing to Western Europe via Moscow could technically be done by train. The first leg is 8 hours which should count as a long haul.
Isn't it worth comparing not only the financial cost, but the ethical one and the environmental impact of decisions?
Edit: also, you can get stuff done on your notebook in the train, but often times not on a plane b/c of the excessive check-in, gating, boarding, security, customs ceremony
On the other hand those places also have high speed rail.
It's true that a 1.5h flight would take me 4h, but most of that extra time is universal to all travel. An equivalent 1h30m train ride would take me 3h20m. Not that much more favorable.
But to say there's no "low-cost railway" is plainly false. Bavaria has probably one of the best train systems in the entire world, and it's not expensive by any means.
If I just want to travel in the same Bundesland where I am, there are plenty of cheap options, that's true.
- flying: 120 EUR from Munich, getting up at 4-5, arriving at 9
- train: have to go the day before, have an additional night in the hotel (70 EUR) and THEN the train is more expensive than flying anyway. Maybe not so important if the company pays, but still not fun to argue (depending on the company).
I.e. the chance of it having a school class in it is like winning the lottery ;)
The 75 Euro deal sounds really cheap too.
I've hardly ever had any customers not in Munich or in the Nuremberg (area) that weren't so far away from the station that you'd need a taxi, so you can drive anyway. Especially for conferences. Usually Munich or Nuremberg.
https://ps.bahn.de/preissuche/preissuche/psc_angebotssuche.r...
I hope we will find a better one, e.g. online conferences or putting a tax specifically on business travel on behalf of medium to large sized companies.
Our offspring will be Earth-poor, suffering the consequences of our frivolous "spending."
In my mind a carbon tax is a wealth transfer from the present to the future. I think it's a good solution because we aren't exacting fair price for our activities. I read a great book once in which future generations sued the shoes off their elders for not paying fair price for their climate-changing activities.
Wealth inequality should be addressed. We shouldn't hamstring other solutions just because it also is a problem - we can work on them in parallel. I appreciate you bringing it up though, it is a good thing to be aware of.
That seems reasonable to me and while it will make flying to Europe too expensive for some, it wouldn't make traveling to Europe something only the rich can afford.
For a typical family flying from middle America to Orlando, it would probably mean one less day at Disney.
My personal hope is to liaise with some of the best researchers in the world regarding offsetting and have an approved offsetting scheme, which can be applied anywhere, that updates based on the current best understanding; we would then bring this capability into a newly built travel tracker (it's closer to a prototype atm).
Please let me know if this is something you'd find interesting.
My comment was based on the cost to directly pull CO2 out of the air at industrial quantities, not indirect methods like planting trees.
https://co2.myclimate.org/en/flight_calculators/new
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2018/06/team-provides-firs...
If you massively raise prices for everyone to fly, less fuel gets burned, and the people burning the fuel are paying into a pool that ideally would be used to alleviate inequality on any other front.
If you want to tax the rich, just tax the rich based on them being rich; don't greenwash it.
I agree. The question is who are these 1% of people. Carbon tax means that they are the richest 1%. I hope our society has enough imagination to consider other options.
Targeting airlines might be the wrong place. Perhaps the fuel vendors are the ones that should bear the cost of removing all of the CO2 that's going to end up in the air from every bit of fuel they sell.
However, if you want to go Hamburg-Munich on an ICE (better than flying imo IF (!) everything works) and you do not have purchased a "BahnCard" and you do not book far in advance then it is very expensive.
2nd class ICE ride on that track in 2 weeks is 153€, flex, one way. For that money you get a return flight.
If you can be 100% sure to make it to one exact train you can go for ca. 50€. [1] Risk of failing to catch that train is pretty high though.
[1] https://reiseauskunft.bahn.de/bin/query.exe/dn?revia=yes&exi...
The flexible plane ticket is probably 3-10x the price, depending on the airline.
There are regular offers between capitals and big cities across countries, travels I did from Stuttgart: Stuttgart-Paris 40€, Copenhagen-Stuttgart 80€ (the train got in a Ferry and then the travel continued until Hamburg!), Stuttgart Amsterdam 80€. Sometimes traveling to far places like Spain must go over Paris, and each country has their own train network with more or less adaptation.
The quality of the public train got worse in Germany during the last 10 years and it is not an infrastructure thought to be run as a business with profits, but it is still one of the best transportation services for long distance.
The only problems with the train is visiting remote areas where it is necessary doing to or three train changes, which increases the chance of delays.
A plane ticket from Finland to Japan would go from ~1000€ into 1020€ if it would pay the same CO2 emission prices as coal power pays. So basically nothing.
We should focus on reducing the big CO2 emission sources instead of these. But it is understandable why people do things like this. They are really easy way to signal one cares about the environment, even though they are basically meaningless as the same person enjoys bit lower electricity prices due to cheap coal that pumps way more CO2 than the flights ever would.
To be honest I don't know how I personally can focus on big CO2 sources. But I know how to stop flying.
Here in the UK, the average household used 4,648kWh of electricity in 2010. The industry average in 2008 was 527g CO2e/kWh, giving average emissions from electricity use of 2449kg per household. The above figures are falling rapidly due to efficiency and decarbonisation.
A round-trip from LHR to JFK produces about 1800kg CO2e.
Reducing my electricity consumption by 10% would just barely offset the carbon emissions of a short haul trip within Europe. A frequent air traveller could easily produce an extra 10 tonnes a year without really noticing.
For example, according to the Carbon Footprint Factsheet published on the UoM website[1], beef is only 6.61 pounds (~= 3kg) CO2 per serving (4oz ~= 0.12kg). You'd have to eat a lot of meat to produce an amount of CO2 comparable to that caused by a single flight.
Newer cars in EU are emitting around 110g CO2/km[3], so the Helsinki-Okinawa trip would result in an 8157km*110g/1000 ~= 900kg of CO2. Still less than a flight. However, according to Wikipedia[4], the flight CO2 emissions in EU are at ~100g/km per passenger which contradicts the co2.myclimate.org calculator unless the global efficiency figures are much worse than EU. Flights also emit nitrogen oxides which have a stronger effect at higher altitudes.
A carbon tax enforced by the governments would be the most effective measure[2] AFAIK.
[0]: https://co2.myclimate.org/en/portfolios?calculation_id=19789...
[1]: http://css.umich.edu/factsheets/carbon-footprint-factsheet
[2]: https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/wiki/faq_carbonpricing
[3]: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars_...
[4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_aviati...
I also agree that carbon tax, or universally applied emission markets, would be the best. Coal power would be absolutely hammered as people prefer eating meat and flying instead of marginally cheaper elecricity.
Also, low number of respondents and considering the survey went through his own twitter with a Climate Code idea, probably very biaised sample.
However, I'd totally favour a company with a flight offsetting policy. Can anyone point me some?
Though I agree face to face is definitely a different experience. My point is maybe crossing oceans is not mandatory to learn from one another. A while ago people didn't had the choice, yet they were able to do much in all science.
Maybe once Starlink launches, one could treat it as a remote office. Definitively more comfortable than working through a red-eye.
Certainly taking the train to a conference is better than flying, if that's the choice you have. Concentrating on conferences local to you is a good idea. Attending remotely sort of works, but it's really not the same as being there. It's better if you are with other people at your end, watching together.
I get that people want to have a sense of agency, but framing the problem as a question of individual choice is counterproductive.
> Aviation is not a significant contributor to global warming
Nothing is. There is no low hanging fruit here. Any given industry has at most X% of impact. We need lots and lots of adjustments across the board. Including in aviation.
> but framing the problem as a question of individual choice is counterproductive.
It's not either/or. We need both. We need every help we can get.
I think the way to get society-wide change is for the government to either mandate or incentivize it at a systemic level. This “what can I do as an individual to make change” stuff seems like either virtue signalling or irrationally directed anxiety.
That doesn't mean that a single human can't change anything. Every single action, that reduces CO2 emissions (or sequesters already emitted CO2) is a step forward. But it will be too little, too late and the only effective course of action would be legislative in nature.
The only way that will happen is if people like you vote in a government that will do that.
Not voting because your vote by itself has an infinitesimal effect on the outcome is like a smoker who ignores the health risks and keeps chain smoking because each individual cigarette only has a negligible chance of causing lung cancer, and thus concludes that smoking is not actually dangerous.
Incidentally, I do vote; I just don't do so thinking my individual vote matters. It matters that lots of people all vote, but this reinforces my original point that some kind of structural incentive or policy is needed to get lots of people to all do something.
However, I’ve found that human face-to-face interaction is more productive vs email/Skype and wonder if there’s potential missed opportunities if we were to completely forego in-person conferences.
The bar soap better be awesome.
Also going to some new interesting places.
And don't underestimate how important meeting new people and networking is! I would say that's probably my biggest motivation for going to conferences these days.
Given that I actively prefer reading on a screen, I'm genuinely not sure if this is an apt comparison. My e-books have infinitely large margins for annotation, instant excerpting and customisable formatting. YouTube videos can be paused while I Google something, rewound if I've missed something and played on fast-forward if the speaker is needlessly slow.
This part seem much more important, compared to trying to offset plane travel by buying carbon credits.
[1]: https://mobile.twitter.com/shubhamjainco/status/110244951253...
And according to these numbers, a plane is more efficient than a car with 2 occupants. Average vehicle occupancy varies around 1.5 people.
It doesn't make the plane a better way to travel, of course. It just shows that individual cars need to be proscribed just as much as airplanes.
Flying e.g. 6k miles is reasonably easy to do in a year. I think it is easy to not think about the impact as it all happens in a few gos.
Driving 6k miles takes a long time and would be felt more acutely. It is easier to switch to cleaner forms of energy for this travel and one may be more inclined to reduce this energy usage as it is also a huge time sink.
A commute of 40 miles per day is ~9600 miles per year.
I'd wager there are more people who commute 30 minutes each way by car than there are who go on an annual holiday to Europe :)
Of course, reducing either would be a good thing.
That's a somewhat short commute by modern American standards too.
Honestly, we'd all be better off if we stopped driving to work and made our cities denser and used trains to get around, had more/better train service between nearby cities, and then took annual holidays in Europe on Airbus A380 aircraft that were configured with only economy seating (700+ passengers per plane).
If we're making great efforts to even slow down the acceleration of greenhouse gas emissions, I find it odd to come up with ways to rationalize emitting 2-3x the result of a very long commute. Especially when the endpoint is a programming/software conference.
That is, of course, over-simplifying, but O'reilly's conferences line of business is an interesting example of a non-energy company who's business model is existentially threatened by a meaningful response to climate change.
Internet debate artists will endlessly get caught up in the false-binary of banning international flights or not, but functionally, from O'reilly's perspective, there's no meaningful difference between an outright ban and an order-of-magnitude price increase. Either way the conference business craters.
Can they "pivot to video"?
Do they feel ethically obligated to try?
Some thoughts:
1. Climate Code would be a second code for most conferences. Would it be the last, or should we anticipate conferences in 2022 needing 4 or 5 or 6 codes addressing various issues?
2. Will attendees be required to affirm & agree with the climate code (as they’re asked to follow the typical CoC)? If so, what do you do with people who disagree that conferences tracking their “food-miles” is of critical importance to averting climate catastrophe?
3. These codes of conduct will presumably dictate where resources and effort should be allocated to combat climate change. These resources are limited, meaning if you put resources towards tracking food-miles, you’re not putting them towards something else. Who will decide how to allocate these limited resources to achieve maximal ROI in terms of combatting climate change? Will it be a global team of PhD climate and political scientists, or a bunch of unqualified randos on a google doc? If the latter, how can anyone reasonably expect such a group to come up with a sensible plan? Assuming imminent climate catastrophe, it would seem the consequences of misallocation of resources would be dire.
I understand that people feel very passionately about this subject and see this as an end-of-the-world, holy crusade sort of subject. However, treating things as holy crusades will typically lead to bad results, such as virtue signalling taking the place of meaningful work & alienating people who don’t hold the same opinion. Let’s think carefully before we add another layer of moral bureaucracy to our professional community.
When a tree grows, it extracts some CO2 from the atmoaphere and stores it in its biomass. When it dies, this CO2 goes back into the atmosphere. When we use fuel for flying, we release hundreds of kilograms of CO2 into the atmosphere (for a short flight of a single person!), which have been stored over the course of hundreds of millions of years. A tiny bit of a tree that you plant today might become fossilized, but even if that happens it will only store an incredibly small amount of the carbon that is consumed. It is quantitatively completely impossible to undo that by planting trees.
The only solution is, if at all possible, to stop flying, and use other means of transport, like electrical trains and buses. We can't have both mass air transportation and an alive planet.
I had this interesting idea of "economic entropy". In analogy with statistical physics, a macrostate is what and how much is produced by the economy (consumable commodities), and a microstate is how it is produced (all the intermediate supply chains). So to one macrostate can correspond a large number of microstates, logarithm of number of which is the entropy of the macrostate.
Now assume we have two completely independent (not involved in trade) economies, and each of these is in some macrostate and with the corresponding entropy. And we enable the trade. Then over time, we might end up in the same macrostate (they together still produce exactly the same amount of goods), but now the entropy of the entire system is much higher, because there is much more possibilities of how the supply chain works (they are not confined into one of the two previous economies).
Now imagine that for some reason, cost of travel and transportation is really economically negligible. Then microstates with long path of transport for products correspond to same macrostates as those with short path of transport for products. Even more, they will be statistically favored, since global economy has high entropy.
In practice, the high entropy state looks like: You have several multinational companies with sites in the same city, and their executives fly around the world to convince other executives of multinationals to buy their products (be part of their supply chain). The corresponding low entropy state would be that each city has its own set of companies, which all together form a single supply chain.
The point is, historically, we came from low entropy state into a high entropy state, and we are now screwed. We know the low entropy state would be more efficient, but we have no idea how to get there. But getting there would greatly reduce transportation, which is one of the biggest contributors to CO2 emissions.
Otherwise, travel as much as you can, while it increases your output.
However, I think it's unreasonable to expect everyone to do that on their own. For every person doing an ecologically responsible thing (taking trains instead of planes, taking public transit instead of driving, etc), there is just such a huge magnitude of people doing the "wrong" thing to cancel it out, largely because that (from a short-term-pragmatic-standpoint, the "wrong" thing is better) or at least cheaper. If you value your time at all, flying across the country is cheaper, meat is readibly available and inexpensive (and typically taste good), and driving to work is substantially easier than biking.
I don't know anything about ecology so I'll admit that I might regret writing this entire comment in a year, but it seems to me that the only way we're going to make a dent in climate change is to a) create technology that provides an experience that is competitive with the dirty version of something (electric cars could be a good example), or b) to start artificially taxing things that are really hurting the environment. If we started charging an extra dollar-per-gallon tax on gasoline, it would probably discourage people from driving as much, and put more economic incentive on point a).
I can commend someone not flying to conferences anymore, but I am afraid to say that I dont have the same self-discipline.
So instead of continuing to widen roads, we need to build more trains, and change municipal development processes so that cities are made denser.
Instead of having short-hop air travel, we need to fund high-speed rail.
And yes, taxing things to change consumption patterns is a big part of this. Slap a big tax on gasoline/diesel and jet fuel and use that to fund HSR, for instance.
The only thing stopping American politicians from vastly reducing CO2 emissions is the will of the electorate. The top-down political solution actually comes from the bottom-up - by persuading people to vote for candidates who support decarbonisation. You only have one president, but he was chosen for office by 62,979,636 voters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...
Fuel taxes are pretty high already. Increasing them will hurt a lot of people very badly.
It's actually becoming a problem; our fuel taxes haven't risen as much as inflation, and our road infrastructure is funded largely by fuel taxes.
Get rid of coal. Take some of the ~$6bn/yr that you currently spend subsidising the fossil fuel industries and deliver a package of job-creating tax credits in Wyoming and West Virginia.
Do whatever it takes to remove minimum lot sizes, single-use zoning and minimum parking requirements from zoning laws. I'm sure that the Supreme Court could be persuaded to change their mind on Euclid vs Ambler. Maybe people would drive less and walk more if suburbs weren't legally required to be unwalkable.
Reallocate some of the ~$20bn/yr you spend on agricultural subsidies to disincentivise cattle feedlot operations and incentivise soil sequestration.
Impose gradually escalating taxes on road and domestic aviation fuel and spend the revenues on mass transit infrastructure. Offer low-income citizens a rebate.
Seriously, I agree with your end goal in the reduction of man-made CO2 emissions. I even agree, in spirit, with items 3 and 4 above. What I don't agree with is the sudden dismantling of industries and punitive taxation.
I believe CO2 emissions will be cut as man's technologies and economies gradually evolve. I also believe that the Earths weather operates wholly independently of man's industrial activity at this time.
Plenty of other countries have already done it. There's literally nothing stopping Americans from following suit if Americans decide that it's the right thing to do.
>I believe CO2 emissions will be cut as man's technologies and economies gradually evolve.
If the IPCC are right, that'll be far too late. They say we need ambitious action now. They could be wrong, but is that a gamble we want to take? Is it worth risking a disaster-movie scenario so that we can keep driving big trucks and prop up some industries with no future anyway? If the IPCC are right and we do nothing, how will we explain it to our grandchildren? "Sorry kids, we ruined your lives because we thought that 99.9% of scientists were wrong?". "Sorry kids, we ruined your lives because we couldn't be bothered getting the bus?". Is that how we want to be remembered?
All the other ideas are fantastic.
Some climate-related policies are going to be inherently painful, so we should seek wherever possible to mitigate that pain, spread it around equitably or ration it out over time. Getting people to transition to more sustainable lifestyles is obviously the goal, but uprooting a bunch of low-income workers has terrible optics and burns political capital that could be better used elsewhere. You're aiming for diffuse costs and concentrated benefits.
The calculus is slightly weird in the US due to what I will politely describe as a unique political culture, but you can frame a lot of it in American political grammar. Call it the "war on weather" or something, appeal to the self-image of America as the world's moral leadership, sell it as every citizen's patriotic duty and use the term "common sense" a lot. Emphasise how it'll build a long-term economic advantage over China. If you think immigration is bad now, just wait until half of South America becomes uninhabitable. If we pass this R&D bill, we'll have a monopoly on this technology in the future. Green policies are eminently achievable in the US political landscape, but they need to be thoroughly decoupled from liberal rhetoric.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5202108/carbon-tax-canada-2019-re...
If we don't, you know that those who politically oppose us will simply call us hypocrites: Russia doesn't use careful logic, and even though pointing out hypocrisy a logical fallacy, most leaders, both government and business, will continue to use it, because maintaining power always feels like the right way forward.
Basically we have to practice conspicuous ethics because there will always be someone saying it's useless behind you, even people who understand that climate change is real.
And even then, it might be a wash. We have to hope for a global "oh-shit" moment in the next few years if we are to have any hope of handling climate change. It doesn't mean that I won't be conspicuous and hope to help create like-minded individuals.
Otherwise it's just the prison dilemma game and tragedy of the commons.
I'm hardly this big advocate for a capitalism, but your statements seem a bit reductionist.
It only takes a small percentage of the population to make a systematic change[0], I hope for humanity we are reaching a tipping point on this. People living their life in the correct way is spreading awareness and they are putting their money where their mouth is. These people and the youth climate strike may be our last chance. Also, the environment is the number one issue for the democratic party in the 2020 election. But, I do agree eventually these people making these changes will have to drive government agendas and the real mass changes will have to happen that way.
[0]http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of...
I mean, I don't own a car, am mostly vegetarian (I eat fish occasionally), and take public transit nearly everywhere, so it's not like I don't try and do my part (though I do fly a lot, so that probably cancels out all my savings).
Part of the problem with writing comments like this is that I do think some of the the issues causing climate-change to become a problem are due to a specific political party, and HN typically gets a bit flag-heavy whenever you start getting into overt politics.
On that topic AWS really need to beef up its game!
“Just purchasing more solar energy in a grid that already has lots of solar generation will not result in zero emissions,”
“To guarantee 100 percent emissions reductions from renewable energy, power consumption needs to be matched with renewable generation on an hourly basis,”
https://energy.stanford.edu/news/100-renewables-doesn-t-equa...
At one point they will have to stop with "renewable" and accept nuclear and the low carbon label (on an hourly or minute basis).
Hence, it makes no difference. I love going to conferences and don't feel guilty about anything.
Talking about non-solutions might feel emotionally satisfying, yet it does nothing at all to really address the problem. Worse yet, it pulls the conversation away from real solutions.
Shifting the goalpost? Getting near net zero increase would be sufficient to avoid an extinction event.
> pulls the conversation away from real solutions
Do you have a real solution? If not, why badmouth something constructive just because it is not constructive enough? If yes, why don't you post it?
--- start quote [1] ---
This is the largest, dirtiest coal mine in Europe. It's responsible for 100 Million Tons of CO2 emissions per year.
That's 3168 kg of CO2 per second.
--- end quote ---
I will be flying to Barcelona from Stockholm in June. Some sites show me the three-hour flight will cost 616kg of CO2. Is it per person? I don't know. Let's assume per person (even though I'm pretty sure it's for the entire flight).
In that same time that mine will have released 60×60×3.5×3168 = almost 40 million kg of CO2. Enough for every single person on that flight to take over 200 such flights to be anywhere on the same level of CO2 emmissions.
[1] https://twitter.com/JoanieLemercier/status/11113348483990528...
It is per person, going by plane takes roughly as much as going by car if it is over land. Stockholm to Barcelona is according to Google 2788 km. Typical car takes 1.2 litre per 10km, so the whole trip would be around 300 litres of petrol. 1 litre of petrol is around 2.4 kg CO2, so over 700 kg CO2 for the entire trip.
A typical car takes 4-5 people. A typical plane takes 200-400 people. So 700 kg for the entire trip wouldn't be per person.
If humanity and all of our stuff evaporated from this planet it would take 50,000 to 75,000 years for atmospheric CO2 to drop by 100ppm.
These are all non-solutions. Even if we become extinct and all of our technology, buildings and power-plants rot away and dissolve, you are still looking at tens of thousands of years.
None of these things, individually or collectively are better than humanity not being on this planet. Which means they can’t possibly produce results any faster than that.
Transportation is the biggest single source of emissions in the US, so it is entirely reasonable to make it a high-priority target.
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emis...
I have an open question that nobody has answered yet:
If all of humanity evaporated from this planet tomorrow, it would take 50,000 to 75,000 years for atmospheric CO2 to drop by 100ppm.
We know this to a high degree of certainty because of ice core atmospheric data going back 800,000 years. In other words, way before any of our technology even existed.
So, the natural “no humans anywhere” rate of change is in the order of 100ppm per 50,000 years.
Now the question:
How does your <insert any idea you care to test here> msnage to improve on this rate of change a thousand-fold when it is but a rounding error when compared to the planet without humanity at all?
Simple example: Convert the entire world to the most optimal forms of renewable energy!
OK, if all of humanity LEFT THE PLANET and we took ALL OF OUR TECHNOLOGY WITH US, it would take 50,000 to 75,000 years for a useful change in atmospheric CO2.
This renewable energy shift is an insignificant change when compared to a planet empty of us and our crap. Which means that, if there’s a reduction of atmospheric CO2 at all it can’t possibly happen any faster than 100ppm per ~50,000 years.
Anyone claiming otherwise needs to explain the magical methods they will use to violate the laws of physics as we know them.
BTW, to whoever made the comment: I don’t have to know the solution to a problem in order to recognize the problem as well as to identify non-solutions. I don’t know how to make humans breathe under water, but I can tell that eating more fish is not a solution.
You see impact of up to 75k years from your and my emissions. Essentially any pollution you and I cause can be considered permanent from a human time perspective. If we were to stop emitting today, it's not certain where equilibrium would settle, nor what tipping points will pass as temperatures increase.
You conclude there's no point bothering and to keep doing near permanent damage? Just keep on shitting in the pool until it's unusable? This is concluding there's no point investing in a pension.
Personally, I conclude we need to reach carbon neutral as soon as possible - to stop making the problem worse. Very simply put 100ppm is going to be better for humanity and other species than 150ppm or 200ppm etc, so stop as soon as possible. To not pass the irreparable tipping points, to stop adding fuel to the fire.
Not as soon as convenient, or as soon as affordable, but as possible. Mobilise countries as though on a war footing: rationing - of flying, of petrol, of food, of consumer goods and clothing, quotas, enforcement, require industries to stop producing some thing and produce something else instead. ALL of these were done in WW2, and no laws of physics were broken. Now consider human population growth, so probably add child rationing too.
Personally I don't see that mobilisation happening soon. Based upon the pathetic progress over the last 30 or 40 years I think it almost inevitable - the market can't solve it. Very probably not in my lifetime, as humanity will probably need to be much closer to a clear abyss of impending disaster. I do think it the inheritance my children can very likely look forward to, and a society that's much less free and may have far less opportunity. Because their parent's and grandparent's generations couldn't be arsed.
Nevertheless two easy first steps toward stop making the problem worse are carbon neutral electricity generation, and reducing flying. No magic or disingenuous claims.
I want us to have a look at the real science behind this problem and have an honest discussion about how to deal with it.
For example, there is no way to dispute that a planet earth without humanity has a natural atmospheric CO2 reduction rate of about 100ppm per 50,000 years (the range goes as far as 100/75,000).
This is, to repeat myself, indisputable. In order to challenge this assertion someone would have to prove that the 800,000 years of atmospheric composition data is flawed in some way. And they would have to prove how ice core atmospheric composition testing is flawed.
When I started to read on this subject I found this data. As an engineer, my first inclination was to seek information on both the accuracy and percentage error in these tests. I read papers and articles on the subject of atmospheric composition testing using ice core sample. I went at it skeptical as can be, convinced the errors had to be huge. Well, I ended-up discovering I was wrong. The techniques, methodology and data are extremely accurate and reliable.
Which means the conversation HAS to start there:
100 ppm/50,000 years, or 0.002 ppm/year, or 2 ppm/thousand years
These are scary numbers because of what they mean: If we are going to claim to be able to do better than 2 ppm in a THOUSAND years we have a HUGE burden of proof to pass. We have to explain how it is that we are going to affect planetary scale changes at a rate massively quicker than the planet has historically managed on its own. And that, I am afraid, might very well be in the realm of magic, not science.
This is why we already know that supplanting all power generation across the entire planet with the most optimal forms of renewable energy generation (in other words, imagine the most fantastically good forms of renewables and that's what we install) we won't fix the problem. Not only will atmospheric CO2 concentration not come down, it would continue to increase forever.
In other words: Anything we do that is less than all of humanity evaporating from this planet is but a rounding error in this problem. Even if humanity evaporates, that means we go back to a decrease of 2 ppm/1,000 years --AT BEST.
I am not trying to be negative. I am trying to be a realist about this. Destroying entire economies for sake of what has become religious belief is wrong and pointless.
Take this 2050 goal some are talking about. OK. Perfect. We know that atmospheric CO2 accumulation has been happening at about 2 ppm per year. Yeah, that's on us. Maybe not all of it, after all, this was happening before humanity existed on this planet. Let's just say we are in for 50% of that, or 1 ppm per year.
OK, then. We want to flatten the curve by 2050. What does that mean exactly? Do we want to negate our contribution only or do we want to negate our contribution as well as the natural rate?
In the first case we are talking about: 1 ppm/yr * 31 years = 31 ppm In the second instance the number is doubled: 2 ppm/yr * 31 years = 61 ppm
Let's take the lower number: We want to "take back" 31 ppm in, well, 31 years
What's the annual rate of change? 1 ppm per year
OK, let's get rid of all of humanity and everything we ever built on this planet. An alien species helps us by teleporting everything into space by next Monday. Gone.
What's the natural rate of CO2 reduction then? 0.002 ppm per year
Oops.
We need to chip away at a minimum of 31 ppm during the next 31 years and even if humanity evaporates from this planet all we can get out of the deal is 0.062 ppm? That is the MAXIMUM we'll get without an single human on this planet and none of our technology, buildings, power plants, ships, cars, trains, etc.?
Yup. I have yet to find a way to refute this conclusion.
In order to explain how we are going to achieve this goal by 2050 we have to explain how it is that we are going to do FIVE HUNDRED times better than the planet could if we do not exist. That's where, I think, all of these proposals out there are nonsense. Not taking a flight "to save the planet" is nonsense. Buying an electric car "to save the planet" is nonsense. Installing solar panels "to save the planet" is nonsense. There are other reasons to do these things, but let's stop lying about what they might be.
I could go deeper into this topic. I've done a lot of research in trying to get to the bottom of it. One of the issues we have is that it is political and career suicide for researchers to go against the religion this thing has become. If someone said what I am saying here they can kiss their research grants, university or lab job and career goodbye. The money and forces at play are corrupting real science.
My conclusion today is that the solution must be found in three areas:
- Massive reforestation. We need to restore our forests and plant trees everywhere possible. In a city like Los Angeles (and other cities) we need to make grass lawns illegal and require the planting of trees. Trees are a simple technology that convert CO2 into, well, a tree
- With extreme caution (because the unintended consequences can be catastrophic to humanity) we need to look into chemical means of CO2 sequestration. This is not simple. It might even be impossible due to the planetary scale (conservation of energy, etc.)
Anyhow. I am all for humanity becoming much greener and cleaner. For the right reasons. We have to do it. And we also need to be honest about the global warming problem and talk about real solutions not ways to make money and fix nothing.
Side thought: It is likely far easier to launch a global movement to plant trees like our lives depend on it (which might be true) than to get people behind not flying and massive infrastructure projects that would cripple some economies, not to mention the unintended consequences of such actions (how much MORE CO2 would we generate if nobody flew?)
That means 0.01 ppm per year (10 ppm per thousand years). This also frames the conversation with regards to what our contribution might actually be.
The challenge, of course, is that we are not going to erase humanity from the planet. Which means there will be some base number for the additional contribution to atmospheric CO2 accumulation no matter what we do.
In other words, it's 0.01 ppm/yr ONLY if we evaporate from the planet. With us on this blue marble the "new normal" is far higher than that, and unlikely to ever approach the "no humans on earth" rate.
This issue can be reasoned down to a few fundamental conclusions without engaging in anything more than simple analysis of the scale and timelines of the effects we are concerned with.
one conference per year - 23.9%
two to four conferences per year - 47.8%
Five plus conferences per year - 16.4%
And this begs the question about their sincerity about what they are proposing about climate change, do they actually mean it or do they just want to appease their political base.
People can do whatever they like on their own. We elect politicians to establish our public policy, not their personal policy.