Robocrop: world's first raspberry-picking robot set to work
theguardian.com
theguardian.com
So I'm ambivalent about this. On the one hand, awesome that yet another crappy job is being automated. On the other hand, that job literally saved my life - I was homeless and struggling until that opportunity came along, and it lead on to a career that has kept me secure ever since.
How do we replace the crappy low-skilled, low-paying jobs that we're automating, but that also allow people to stay alive while they sort themselves out?
Note the 'almost'. I'm sure some outliers exist but that's not what we're talking about.
You get charged interest. Then, you might have your wages garnished. If that isn't sufficient, your bank accounts might get frozen. If that still isn't sufficient, liens.
In practice this would mean that all jobs would pay RSUs of some kind. If you rent then you are getting some of the equity of the house as well, so that when it is sold you benefit and not just the landlord.
The idea is basically that everyone should benefit from capitalism, not the just the lucky few with all the capital.
I believe we lost a bunch of last years crop to this issue and maybe this years. The drop in the pound since 2016 hasn't helped either.
Maybe we shouldn't be growing the stuff if the economics don't permit it. This is where the robots may help.
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit-and-the-workforce/why-are... : pretty sensible article on the subject, pointing out ways in which employers could improve their local hiring.
The skill you are discussing is to pick them fast enough for profitability. Thats true of any job.
And yet, that is literally not the case.
Resisting boredom and maintain focus in grueling conditions are a skill.
Two things. Neither of these is meant to be hateful.
1. Which is more likely: That society as a whole will evolve into a benevolent post-scarcity society providing basic necessities for everyone in it, or that our new-age feudal lord-owners of everything will use automation to drive costs down far enough so that everyone can juuuuust afford to live?
2. Doesn't post-scarcity require energy inputs from a non-depleting resource?
To answer your point 2. Solar and wind should keep us going for a few millenia?
I have a feeling the future is more likely going to be a Bruce Willis or Will Smith movie.
Take education more seriously and make it more accessible. I don't know how to do that, but I feel it needs doin'.
After all the 'interest rate targeting' function of the central bank, and the unelected wonks that run it, is supposed to guarantee full employment. If it isn't doing so, then those who screwed up should obviously pay the price of their failure.
That it acts as a powerful targeted automatic stabiliser injecting liquidity temporally and spatially on demand into local economies in a manner bank lending could never hope to match is just an added bonus.
> The ability to sell your labour to the central bank at the living wage, who then allocates it to local democracy to use as local democracy sees fit working for the public good.
How would a central bank determine allocations to various municipalities? This step necessarily requires discretion on the part of the central bank. Such a policy would distort the labor market, crowding out private sector employment and potentially producing malinvestment. It would also increase the power of the central bank, which is not necessarily desirable if the unelected nature of central bankers is a concern.
> the 'interest rate targeting' function of the central bank... is supposed to guarantee full employment
The Federal Reserve bank has a dual mandate of stable, low inflation and low unemployment. Central banks in many other countries are mandated only to maintain stable, low inflation.
> That it acts as a powerful targeted automatic stabiliser
There are other automatic stabilizers that can be implemented independent of the central bank. In the United States, for example, tax incentives for employer provided health insurance have a procyclical effect, as decreased employment during recession causing reduced healthcare expenditures.
> bank lending could never hope to match
Global lending has been distorted since 2008 due to the Federal Reserve's interest on excess reserves policy. The combination of increased reserve requirements, increased bank reserves due to the fed's enlarged balance sheet, and the availability of a risk free return on reserves has reduced the overall quantity of loans relative to prior trends. Even small, local banks, who would otherwise like to make loans and are subject to less stringent reserve requirements, have increased the reserves on hand due to the breakdown of the federal funds market caused by IOER. It's hard to definitively state that bank lending is less effective than other policy when it's been hampered by central bank policy for a decade.
It's applicable to all nations. You could have a currency that is specifically for this job. As long as you remember to tax it out of existence at the other end.
"This step necessarily requires discretion on the part of the central bank. "
The process in the UK is straightforward. It follows the existing Universal Credit system. The indidividual presents themselves at the local Job Centre, the Job Centre signs them up and allocates them as local democracy dictates to jobs in the area (whether working for local councils, or local charities as the municipality dictates). The job program signs off timesheets which are filed with the UC programme, and then the UC is paid - directly by the central bank. Rather than a 'Treasury' account, you use a 'Job Guarantee' account to charge the bill to. Other than than the process is the same.
"The Federal Reserve bank has a dual mandate of stable, low inflation and low unemployment. "
Which it is failing to keep. Central banks without employment targets have high unemployment - particularly if government is constrained.
"There are other automatic stabilizers that can be implemented independent of the central bank."
Not and allow a balanced budget provision at the same time.
"Global lending has been distorted since 2008 due to the Federal Reserve's interest on excess reserves policy"
Without that central interest rates would be zero. The natural rate of interest is zero in the interbank - as any banker will tell you. Central banks interfere in the market to raise rates.
Reserves have no control function over bank lending. At all. Ever.
And anyway that misses the point. Bank lending takes time, which as any student of dynamic systems knows introduces unstable harmonics into the response function. The reaction is precisely the same as trying to stabilise a skidding car with a steering wheel. Get too big a skid and you can't counter it because you can't respond fast enough. Then the car crashes.
What if it really is worth the living wage, but the Allocator wants to cheat you?
'Basic Income, Not Basic Jobs: Against Hijacking Utopia.'
https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/05/16/basic-income-not-basic...
I think the main argument should be fundamented by charitable assumption, that most people actually have decent plans for employability and could use the available time much better than being stuck on a Job Guarantee (that could have very low marginal value to the employer anyway).
Once with the output of other people who are using up their finite lives working for output from you, and once self consuming your own time.
Unsurprisingly those working resent this, as they'd rather have Friday off than work an extra day to produce output for people who are producing nothing for them in return.
The workers then agitate to have the income removed from those not contributing. Which is why every basic income 'experiment' in history has failed.
Once you look at it in real terms, the fallacy of composition shows itself. You can't expect others to give up hours of their lives for you if you don't demonstrably give up hours of your life for them in return.
Hence why you have a Job Guarantee (and frankly most of the private sector nonsense jobs out there). It is a public demonstration to those working the machines, that actually produce the output we need, that you are trying to give up hours in solidarity with them.
Then they won't feel they are being ripped off by working past Tuesday.
"that could have very low marginal value to the employer anyway"
It's the job of the employer to extract value. If they can't then they don't get paid. Capitalists only get paid if they transform labour hours into labour services effectively. If they can't, they go bust.
However the labour hours still need to be sold, because that is what keeps the labourer alive. You must give up hours of your life, if you expect others to do the same for you.
If value cannot be extracted, then it gets transferred from capitalists who have failed to do their job properly.
I think the way you frame the question points to one answer: ensure that people are able to stay alive even if unemployed. We have enough wealth, at least in first-world countries, to give everyone a basic level of housing, food, and healthcare. We could engineer society such that money isn't required to attain the first two levels of Maslow's hierarchy of needs.
This doesn't necessarily mean some hypothesized feared Communist/Socialist welfare state where everyone lives on the dole and no one works. Working would still be required for a good, fulfilling life. But the safety net would catch you before you get so destitute that you die.
The current system has wealth. If we changed to that system, all definitions would be less of what they are now, so you'd have to bake in the idea that more people are now building cheap housing in random places, and that grocery stores are given food non-stop to feed those people, and that doctors will want to live near them.
It doesn't account for the droves of people that may stop working because we don't _think_ like the people that work for Chipotle that no longer want to do so. We're all fucking programmers (well a lot of us are).
Universal basic income?
You will get far better returns breeding and genetically modifying the plants to be easier to pick or shake the berries loose than any robot ive ever seen. Sure, it is technically feasible, but nobody is going to spend a million dollars on a robot that doesn't pick faster than an experienced human, it would take multiple decades to pay itself off even if you assumed the power and maintenance was free.
Maybe in another 10 years it will be worth seriously looking into berry picking robots again, but berries are literally the hardest and most difficult fruit for a robot to pick. Uneven ripening, very delicate fruits, tangled messes of plant vines, very little maneuvering room, ect. It is like trying to automate a rally car before you are able to automate an oval track race.
I wonder if someone experiment with some kind of scaffolding that would make fruits more exposed and easer to pick.
If the problem can be reduced to separating objects of different characteristics from a process flow, existing food processing techniques like vibrating belts and air guns can handle it, no need for robot arms.
And if one field can support a wider array of crops, they can produce more for local consumption, and lower transportation distances and costs.
Of course, by random I mean specific crops chosen for their compability to each other...
[0] https://deepgreenpermaculture.com/permaculture/permaculture-... (I really like that image of corns, beans, and squash together from traditional Mesoamerican farming)
It works in my backyard garden and neighborhood urban CSA. The CSA could increase their production significantly if/when technology like this matures. Most of my local, seasonal produce needs can already be supported within a few block radius of my home.
I too appreciate the diversity of thought on HN... lots of experts to share their knowledge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_cropping
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyculture
Theres no reason why you couldn't do a 4 field crop rotation in one field.
Market gardens quite often have rows of different crops right next to each other.
If you're talking properly mixed up, 3 sisters planting did OK for Native North Americans. And many gardeners will sowing a row of radishes in with your parsnip rows because they germinate so slowly.
And that's without getting into forest gardening and permaculture.
Stopping austerity would help then?
I suppose you could be pedantic and point out it isn't actually picking.
(the robot featured seems to be using MX-64T's on the wrist)
The majority of raspberries are harvested by machine and have been for decades. Handpicking is only necessary for high quality fresh berries.
Until then it's just like any other flaky and slow robot grasper demos out there trained using various flaky deep reinforcement learning algorithms.
I believe that right now we're at the very start of this. Robots were supposed to come for all our manual labor jobs years ago, but they never did, because if it's not a pure assembly line environment, robots can't cope with the uncertainty. Research in robotics is increasing and getting places fast, largely due to advances in reinforcement learning.
I give it another 2 or 3 years until we have a robot hand with a camera that acts as dexterous and capable as a human hand. Once we have that, tons of opportunities like this raspberry picking are open for automation.
-some guy, circa 1975
Taking into account that the time of day it's picked has a dramatic effect on a raspberry's taste, these robots may only be useful with artificially illuminated crops... or to pick those "raspberry shaped" flavorless things.
Same goes for grapes and several other fruits.
That sounds amazing and impossible, for something that needs to move a gripper around the stems and leaves of an actual ("unguided", natural) plant. But I'm no process automation engineer or roboticist, so I'm just looking forward to the amazement. :)
Or four grippers: two on each side for different heights.
It depends, on one hand we have people trying to make Robot act like human, and could easily adopt to many of our job, I think we are still at least another 10 - 15 years away from that. But Robotic Automation for a few specific job is much much closer ( if not already here ) , I don't think it really ever was a "technical" challenges, it is the cost of these development has come down, from manufacturing them in China to Software development tools that make them work. The cost of the final product vs the possible economical advantage has finally reached a point where many of these make sense.
More often, if not in all cases, it is always the economical side of things that makes the call, not the technical side of it.
The performance needs to be given as a ratio with some other important variable like cost so it can meaningfully be compared to humans or other robots.
Also the title is bombastic, 25k/day is what they expect to be able to build by 2020
There are much better robotic fruit pickers.[2][3]. And the commercial ones that do this entirely by mechanical means.[4]
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFemWAXx-3I
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaL3UxUclKY
2 = Apples outdoor. Camera and three-finger gripper + twist + pull
3 = Strawberries indoor/outdoor. Camera and two-finger gripper + pull.
4 = Blueberries + raspberries outdoor. Multiple general agitator designs + fall. (see https://youtu.be/bt73GOk4JRY?t=100)
I think the fourth is the only honestly commercially viable option. However, it's never going to work with most fruit, because it relies upon general agitation to disconnect the fruit.
Additionally, all of the solutions require neatly cropped rows. Whereas, the promise of robotics is that it will allow intercropping which creates more productive land with a stronger and more natural ecosystem, reducing outlays on pesticide, herbicide, fertilizer and related labour and increasing effective crop density and land use. None of these solutions even touch on these very real opportunities.
FWIW, I am personally confident that my R&D team (who normally work on food production and packaging robotics) could produce a functionally superior prototype to the OP video in a matter of weeks, for a fraction of the budget.
Certainly with my own robots I can pick raspberrys much faster and better than those guys can currently do.
This thing is extremely slow. I am wondering what kind of engineering those people have used for it to be so slow. Probably they are using java or python or mathlab code, instead of using things like C, shaders and FPGA code, expecting the creation of this low level code to be the "easy" part(in the future of course).
From my experience, your greatest advantage is the ability to master those low level technologies. It has to be designed around this technologies and not as an after thought like this project looks.