After 38,000 layoffs, Wall Street wakes up to 'peak car'

Capitalism is exceedingly poor at accounting for negative externalities, and many armchair economists don't seem to even acknowledge negative externalities exist because they are a "hidden" cost not determined by the market and paid by third parties. Any economist worth their salt, of course, says that as a mechanism created specifically to solve coordination problems like this, it's the government's job to put a real price on negative externalities.

If we changed traffic laws (and automotive subsidies) in the US to make them more feasible in cities, I imagine small electric vehicles would take a huge dent out of the automotive industry here.

I drive even less than you do (6k for around 3 years), and bought new as well, but find the car super useful because of our toddler, Uber simply doesn’t do car seats well and the bus doesn’t go to the pediatrician.

We've been able to get by on GoGet and Car Next Door for the occasional trip to the shops (although we mostly get groceries delivered; it saves time and allows you to pre-plan what you need easier) or for a weekend away. Works out much much cheaper than owning a car.

12,000km per year in Uber’s or hire cars will cost you far more than $2500. Sounds like you’re the perfectly rational car owner. As are a lot of people, this isn’t isolated to US only.

The petrol cost is averaged and when I say AUD$60 every 2 months, it really depends on the trips we make and if we go see my in-laws.

I guess what's important is the trend, the first year we owned the car, we drove everywhere because we were living in the outer suburbs but then we moved closer to the city. So we barely touch the car these days.

We use it even less in winter as its too cold to go to the beach, so I can safely say that for the next 3 months we are probably going to be using the car once a week to go buy groceries at the supermarket that is located about 5km from where we live. So we will average 10km per week for the next 12 to 15 weeks. That would translate in maybe a full tank of gas if that.

All in all, if I average the cost of petrol over the last 3 years, it's probably close to the numbers I gave, plus or minus a few hundred dollars.

As for the insurance, we both have a clean driving record(no tickets ever), we don't drive a lot and we live in a very safe suburb and keep the car in a closed/locked garage overnight. We also have the lowest tier in terms of insurance and we wouldn't get much back if we were to total the car.

Finally, as for the current value of the car, I just had a quick look on google and those were the first numbers I could find. I presume that if we were to sell it we probably would get less maybe $AUD 3.5k.

But yeah, many time-sensitive events are able to be easily solved with our own cars. There's a flexibility that is absent when relying on public transit and ride-sharing. Does it worth the trade-off of maintaining your own vehicle and it's attendant issues? In my opinion, it is. For some others, it isn't. It would be better if cars can become a non-essential for everyone in the world though, or at least the urbanites. Less traffic jams for the rest of us.

If you can figure out how to bike, walk, or bus most of the time and your significant other can too, you get nearly all of that security with one vehicle per family and a lot of money to put towards other things.

That's the drive train, but the interior is a different thing. As modern cars are essentially computers on wheels, their UX will feel outdated and sluggish after five years tops (for what it's worth, even current top of the line cars have serious problems there), stuff like the n-th iteration of CarPlay or whatever wasn't updated for ages, navigation systems don't have upates any more... and that's only the electronic interior.

The "real life" interior aka dashboard plastics, veneers, seats, ... will be of exactly the same durability as with current ICE cars, which means after 10 years of regular usage the car is for all intents and purposes to be considered a beater.

In addition, spare parts are going to be a major issue. While the aftermarket is decent in supplying parts for common cars (you can still get original parts for VW vans), I wouldn't be so sure about "non-common" cars. Tesla doesn't even manage to supply their own garages with parts to fix customer vehicles at the moment.

All of this has to be considered when thinking about "useful life".

Having said that, electric cars are simple, so maybe there will be a luxury “100 year car” brand that removes all the planned obsolescence and provides repair parts / service indefinitely.

What!? I'm not following your logic. If there is a warrant for your arrest, and law enforcement is tracking your phone, law enforcement can simply come pick you up in a squad car.

Does that include depreciation? Even if you own the car outright, it seems to me that a proper cost accounting should include the cost of eventual replacement of the car.

> On the other hand to take an uber/lyft "only" to-and-from work each weekday

Yes, I think if your daily commute depends on a car, ownership is the most cost effective model. But an increasing number of people are finding ways to commute in other ways.

Based on this I went without a car for about a year and used ride sharing services exclusively, but I found it to be more hassle for very minimal savings. (Some of the variables obviously depend on where you live though. ex: parking)

The fact of the matter is that owning a used car that's 5-10 years old actually isn't that expensive. I purchased my current car for $8k when it was ~6 years old, and did the same for the car before that. Repairs have been basically non-existent, just the normal oil change every year or two (I drive a few times a month).

I don't own a car outright - many people obviously do not - so that's another $400+ every month for a rapidly depreciating piece of equipment that will inevitably cost me additional money in maintenance and repairs in the years to come.

And of course there is insurance, gas and registration.

And once I'm spending this $1000/mo for the benefit of owning my very own car, I'd still be using ride shares or public transit anytime I'm going to consume alcohol.

Instead, I spend maybe $50/mo on transit, $100/mo on ride shares and another $200 or so every other month to rent a car for a weekend (and on those occasions, I get to pick the car).

Transportation, to me, is a minor line item in my budget. I never have to search for or pay for parking. I am never in a situation where I would be inclined to drive after drinking. My car can never be broken in to because it doesn't exist. It's actually a pretty sweet setup if you can pull it off.

I bike or ride the train much of the time (~10 miles). This is slower and has it's own costs, but also benefits. I work downtown and parking is not free. I find daily driving miserable (and I love cars). I rent a Home Depot truck whenever I need a truck, which is still probably less the $100 a year. Knowing I can get a ride in a pinch is just one more thing on the scales.

This makes operating a family of four with one small, aging car perfectly reasonable.

Friends and family from Texas and Arizona seem concerned we don't have 1.5 luxury vehicles per adult of course.

Tesla has an EV of $43B. GM has an EV of $135B.

What does 'auto' mean in this context?

I used to be quite bullish on Telsa...until I bought a 2019 Mazda 3 this past weekend. It is basically a Telsa that cost me $25K...Prior to this weekend I drove a Mazda 6 that I bought in 2006. While car shopping I came to realize that most of the things that made Telsa exciting are rapidly being integrated into standard consumer vehicles.

With Elon's seeming unsuitability for the role of car company CEO and if it is the case that Telsa doesn't have much of an edge over the competition, it is hard to see Telsa pulling through in the long haul.