Space firm founded by billionaire Paul Allen closing operations
reuters.com
reuters.com
Instead they pivoted to customizing their massive airframe to launching Norththrop's Pegasus XL rockets.
Editorializing I'd guess that Paul Allen's estate pushed the company to figure out if there was a short term commercialization opportunity with Northrop, found there wasn't, and is cutting their losses.
Tough to be a space faring startup without a billionaire sponsor bankrolling you as a passion project.
(1) https://spacenews.com/stratolaunch-abandons-launch-vehicle-p...
We seem to have this hubris that we'll be able to "detect and deflect" - both of which are unlikely with our current technology for any size dire enough to care about.
We don't even have the "detect" part in place - not in the way it needs to be. As more than a few recent incidents have shown, we're currently blind and a sitting duck, so to speak.
Even a relatively small strike, depending on where it landed, could potentially trigger a nuclear launch depending on the political climate and such at the time. We need better eyes, if for nothing else than the avert that kind of "misunderstanding" which could lead to an existential crisis.
What does this mean? Wouldn't the distribution of asteroid hits be essentially memoryless? That is, the fact that we have not had one in recent history has almost zero bearing on the probability of one happening in the future.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/11/the-next...
I thought that as the solar system ages these sorts of event become much less frequent, as orbits of these bodies decay and huge gravity wells (like Jupiter) suck them up?
Still, it's much better to solve both. Especially since space technology is still in its infancy. Abandoning either would be a folly.
Things end. Do not let your personal intuition override that universal truth.
Space exploration excites hopes and dreams, promising expanded horizons and to avail ourselves of new resources with which to improve our lives, and the lives of our loved ones, and their loved children, and their loved children, and so on and so forth. Do not let universal truths override your personal intuition as to the value and meaning of striving towards these goals, even if someday the eventual heat death of the universe will almost certainly put an end to it all.
Think also how would the world look if we could have "loved now" 5000 years ago, and thus never developed past proto-agriculture.
Life seems to be pretty rare[1]. At least on the order of once per solar system. Nervous systems capable of thought also seem rare, based on terran history. Analytical thought a fortiori. We are very possibly the only species capable of understanding the universe within at least a rather large radius. Inter-planetary life is really freaking difficult, but it is a complete cakewalk in comparison to interstellar living, let alone intergalactic life. How many shots does this universe get at understanding itself before the whole thing heat-dies? And, who knows, maybe even doing something about that heat death.
I think that matters. Life matters. Consciousness matters. Beyond it just being ours[2].
Earth is a paradise, but a fragile one. If earthly life (not just humans, any life) is going to end up spreading across the solar system, we are by far their best shot.
Perhaps if all life were destroyed nothing would be lost, because things end. Perhaps the entropy of a dead child is no more significant than the entropy of a cooling car engine. Perhaps the existence of the universe is itself irrelevant. After all, what (and to whom) would it matter if it ended? Starting with different assumptions gives different conclusions. I don't think there is any way to prove either axioms correct. But whether you agree or not, the assumption is somewhat different to the one you identified. And there is – at least – a 'why'.
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[1] The question of the prevalence of different complexities of life is – in my experience – a perfectly tuned discussion for 'well actually's. All of my second paragraph can be quibbled. But I don't think any step would invalidate what I'm doing with it.
[2] In fact, I think is likely that the intelligent life we end up sending interstellar will be descended at least as much from human technology as human biology, perhaps overwhelmingly more so. But again that is not directly relevant to my point here.
And by 'dealing with', I don't mean 'flying off, and leaving the rest of us to deal with the shit.'
I don't think so. He was going to launch rockets anyway. And also the way was there for long time - yet SpaceX was the first company which successfully reached orbit among new space companies.
Musk started at the same time as these other private space companies, just with a different approach. Most of it is there in these 2003 videos: https://searchworks.stanford.edu/?f%5Bauthor_person_facet%5D...
I think reality is that doing business with space is tricky, and requires complex combinations of luck, money, perseverance, experience - approximately in this order, but still tricky.
"Where there is a will, there's a way" means that if you are motivated enough you will find a way to succeed. Which as I understood was your first point. That if billionaires creates these ventures people will be inspired and go on to succeed. That was also Musk's initial idea, that he would do this stunt of sending a plant to Mars and people would get more interested in funding and do space exploration.
"Where there is a way, there's a will" is the opposite. That if you can find a way to do something, people will want to do it. This is what SpaceX ended up doing, trying to be a part of the space industry.
In one of the videos he compares space and the Internet. That the Internet was first created by DARPA who did the ground work and that private companies commercialized and made it accessible. He suggest that space could be similar with NASA doing the ground work and private companies commercializing and making it accessible. That is why he moved the company to Los Angeles instead of the Bay Area, why they got government contracts, why they started with satellites and then cargo etc. And of course it is also luck, timing and everything else. But it was certainly also specifically because the idea wasn't to fund something to inspire or to do space tourism.
Although that would have been solidboosters + spaceguns- and automated in orbit-assembly.
Power inevitably becomes centered in a small group. This seems to be an immutable trait of either power itself or people-groups in general. Regardless, it is unavoidable everywhere except on paper, which is to say conjecturally.
Also, billionaires dying don't kill industries. They might kill devastatingly expensive pet hobbies,but not industries.
It always feels good to predict that humans would be getting along swimmingly if it weren't for a handful of bad actors, but there really isn't a case for this expectation based on history. What there is a case for, as has been demonstrated countless times in literally every human endeavor, is an ordered hierarchy pursuing a declared set of goals and reaping unintended/unexpected benefit and detriment along the way. It is like pushing a boulder from point A to B; sometimes it needs to be pushed up hill and other times it must be guided downhill. The idea that "it would be so great if we stopped pushing boulders up hill and only guided them downhill" (a metaphorical interpretation of the happy, co-equal group of like minded workers) ignores the topographical reality of effort, endeavor, intention, and challenge.
Now, you are assuming the government won’t step in even when the individuals no longer want to do it. Either they’ll revamp nasa or start handing out subsidies. Either way it’s the government stepping in. Unless there’s another way that I’m missing?
Cut defence spending to the level of other western countries (i. e. about half), reverse the tax cuts for corporations and you're back to a balanced budget.
The debt of $22 trillion is still there, but inflation and economic growth cut it in half in about a decade in real terms.
I thought Allen still left quite a bit of money for his space projects?
This most likely was just a rational business choice based on their research and market testing. The parent company Vulcan Inc is still likely to continue.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/05/the-worlds-largest-a...
Maybe the museum up near Portland that has the Spruce Goose will take it.
I was on a wine tour and on the way back to the hotel looked out the window and was gobsmacked. “Woah... that’s the Spruce Goose! The Spruce Goose is here!?!”
Cancelled the next day’s tour and hit up the museum instead.
Highly recommended.
And a 747 on the roof.
More about the Glomar Explorer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Azorian
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Giant_planes_compari...
I'm a bit afraid that this might be Blue Origin's fate if Bezos suddenly died.
SpaceX would maybe be no longer be as ambitious anymore as it used to be if Musk went away but at least they're actually selling things and have a working business model. (TSLAQ hate crew objections incoming in 3..2..1.. ;)